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Excargodog 11-17-2021 07:10 AM

Two shots not enough…
 
Will three be enough? We won’t know for another six months or so if a third immunization provides longer lasting neutralizing antibodies - the kind that keep you from GETTING and SPREADING COVID 19 - any longer than the first 6 months, or if we’ve already hit the law of diminishing returns and even totally healthy will be susceptible whenever we’ve gone six months without a booster. And that’s important, because I doubt that every six month boosters are logistically or politically possible, not in the US and certainly not in the entire world population, many of whom have not yet had their FIRST immunization yet.

https://i.ibb.co/w4W7qR0/97-AF9-C01-...891726-CA5.jpg

An excerpt:


People vaccinated with two shots of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine in January and February had a 51% increased chance of contracting the virus in July compared to those who were vaccinated in March or April, a new Israeli study published in Nature Communications has shown.
The team of researchers from KI Institute worked with doctors from KSM Research and Innovation and used data provided by Maccabi Health Services to conduct a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence rates of breakthrough infections and COVID-19-related hospitalizations between people vaccinated toward the beginning of the country’s campaign (January and February) and those vaccinated toward the later stages (March and April). The study included more than 1.3 million records.
As noted, the risk of infection was significantly higher for people the earlier they were vaccinated, with an additional trend for high risk of hospitalization. The results, the researchers said, are consistent with other studies on the subject that show a decline in antibody levels and immune system compounds after four to six months.

The study was done as the Delta variantwas burning across the country and many believed that the variant may be the cause of increased infection in Israel. Mizrahi said the study shows that the variant was likely less of a factor than assumed – though this is still not confirmed.
Will the third dose last longer?
Mizrahi said that it is difficult to tell at this stage. Very preliminary data has started to be collected in various studies that shows antibodies are waning after the third shot, too. However, he said that the level of antibodies is not the only factor when it comes to immunity. Officials will need to watch and see if infections start going up and then set vaccination policy accordingly, Mizrahi said.
“I don’t think it will take us that long to know,” he concluded.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get immunized - you certainly should if you haven’t already had COVID. What it does mean is that we are likely going to have to learn to live with COVID. Current vaccines certainly aren’t going to stamp it out. And that is going to require a serious attitude adjustment that many people - including politicians - seem incapable of making.

DeltaboundRedux 11-17-2021 08:07 AM

Can an iCrew pop-up "Your vaccination status will expire next month" be far behind? (tongue in cheek, of course, because HIPPA)

rickair7777 11-17-2021 08:39 AM

If necessary, there will be adjusted vaccines to improve duration and address variants.

Worst case might be an annual booster, like the flu shot but I tend to think that once the variant production slows down that boosters won't be required as often.

Also it depends on whether the goal is to avoid death, or avoid infection? At some point we'll probably be good as long as people aren't afraid of dying... good chance that immunity of any sort will provide fairly long protection against severe covid. Just like the flu shot... if you're at risk, better get the booster. If not, it's a personal decision based on the nuisance factor.

Excargodog 11-17-2021 09:06 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3323966)
If necessary, there will be adjusted vaccines to improve duration and address variants.

Worst case might be an annual booster, like the flu shot but I tend to think that once the variant production slows down that boosters won't be required as often.

Also it depends on whether the goal is to avoid death, or avoid infection? At some point we'll probably be good as long as people aren't afraid of dying... good chance that immunity of any sort will provide fairly long protection against severe covid. Just like the flu shot... if you're at risk, better get the booster. If not, it's a personal decision based on the nuisance factor.

Why would the variant risk die down? This is a worldwide pandemic, and even if we were to vaccinate 100% of our citizens, there are billions of other people out there that have not yet gotten their first jab, far less all the white-tailed deer, ferrets, mink, etc. Now that it has jumped out of bats, it’s become pretty widely disseminated.

How does one adjust duration without adjuvants that will likely increase - at least to some extent - the side effects and/or risk of the vaccine itself?

But even then, this public health problem appears to have been so badly managed by Fauci and company that the percentage of people who are hardcore antivaxxers has increased, despite the demonstrated ability of the existing vaccines to limit severe clinical disease. You never get a second chance to make a first impression and the public opinion of the Public Health/Preventive Medicine community has taken some big hits. It seems doubtful a second vaccine rollout would go any better than the first one, even with an as yet only hypothetical better vaccine.

Just my opinion…

Mesabah 11-17-2021 09:12 AM

The vaccine is pretty dead, the updates are in trials right now, but they are 2-3 shots per year, and no one is going to do that. I think right now the focus should be on therapeutics, treating people when they first get symptoms, rather than waiting till they can't breathe anymore.

Nantonaku 11-17-2021 09:53 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3323977)
Why would the variant risk die down? This is a worldwide pandemic, and even if we were to vaccinate 100% of our citizens, there are billions of other people out there that have not yet gotten their first jab, far less all the white-tailed deer, ferrets, mink, etc. Now that it has jumped out of bats, it’s become pretty widely disseminated.

How does one adjust duration without adjuvants that will likely increase - at least to some extent - the side effects and/or risk of the vaccine itself?

But even then, this public health problem appears to have been so badly managed by Fauci and company that the percentage of people who are hardcore antivaxxers has increased, despite the demonstrated ability of the existing vaccines to limit severe clinical disease. You never get a second chance to make a first impression and the public opinion of the Public Health/Preventive Medicine community has taken some big hits. It seems doubtful a second vaccine rollout would go any better than the first one, even with an as yet only hypothetical better vaccine.

Just my opinion…

Agreed, the shots are not stopping the spread. They might prevent death for the time being. But if the shots aren't preventing spread why would the variants go away?

https://i.postimg.cc/zGrh3N9D/Screen...9-49-47-AM.png

rickair7777 11-17-2021 10:02 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3323977)
Why would the variant risk die down? This is a worldwide pandemic, and even if we were to vaccinate 100% of our citizens, there are billions of other people out there that have not yet gotten their first jab,

As more people acquire immunity (natural and/or vaccine induced), the reproductive opportunities, and thus mutation opportunities, for covid decline dramatically. There's actually a dramatic difference even between mild symptomatic and more severe symptoms with regards to the mutation opportunity... in fact you'd need logarithms to express it.

Also cross-reactivity should significantly dampen mutations... some mutations which might have a got a lot of traction in the original "novel" scenario will now wind up as nothing-burgers.

Delta evolved before vaccines, and got traction before there was very much vaccine or natural immunity.



Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3323977)
far less all the white-tailed deer, ferrets, mink, etc. Now that it has jumped out of bats, it’s become pretty widely disseminated.

Insignificant. Only way animals are giong to matter much is if it somehow gets established in a large live-stock population which exists in close-proximity to low socio-economic human populations such that the people cannot be isolated from the critters... like the pigs, chickens, peasants which bring us the flu each season. No sign of that so far. Rare exotics and wild animals which aren't a significant food stock are not going to be a significant vector.


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3323977)
How does one adjust duration without adjuvants that will likely increase - at least to some extent - the side effects and/or risk of the vaccine itself?

They have to balance the risk vs. benefits, and of course there will be trials first anyway.


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3323977)
But even then, this public health problem appears to have been so badly managed by Fauci and company that the percentage of people who are hardcore antivaxxers has increased, despite the demonstrated ability of the existing vaccines to limit severe clinical disease. You never get a second chance to make a first impression and the public opinion of the Public Health/Preventive Medicine community has taken some big hits. It seems doubtful a second vaccine rollout would go any better than the first one, even with an as yet only hypothetical better vaccine.

Agree with that, but most people who got the first vaccine will be fine with boosters, especially if they have large trials like the first ones. Fortunately with covid it's easy to do very large trails since the funding is available (either from .gov or private sector investing in a potentially lucrative product).

rickair7777 11-17-2021 10:08 AM


Originally Posted by Nantonaku (Post 3324010)
Agreed, the shots are not stopping the spread. They might prevent death for the time being. But if the shots aren't preventing spread why would the variants go away?

https://i.postimg.cc/zGrh3N9D/Screen...9-49-47-AM.png

Math. Specifically exponents.

1. The vaccines do reduce the spread.

2. Vaccines and natural immunity reduce severity: More severe covid will provide exponentially more mutation opportunities than less severe disease.

3. Cross-reactive immunity from existing natural or vaccine-induced immunity will mitigate many potential mutations.

People who have some existing immunity (which is getting to be most of us) provide less mutation opportunity.

Mesabah 11-17-2021 10:36 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3324014)
As more people acquire immunity (natural and/or vaccine induced), the reproductive opportunities, and thus mutation opportunities, for covid decline dramatically. There's actually a dramatic difference even between mild symptomatic and more severe symptoms with regards to the mutation opportunity... in fact you'd need logarithms to express it.

Yes, but variants don't start emerging from a person until several months into infection, these are very rare infections only in certain types of people.
From the head of Covid variant research at the NIH. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EF_pLZ_y5A

Excargodog 11-17-2021 11:11 AM


Originally Posted by Mesabah (Post 3324030)
Yes, but variants don't start emerging from a person until several months into infection, these are very rare infections only in certain types of people.
From the head of Covid variant research at the NIH. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EF_pLZ_y5A

How many people do we have living with HIV in this country alone? And in some poorly immunized African countries they have over 20% of the population living with HIV.

https://i.ibb.co/hx5vz9f/7-B2-C476-A...A6-C9-D4-F.jpg


How many with solid organ transplants? On chemo or radiotherapy? On high dose corticosteroids for other reasons?

There will be AMPLE opportunities for mutation.


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