gipple

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY6INyOaLGs&t=133s

Excargodog

I think you are partially correct. The US will get back to normal, although it will be June before we can possibly have enough vaccine to give it to everyone that wants it. And to actually get it to (and in) everyone who wants it is probably going to take the rest of the year. “The world” though, is a different critter. There has only been one disease eradicated by vaccination in history - that was smallpox - and that effort took 180 years. We ALMOST had polio wiped out, before COVID largely shut down that effort, and we’ve had a good polio vaccine since the mid 1950s. The world is a bug place and many places don’t even have refrigerators, far less -90 degree freezers.

but yeah, in most first world nations I think COVID will be largely gone in 18 months. For the rest of the world? Well, this will give you an idea of some of the challenges we’ll be facing:

https://www.prb.org/challengestoglob...ationprograms/

Nacho Libre

I absolutely agree with you here. IMO the US normalcy will probably coincide with the start of schools and colleges at the end of August beginning of September. We all wish it were sooner and for many people, once the family has had their chance to be vaccinated you will see social distancing go away quickly.

It’s likely masking will be in some places since different locations are more likely to be restrictive. Again just an opinion. Even the average Joe and Jane that have taken this whole pandemic in stride, been diligent about distancing, masking, and all the other challenges that we have all faced over the last year will just be DONE with it.

Lastly, I would like to say that over the last year so many of us, those that we care about, families, kids, our neighbors have had a rough year. Heck many of us here have as well. We may not always agree, and often we may strongly disagree, but I do wish everyone a better and less stressful 2021.

chucknorris

Fair enough, though I think vaccine available to anyone who wants it in the US will be April or May. About 35% of the population wants nothing to do with it, a further 10-20% aren’t eligible (children). So it’s likely we achieve supply exceeding demand right around 200 million people vaccinated. Here’s the current distribution numbers, roughly:




Sorry about the image size, tried to resize it. If this is the case above, supply and demand should start to intersect in April or may.

Then it’s a problem of shots in the arm. One thing Congress is doing right is giving a lot of money to hospitals to get shots in arms. As such, people like my wife who are paid very well are being offered shifts to vaccinate people. Usually she would be WAY overqualified for such a thing, but they are going as far as offering moonlight money, which to doctors PAs and NPs can be serious coin, and will motivate them to “volunteer”.

Think how fast a relief effort would go if they had unlimited supply and Jets, but not enough rampers and they offered premium A320 pay for pilots to throw bags.

Huell

Its not very nice to pick on the clueless.

Escargot

I don't disagree with you, but am genuinely curious how you count the "symptomless spreaders"? That counts as getting the virus, I guess

galaxy flyer

Maybe 130 years, medical experts say COVID is becoming endemic, we will get used to having it around for decades.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vacc...d=hp_lead_pos3

chucknorris

The flu of 1918 is still around. Enough immunity exists though that it’s largely harmless. This will become the same, a spreading coronavirus similar to a cold.

chucknorris

Let them spread it. We cannot continue like this in perpetuity. If you get the vaccine then you will likely get zero or very mild symptoms from exposure, if you choose not to and you infect other people then it is what it is, those people should have made a different choice if they didn’t want the virus. I feel bad for the people that cannot get the vaccine for some reason, but we cannot pause indefinitely for the few.

Excargodog

Eventually? Yes. There are four other coronaviruses that are fairly common that do just produce colds in humans. And the fact is that COVID -19 isn’t really ALL that deadly. In Italy the median age of those killed by COVID was about 80. And life expectancy for people confined to nursing homes and long term care facilities was only about 2.2 years BEFORE COVID.

But as a society we have really demonized COVID 19, and that demonization itself is going to taint the recovery for quite awhile.