Natural Immunity vs Vaccine:
09-20-2021, 12:25 PM
#331
Banned
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: 3+ hour sit in the ATL
Posts: 1,982
Originally Posted by Excargodog
ANTIBODY TESTING: It too is a gray area and has nuance. There is an old saying in military procurement: Fast, cheap, reliable… pick two. Antibody testing is sort of like that, but probably worse.
Let’s just talk about a couple of issues, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is how reliable the test is at picking up a positive result if it is really there. Specificity is how reliable the test is at telling you that a negative result is truly a negative result, essentially, how accurate at avoiding false positives. Well guess what, you only get to pick one, and the rest is essentially mathematical - through something called Conditional Probability. Read up on Bayes Theorem.
You ADJUST your test depending on which you are after, but you don’t get both. You want to not miss a single case of COVID, even if you get a lot of false positives? Just crank up the amplifications on the PCR. You want to not get a lot of false positives? Crank down the amplification. You may miss a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases, but the ones you get will be for damn SURE positive.
Now what you are REALLY after is something called Predictive Value Positive (the probability that a test positive is a true positive) and the Predictive Value Negative (the probability that a test negative is a true negative). Well guess what? Pick one.
But it’s even worse than that, because even if you could get everybody to agree on the same specificity and sensitivity (and you can’t), the PVP and PVN VARIES depending on disease prevalence (again, see an online explanation of Bayes Theorem), which you don’t actually know with certainty or you wouldn’t be testing for it in the first place.
All of which makes the dogmatism by both sides on COVID laughable. MOST of those most adamant do not know what the h€|| they are talking about and that is WHY they are so adamant. Most of those who do understand, realize it’s far more nuanced than either side knows or cares about. And some - on both sides - who do understand are purposely exaggerating the story to push their preferred way of dealing with it.
But basically, you aren’t wrong. Eventually this WILL burn out. Vaccines have their place but they won’t SOLVE the problem. The only human pathogenic virus to ever be wiped out by vaccination was smallpox and that was much less contagious, had a far longer lasting vaccine, and still took 180 years to eliminate.
Let’s just talk about a couple of issues, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is how reliable the test is at picking up a positive result if it is really there. Specificity is how reliable the test is at telling you that a negative result is truly a negative result, essentially, how accurate at avoiding false positives. Well guess what, you only get to pick one, and the rest is essentially mathematical - through something called Conditional Probability. Read up on Bayes Theorem.
You ADJUST your test depending on which you are after, but you don’t get both. You want to not miss a single case of COVID, even if you get a lot of false positives? Just crank up the amplifications on the PCR. You want to not get a lot of false positives? Crank down the amplification. You may miss a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases, but the ones you get will be for damn SURE positive.
Now what you are REALLY after is something called Predictive Value Positive (the probability that a test positive is a true positive) and the Predictive Value Negative (the probability that a test negative is a true negative). Well guess what? Pick one.
But it’s even worse than that, because even if you could get everybody to agree on the same specificity and sensitivity (and you can’t), the PVP and PVN VARIES depending on disease prevalence (again, see an online explanation of Bayes Theorem), which you don’t actually know with certainty or you wouldn’t be testing for it in the first place.
All of which makes the dogmatism by both sides on COVID laughable. MOST of those most adamant do not know what the h€|| they are talking about and that is WHY they are so adamant. Most of those who do understand, realize it’s far more nuanced than either side knows or cares about. And some - on both sides - who do understand are purposely exaggerating the story to push their preferred way of dealing with it.
But basically, you aren’t wrong. Eventually this WILL burn out. Vaccines have their place but they won’t SOLVE the problem. The only human pathogenic virus to ever be wiped out by vaccination was smallpox and that was much less contagious, had a far longer lasting vaccine, and still took 180 years to eliminate.
You know speaking of polio go look up transverse myelitis just to prove how good that jab was.. no more disease if no doc can call it polio anymore
Nuanced as crgo dog says? Yes, a little but the fauci side of this has blown it way out the other galaxy. There is middle ground, many real physicians know what it is. Unfortunately they get banned, muted and "fact checked" into silence.
If you watched any of the FDA hearing video I posted you'd see real doctors telling you truth unlaced with political agenda and bias.
09-20-2021, 12:52 PM
#332
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,504
Originally Posted by Drum
I posted this in a thread the mods deleted
I had my 8 month antibody test this month.
My N antibodies = 139.15
My S antibodies = 250
Most with jabs only see a bit higher initially than mine but hit that "250" number in about 2-3 months.
I'm going on 8months. No jabs either.
I posted a scatter plot on one of the COVID 19 threads from a recent study that backs up that natural immunity is longer lasting, more resilient and adapted to mutations better than the jabs
I had my 8 month antibody test this month.
My N antibodies = 139.15
My S antibodies = 250
Most with jabs only see a bit higher initially than mine but hit that "250" number in about 2-3 months.
I'm going on 8months. No jabs either.
I posted a scatter plot on one of the COVID 19 threads from a recent study that backs up that natural immunity is longer lasting, more resilient and adapted to mutations better than the jabs
My kids' pediatrician was in the Pfizer Stage 3 trial. At 13 months after her second shot, her quantitative antibody score was 320; not sure how that compares with your N/S scores.
At 4.5 months after my second Pfizer dose, my quantitative measured 828 for spike.
Apples-to-apples with you? I dunno.
09-20-2021, 01:22 PM
#333
Banned
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: 3+ hour sit in the ATL
Posts: 1,982
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
Two data points:
My kids' pediatrician was in the Pfizer Stage 3 trial. At 13 months after her second shot, her quantitative antibody score was 320; not sure how that compares with your N/S scores.
At 4.5 months after my second Pfizer dose, my quantitative measured 828 for spike.
Apples-to-apples with you? I dunno.
My kids' pediatrician was in the Pfizer Stage 3 trial. At 13 months after her second shot, her quantitative antibody score was 320; not sure how that compares with your N/S scores.
At 4.5 months after my second Pfizer dose, my quantitative measured 828 for spike.
Apples-to-apples with you? I dunno.
I'm not a doctor.
The breakdown from the lab corp antibody test was described to me by my doc
She said, I guessed you missed it in my post, that the jabbed see 250 ish on the S typically around the 2-3 month timeframe. I'm seeing it 8 months on
See post #289 this thread. It's a good study
Might clue you in a bit.
09-20-2021, 01:49 PM
#334
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,504
My test was done at LabCorp.
4.5 mo after 2nd Pfizer dose, my spike was 828.
I can’t speak for what your doctor has told you or seen, or what anybody else experiences; I simply offer two data points for comparison with your own.
I’ll get another test at the 6 month mark and will report back my result.
4.5 mo after 2nd Pfizer dose, my spike was 828.
I can’t speak for what your doctor has told you or seen, or what anybody else experiences; I simply offer two data points for comparison with your own.
I’ll get another test at the 6 month mark and will report back my result.
09-20-2021, 06:32 PM
#335
Speed, Power, Accuracy
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: PIC
Posts: 1,699
Originally Posted by Drum
That's false.
The titer plots I posted prove it.
Further the jabs only target that specific protein on the spike ( think it's the S1) not the whole bug unlike natural.
Most of what you wrote is almost pure fauci propaganda.
Now maybe, just maybe with boosters every 6 months in perpetuity, then yes.
But what you wrote is abjectively false. Even Dr Gupta would agree.
The titer plots I posted prove it.
Further the jabs only target that specific protein on the spike ( think it's the S1) not the whole bug unlike natural.
Most of what you wrote is almost pure fauci propaganda.
Now maybe, just maybe with boosters every 6 months in perpetuity, then yes.
But what you wrote is abjectively false. Even Dr Gupta would agree.
09-21-2021, 07:15 AM
#336
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,120
Plenty of prognosticators here correctly predicted a surge in domestic flying resuming quickly.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
Last edited by DeltaboundRedux; 03-15-2022 at 07:01 AM.
09-21-2021, 08:34 AM
#337
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,234
Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux
Plenty of prognosticators here correctly predicted a surge in domestic flying resuming quickly.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
09-21-2021, 08:41 AM
#338
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,480
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
Once everyone gets sick or once boosters are approved for use every 6 months.
09-21-2021, 08:54 AM
#339
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,210
Originally Posted by DeltaboundRedux
Plenty of prognosticators here correctly predicted a surge in domestic flying resuming quickly.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
Anyone care to guess when the general public will once again be able to fly without a mask? If, indeed, ever again?
Singapore is what a VERY strict, high smarts, highly vaccinated, clean, high social capital place looks like. Masks and vaxs don't seem sufficient.
As long as vaccination prevents severe covid in most people, people will get used to it. It ultimately will evolve into "just the flu"... one way or another.
If necessary vaccines (especially mRNA) can be readily tweaked to address new strains... just like the flu shot.
It was fun for a while for some people, but folks are getting tired of it.
09-21-2021, 12:49 PM
#340
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,120
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Those are cases, not severe covid or fatalities.
As long as vaccination prevents severe covid in most people, people will get used to it. It ultimately will evolve into "just the flu"... one way or another.
If necessary vaccines (especially mRNA) can be readily tweaked to address new strains... just like the flu shot.
It was fun for a while for some people, but folks are getting tired of it.
As long as vaccination prevents severe covid in most people, people will get used to it. It ultimately will evolve into "just the flu"... one way or another.
If necessary vaccines (especially mRNA) can be readily tweaked to address new strains... just like the flu shot.
It was fun for a while for some people, but folks are getting tired of it.
Never meant to imply otherwise.
The current reasoning behind zero-tolerance masking on airplanes is to "stop the spread", even if only by an infinitesimal amount.
Singapore is a good case study that, even with masks, vaccinations, good personal hygiene, and a cultural acceptance of both government mandates and social practices for masking, there really doesn't seem to be an end to the spreading of Covid.
So, the question is, when can US airlines expect to move past mandatory masking? The current zeitgeist seems like "never", or at least, "years". Flu season will be in full force when the airline mask mandate comes into review next January.
Doesn't seem to be impacting demand all that much. Maybe this is just the "new normal".
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