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Two shots not enough…

Will three be enough? We won’t know for another six months or so if a third immunization provides longer lasting neutralizing antibodies - the kind that keep you from GETTING and SPREADING COVID 19 - any longer than the first 6 months, or if we’ve already hit the law of diminishing returns and even totally healthy will be susceptible whenever we’ve gone six months without a booster. And that’s important, because I doubt that every six month boosters are logistically or politically possible, not in the US and certainly not in the entire world population, many of whom have not yet had their FIRST immunization yet.

https://i.ibb.co/w4W7qR0/97-AF9-C01-...891726-CA5.jpg

An excerpt:

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People vaccinated with two shots of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine in January and February had a 51% increased chance of contracting the virus in July compared to those who were vaccinated in March or April, a new Israeli study published in Nature Communications has shown.
The team of researchers from KI Institute worked with doctors from KSM Research and Innovation and used data provided by Maccabi Health Services to conduct a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence rates of breakthrough infections and COVID-19-related hospitalizations between people vaccinated toward the beginning of the country’s campaign (January and February) and those vaccinated toward the later stages (March and April). The study included more than 1.3 million records.
As noted, the risk of infection was significantly higher for people the earlier they were vaccinated, with an additional trend for high risk of hospitalization. The results, the researchers said, are consistent with other studies on the subject that show a decline in antibody levels and immune system compounds after four to six months.

The study was done as the Delta variantwas burning across the country and many believed that the variant may be the cause of increased infection in Israel. Mizrahi said the study shows that the variant was likely less of a factor than assumed – though this is still not confirmed.
Will the third dose last longer?
Mizrahi said that it is difficult to tell at this stage. Very preliminary data has started to be collected in various studies that shows antibodies are waning after the third shot, too. However, he said that the level of antibodies is not the only factor when it comes to immunity. Officials will need to watch and see if infections start going up and then set vaccination policy accordingly, Mizrahi said.
“I don’t think it will take us that long to know,” he concluded.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get immunized - you certainly should if you haven’t already had COVID. What it does mean is that we are likely going to have to learn to live with COVID. Current vaccines certainly aren’t going to stamp it out. And that is going to require a serious attitude adjustment that many people - including politicians - seem incapable of making.

Can an iCrew pop-up "Your vaccination status will expire next month" be far behind? (tongue in cheek, of course, because HIPPA)

If necessary, there will be adjusted vaccines to improve duration and address variants.

Worst case might be an annual booster, like the flu shot but I tend to think that once the variant production slows down that boosters won't be required as often.

Also it depends on whether the goal is to avoid death, or avoid infection? At some point we'll probably be good as long as people aren't afraid of dying... good chance that immunity of any sort will provide fairly long protection against severe covid. Just like the flu shot... if you're at risk, better get the booster. If not, it's a personal decision based on the nuisance factor.

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Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3323966)

Why would the variant risk die down? This is a worldwide pandemic, and even if we were to vaccinate 100% of our citizens, there are billions of other people out there that have not yet gotten their first jab, far less all the white-tailed deer, ferrets, mink, etc. Now that it has jumped out of bats, it’s become pretty widely disseminated.

How does one adjust duration without adjuvants that will likely increase - at least to some extent - the side effects and/or risk of the vaccine itself?

But even then, this public health problem appears to have been so badly managed by Fauci and company that the percentage of people who are hardcore antivaxxers has increased, despite the demonstrated ability of the existing vaccines to limit severe clinical disease. You never get a second chance to make a first impression and the public opinion of the Public Health/Preventive Medicine community has taken some big hits. It seems doubtful a second vaccine rollout would go any better than the first one, even with an as yet only hypothetical better vaccine.

Just my opinion…

The vaccine is pretty dead, the updates are in trials right now, but they are 2-3 shots per year, and no one is going to do that. I think right now the focus should be on therapeutics, treating people when they first get symptoms, rather than waiting till they can't breathe anymore.

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