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Quote:

Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot (Post 3205256)

Right click on the image you want to post. A menu will appear. Left click on the menu item; copy image. Come back here place the cursor where you want the image to appear press cntrl/v together and presto:

https://i.ibb.co/yFXHX8n/95379-F10-C...-B03-D0126.png

thanks! To this day I still cannot log into the forums on my desktop. I can only post from my iPhone. It’s been that way for years. Thus my inability to paste an image.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mispoken (Post 3205135)

You seem to read a lot about investing. Maybe too much? Everyone, their brother and their pets publish their tried and true method, their valuation models, their fool proof ratio etc. That’s all so complicated. We look for numbers to validate our feelings or something we just read. Conveniently, whomever published the book or article you’re reading can find all the data needed to back up what they sold you.

Im not opposed to reading these types of things for some abstract ideas, but when they narrow it down to something simple like “If XYZ ratio is below this # it’s a buy”, I disregard that.

How is this for value investing; if you invest in a company today, ignoring “valuation” and instead believe it’s product will expand around the world and revolutionize an industry (Tesla comes to mind, often touted as the ultimate overvalued stock) don’t you think today’s price is a value compared to what it is in 10 years?

My problem with looking at “multiples” and “ratios” is they cannot look at the possibility that a company like Tesla will grow car sales, battery sales, solar sales, satellite launch sales, satellite internet sales, car software subscription sales, boring company sales, electrical grid rebuilding sales and so on. Dividing this number by that number just simply cannot take potential into account. Do your value models take into account WHAT these companies are doing with all of that cash? If so, how does that fit into a mathematical equation. To me, what they’re doing with the money is more important than the money itself. Are they investing in technology? Sales? Advertising? Management bonuses?

The only shot we have is investing in companies poised for significant growth. I’m talking 10x and beyond. Sure, I can invest in a paper company with great cash flows but what returns will that give me?

My personal favorite example and holding is Shopify. For the years I’ve held it since IPO, it’s always been “overvalued”. It’s valuation was “rich”. It’s “multiples” were stratospheric. And yet, it’s returned over 20x (at times) for me. Will I give some of that back if I keep holding? Sure. The last two weeks I’ve most definitely given some back, but is that because it’s a bad company or it’s multiples didn’t fit into some Wall Street or CNBC model? No. Just tech not being in Vogue the last couple of weeks. Consider what Shopify does, the size of the addressable market and the vision that the leader has for the company and I’ll take that any day over PE.

Admittedly, I don’t know your situation or age so perhaps what you’re doing is best for you. But from a simple future potential standpoint, if you’ve got 20-30 years to retirement, this is the only true shot a lowly airline pilot like me has at Ed Bastian type fortunes.

Final note; do be sure to keep track of your performance vs a benchmark like the S&P, ultimately it’s the only thing that matters.

whew.

I get what you’re saying, and I’m kicking myself for selling SHOP a couple months ago, but Trips numbers on those stocks he posted, are pretty phenomenal. He may not get as many 10x and 20x trades, but really, how many are actually out there from year to year? Trips system has uncovered (I didn’t count) 8-10 doubles and triples in a year and a half, and like he said, timing has been on his side, but it obviously works. What’s wrong with using his system? It’s obviously working for him. I actually bought one of the books he mentioned to do MODD. Also, because I just love reading about different ways to approach investing and trading.

I think you’re being a little too critical on his approach to the markets, when there are people who are more risk averse out there than others. And even though companies like SHOP and TSLA have out performed the markets by a factor of 8-10+, there has been more risk in holding those companies.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big E 757 (Post 3205259)

The important point of all of this is that, all it really takes is a few outsized returns to generate the wealth. The only way you can do this is long term, buy, hold and wait. You cannot let a ratio inform the decision.

Trip has done great. There are many ways to skin a cat, but his data cannot be considered statistically significant. If we are playing the short term game, for every double or triple he has produced I can produce a 10x for the same time period. What matters is long periods of time and outperforming a benchmark. A few names have become the bulk of my PF much like a few names dominate the S&P. That’s how it works. That’s my point. Let growers grow and they provide the outsized returns over time. It doesn’t take many. The rest become fodder and, yes, every now and again some go to zero and result in the :::gasp::: permanent loss of capital.

Investing (trading) in and out based on dividing a couple numbers will cost growth and by no means disproves that growth is dead.

What I want to do is provide a counter to Trips incessant posts about “nose bleed valuations” so that, perhaps, others interested in investing for growth aren’t driven by fear and ratios, but by seeing the bigger picture. It’s worked for me, I have the data, it can work for others.

And with that, there isn’t much else I can say without repeating myself. The valuation game is an age old tradition that ultimately leads to price anchoring and missed opportunities.

Look forward to the 5 year checkup when real statistical data can be provided. Until then! 🍻

Food for Thought

There are lots of great ideas on how to invest, what to buy, etc.

Is the end goal a large pile of cash or is there a purpose for the pile?
How do you generate cash flow from the pile, so you can retire?

For me, the goal is to retire early and not end up in an unfortunate position like so many in our industry of empty promises. I see investing as my only chance at that. If I retire at 55 and If on my last day of life there isn’t a penny left in my accounts I did well. If there is some left, good for the kiddo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mispoken (Post 3205257)

No confusion. What you’re saying is true, the common thread (Elon) is the investment. When SpaceX IPOs I’ll be first in line for that stock too, hoping to get a crack at it in MicroVentures before IPO, actually.

Make no mistake, I am not anti growth. I own FB. I own several Biotech and Healthcare companies. I go where ever I can find sheer outrageous value. What I'm warning against is, no offense, statements like you're above where you are ready to jump headfirst into SpaceX's IPO with no idea of the company's financials solely because they are launching rockets. What Space X is doing is pretty cool but so was the dawn of the jet age which caused permanent loss of capital for many airline investors.

With that said if you are trading these story names using Technicals and Momentum that is more reasonable than saying you are buying and holding. At least in most cases the technic signals will save you from horrific losses

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

Sir, I couldn’t disagree more. Do you value “invest” and are a technician as well? We probably won’t ever agree so Let’s just leave it at that. Like I said, I’ve got data to back up my methods. Let’s talk when you do too.

I don't think much about the market. Don't day trade. Have a brokerage account but don't use it. I dollar cost average my money into my 401k, max out the 415c limits / personal limits, have two kids' college half-funded through Post-9/11 GI Bill (plus some 529 money) and have one rental house that generates minimal income (principal still being paid down). I'll also have a little mil retirement at 60 and an even smaller civil service retirement at 62.

Anyone care to quantify what I'm missing by not diving into all this stuff you folks are discussing here? I like to learn new hobbies and new skill sets, but this sounds like a time-suck I'd rather not take on. Am I in for major regrets when I retire in 15 or 20 years, or beyond? The very basic retirement calculators tell me I'm "ahead" when mapping current retirement savings vs age (even without considering any pension funds), and my finance guy says he's happy with my trajectory toward "work optional." What do y'all money home-brewers say?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 3205340)

The things I've said on this thread are nothing more than the result of a couple decades of tinkering with investing. Seeing what sticks and what doesn't. Ultimately, what I've come full circle to realize is that what you're doing is the way to go. That is, keep throwing money onto the pile and max all those tax advantaged accounts out. If you want to index in those accounts, go for it! I choose individual equities to juice my returns, but I essentially do the same thing as you and dollar cost average into my favorite companies. It's worked out excellently.

While the vehicles within our accounts are different, we have the same approach; ignore talking heads and their ratios, average in, rinse and repeat, ignore noise etc. So, no. You're not doing anything wrong!

The time suck can come in when you are researching individual companies to invest in. I can get lost on The Motley Fool for hours (it's great reading material to download for a long flight though). I do lots of reading and research about these companies, I don't crunch many numbers. It's a hobby of mine. So if you want to learn basket weaving and have some skin in the "game", keep doing what you're doing!

And whatever you do, don't watch the clowns on CNBC.