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Old 03-04-2017, 06:22 AM
  #11  
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Interested to see how the CS100 is initially used at LAX. With roughly 110-120 seats, will it replace 717s on regional West Coast routes or will they leverage the 2,500+ mile range for longer, thinner routes? Should be interesting....
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Old 03-04-2017, 07:38 AM
  #12  
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If it was going to lax wouldn't they have said that in the update rather than "out of the southwest"

I think it's going to be our first virtual base


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Old 03-04-2017, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
Guessing 90% of 744 pilots displace to the 777. A couple of cushy years on reserve with those surpluses.
Let's look at the numbers. I'm looking at the captain numbers for this discussion. And remember the next bid will be a 365 day AE.

First I would guess less than 80% of the 744 pilots go to the 777. Many will go to the 350, and a few will go to the 330..depending on where they live. But let's say it's 80%.

There are currently about 105 744As. From April 2017 to May 2018 there are 19 744A retirements. That gets us down to 86 744As that will be on another aircraft in June 2018. 80% of that number means you have 69 744A displacements to the 777.

Between April 2017 and May 2018 there are 39 777A retirements. So if there are no displacements off the 777 you would be left with 30 extra captains spread over 3 bases. Not really a huge amount. Plus, I'm betting less than 80% of the 744As go to the 777. Further, I suspect there will be a fair number of 777 pilots who bid the 350.

Considering all the factors, I think they could easily let the 777 absorb the 744 displacements.
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Old 03-04-2017, 08:00 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Xray678 View Post
Let's look at the numbers. I'm looking at the captain numbers for this discussion. And remember the next bid will be a 365 day AE.

First I would guess less than 80% of the 744 pilots go to the 777. Many will go to the 350, and a few will go to the 330..depending on where they live. But let's say it's 80%.

There are currently about 105 744As. From April 2017 to May 2018 there are 19 744A retirements. That gets us down to 86 744As that will be on another aircraft in June 2018. 80% of that number means you have 69 744A displacements to the 777.

Between April 2017 and May 2018 there are 39 777A retirements. So if there are no displacements off the 777 you would be left with 30 extra captains spread over 3 bases. Not really a huge amount. Plus, I'm betting less than 80% of the 744As go to the 777. Further, I suspect there will be a fair number of 777 pilots who bid the 350.

Considering all the factors, I think they could easily let the 777 absorb the 744 displacements.
There will also be some who retire early and a bunch who go out on disability.
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Old 03-04-2017, 08:46 AM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Xray678 View Post
Let's look at the numbers. I'm looking at the captain numbers for this discussion. And remember the next bid will be a 365 day AE.



First I would guess less than 80% of the 744 pilots go to the 777. Many will go to the 350, and a few will go to the 330..depending on where they live. But let's say it's 80%.



There are currently about 105 744As. From April 2017 to May 2018 there are 19 744A retirements. That gets us down to 86 744As that will be on another aircraft in June 2018. 80% of that number means you have 69 744A displacements to the 777.



Between April 2017 and May 2018 there are 39 777A retirements. So if there are no displacements off the 777 you would be left with 30 extra captains spread over 3 bases. Not really a huge amount. Plus, I'm betting less than 80% of the 744As go to the 777. Further, I suspect there will be a fair number of 777 pilots who bid the 350.



Considering all the factors, I think they could easily let the 777 absorb the 744 displacements.


365 day AE?...sorry, what does that mean?


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Old 03-04-2017, 08:48 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by GyroNole View Post
365 day AE?...sorry, what does that mean?


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Normally the company has to convert you within 6 months but once a year they can designate an AE where they have a full year to convert. There are details regarding when they can do this which escape me, I just know it happens once a year.
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Old 03-04-2017, 08:53 AM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by MikeF16 View Post
Normally the company has to convert you within 6 months but once a year they can designate an AE where they have a full year to convert. There are details regarding when they can do this which escape me, I just know it happens once a year.


Aah thx....good to know

I start in 2 weeks and hope for a junior jet in ATL (88/717) to start as a commuter.

Its been ER-heavy the last 2 weeks...soooo, I would feel best taking anything ATL over an 88/717 to NYC then bidding ATL in the May AE...prolly would get it but who knows when I would convert.

2-legger up north sounds painful...I know, I know..."you'll be back in ATL in no time dude..."

...but, what if they drag it out?

Bid what (or where) I want...not what I hope to get after an AE sounds like good advice.


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Old 03-04-2017, 09:00 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by GyroNole View Post
365 day AE?...sorry, what does that mean?
Pursuant to 22.D.11, the Company may, at its discretion, extend the 210 day effective date of a vacancy bid that contains a displacement to 365 days, once per calendar year, based upon the award date of the bid. The key is that there must be a posted displacement/surplus in the vacancy bid.
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Old 03-04-2017, 09:18 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by Xray678 View Post
Let's look at the numbers. I'm looking at the captain numbers for this discussion. And remember the next bid will be a 365 day AE.

First I would guess less than 80% of the 744 pilots go to the 777. Many will go to the 350, and a few will go to the 330..depending on where they live. But let's say it's 80%.

There are currently about 105 744As. From April 2017 to May 2018 there are 19 744A retirements. That gets us down to 86 744As that will be on another aircraft in June 2018. 80% of that number means you have 69 744A displacements to the 777.

Between April 2017 and May 2018 there are 39 777A retirements. So if there are no displacements off the 777 you would be left with 30 extra captains spread over 3 bases. Not really a huge amount. Plus, I'm betting less than 80% of the 744As go to the 777. Further, I suspect there will be a fair number of 777 pilots who bid the 350.

Considering all the factors, I think they could easily let the 777 absorb the 744 displacements.
In my experience Boeing pilots all share one thing in common. They hate the Airbus.

You are talking about older pilots and they simply don't want the stress.
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Old 03-04-2017, 09:30 AM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by tunes View Post
If it was going to lax wouldn't they have said that in the update rather than "out of the southwest"

I think it's going to be our first virtual base


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I'm not sure you understand how the virtual base system is currently structured. To bid into a virtual base set up by the co you have to already be qualified on the aircraft. That is- they would have to set up a traditional base first, then a virtual base. Which wouldn't make a great deal of sense in the opening days of a new category when there is a limited supply of both qualified pilots and usable airplanes.

If they wanted to use somewhere "southwest" as a base other than LAX or SLC, they would basically be opening a new pilot base. I personally would love to see Vegas. That's pretty "Southwest" alright. I don't think it makes a ton of sense since layover expenses there aren't that much, and they would be feeding SEA and LAX the same as if they were based there.
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