Displacement
 

With displacements coming up, if the category closes before you go to training, what do you do after the category closes?

Stay home with pay.

It is going to be a multiple variable differential equation this May AE. 250+ retirements, new planes, planes being phased out, etc. My gut feeling is that the company will absorb some of it with new categories and by temporarily over staffing others, while dragging conversions over a long period of time. I say if you hold something that feels senior, for your seniority number (I am looking at you 2-3 year NYC 717A etc.), have a strong displacement bid juuuust in case.

I will be surprised if you see a lot of secondary displacements. Overall this is planned to be a very positive bid which should limit secondary displacements.

I think you're right. Plus I can't imagine them creating a situation that would tie up the sims. They're already running training at full capacity.

I predict I have no clue what will happen. Should be a fun ride.

Thanks, it had me thinking about this because I thought I read that the NYC M88 flying might be done by September and the last update said most conversions won't start until September.

Is there any pay protection with a displacement?

No. Was some limited protection at one time but that is gone.

Bingo.. can't wait to watch the hourly threads about when the results will get posted :D

I think CR has a good plan for this AE. By making it a 365 day AE they are able to capture all the vacancies created by retirement and deliveries during that time to more than offset the displacements. While there will be pockets of downward movement, I expect this bid to be positive overall. More people will move up than down.

why aren't the May AE results out yet?

No kidding. It's been -30 days already.:D

I think this is the most scientifically accurate post. No clue what will happen, too many variables.

If there are any secondary displacements they will be on the 777, 767-400 and 330.

I agree, it don't go below that other than a few limited areas.

Like CVG?
filler

Don't=won't

My prediction: some categories grossly overmanned, others grossly undermanned.

Make lemonade. GS/GSWC or bid reserve and take 6 months off.

The mandatory retirements in the next 365 days from the left seat of the 747, 777, 767-400 and 330 will accommodate all displaced captains without counting any A350 seats. There could be some pilots at the bottom of the 777 that get displaced if there is a strong Boeing preference, but it should be contained entirely on the 777. Any secondaries of 777 As would be absorbed by the mandatory retirements on the 2x4 and 330. Once the A350 vacancies are factored in, it is a net positive for WB left seaters.

The bigger variable is where the displaced FOs go. I expect many will choose to remain in right seat of a WB, however; there are some who will finish their FO years on the largest airplane flown at Delta and embark on the climb up the left seat ladder, rather than fly a smaller airplane.

I seriously doubt there will be much in the way of secondary displacements even from the large widebodies... there may even be significant movement given the retirements being accounted for.

One thing is certain- this is going to be a very interesting bid.

We need pilots flying the line, so any overmanning will be well calculated with a cost benefit analysis. We need pilots flying the line, so I think Crew Resources will run multiple scenarios over several days exploring the maximum limits of the training department.

Summer could be very Green with conflict with forecasts of Rolling Thunder(storms) all throughout the reserve system. The lazy days of Fall will be quite favorable for those who bid reserve. Those well versed in bidding reserve in a vacation month in an overstaffed category this fall will probably get an all expenses paid 1 day trip to the sim for bounces. We will likely see training stacked up in the last nine months of the conversion window to keep pilots on the line through the summer.

I just want to put this out there again about the next bid: In bidding the ATL 330 (or deciding to stay on), we're getting Lagos again this fall... and not daily. So at times 2-3 day layovers there. Just saying :)

I hear Lagos is a good time. Put on your dancing shoes and head to the Disco

If it's anything like the ER, Lagos will go fairly senior.

They can study it all they want. In 30 years I've never seen Delta even come close to getting it right when opening a new category or base.

I love Lagos. We are treated like royalty, riding in an armed motorcade with decoy vehicles to and from our gated/guarded castle. Inside the castle we have an assortment of food, beverage, entertainment and fitness options. The AK-47s, and bomb sniffer really add ambiance to the facility. It also gets really interesting when you spot a mosquito mid serve on the tennis court.





:D

24hr LOS layovers were senior to the 30hr GRU and EZE layovers because it pays 3 hours more, has a 4 pilot crew and operates on the same schedule. I don't think the 48 or 72 hr layovers were as popular.