Next AE: March-April 2019
02-01-2019, 06:16 PM
#201
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,410
Originally Posted by TED74
I'm talking about the expansion of the bottom of our seniority list. In the last four years we hired way more than replacement rate and added perhaps 2,500 to our rolls. It seems that expansion is slowing and we're likely to hire essentially for attrition. We're also becoming increasingly efficient, which will further limit any hiring beyond attrition (e.g., fewer vacation days, fewer sick hours, Carmen optimization window expansion, ARCOS implementation, etc.).
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02-01-2019, 06:34 PM
#202
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Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
Originally Posted by Trip7
Top Men has dropped the latest whispers about the next AE and if true there will cause significant movement:
1. 777A's 68 positions
2. 359 Starship 40-45 As
3. 320 LAX 120As and Bs with more to come down the road
4. Potentially 330As 96-105 positions
5. Slightly more As on WB than Bs due to retirements but many B positions also..
6. And 73Ns, other 320 bases positions and A220 positions..
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1. 777A's 68 positions
2. 359 Starship 40-45 As
3. 320 LAX 120As and Bs with more to come down the road
4. Potentially 330As 96-105 positions
5. Slightly more As on WB than Bs due to retirements but many B positions also..
6. And 73Ns, other 320 bases positions and A220 positions..
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Originally Posted by gzsg
200 plus widebody captains.
650 retirements in 2019
An average of 5 waterfall initial training events per retiree equals 3,250 initial training events.
And from here the number just just Year after year after year.
Let the games begin.
650 retirements in 2019
An average of 5 waterfall initial training events per retiree equals 3,250 initial training events.
And from here the number just just Year after year after year.
Let the games begin.
Denny
02-01-2019, 07:03 PM
#203
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Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
[QUOTE=TED74;2754695]How many displacements are we anticipating with 88 reduction and LAX717 closure? 650 sounds high for retirements in 19. I know we have 423 age 65 retirements, so more will leave. But some of those leaving are already on STD and LTD and therefore their departure won't generate any waterfall, right?
650 was a management projection. The large number of retirements and over 200 widebody captain positions will cause a massive waterfall in my opinion. I anticipate the largest number of bypasses ever.
Most of the 650 retirements are captains. And a great number of those are widebody captains.
650 was a management projection. The large number of retirements and over 200 widebody captain positions will cause a massive waterfall in my opinion. I anticipate the largest number of bypasses ever.
Most of the 650 retirements are captains. And a great number of those are widebody captains.
02-01-2019, 11:11 PM
#204
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,262
Originally Posted by Trip7
True the bottom expanded big time with the recapture of regional flying at mainline. This AE looks like the beginning of widebody expansion after years of no growth. 2 A350s and 8 330NEOs coming over this 365 AE.
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02-02-2019, 03:26 AM
#206
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Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 4,908
Originally Posted by gzsg
650 was a management projection. The large number of retirements and over 200 widebody captain positions will cause a massive waterfall in my opinion. I anticipate the largest number of bypasses ever.
Most of the 650 retirements are captains. And a great number of those are widebody captains.
I too won't be surprised to see a large number of bypasses, which may or may not be good for bypassed pilots who want a new category. But those bypasses yield significant waterfall reduction (by design).
I guess I also thought more widebodies meant more jobs. I'm not sure how to square the aforementioned new 330neos and 350s with hiring that could be as low as attrition only.
Increasing simulator throughput (adding a sim period and removing the 15 minute maintenance breaks) was a wise decision on management's part. The only ones who will pay any price for that are those whose training schedules necessitate alteration in the absence of wiggle room to handle simulator hiccups.
I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, I just don't see the magic happening this year. I do think things will really uptick in 2020 and 2021.
02-02-2019, 05:04 AM
#207
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Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 1,126
Originally Posted by Trip7
Top Men has dropped the latest whispers about the next AE and if true there will cause significant movement:
1. 777A's 68 positions
2. 359 Starship 40-45 As
3. 320 LAX 120As and Bs with more to come down the road
4. Potentially 330As 96-105 positions
5. Slightly more As on WB than Bs due to retirements but many B positions also..
6. And 73Ns, other 320 bases positions and A220 positions..
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
1. 777A's 68 positions
2. 359 Starship 40-45 As
3. 320 LAX 120As and Bs with more to come down the road
4. Potentially 330As 96-105 positions
5. Slightly more As on WB than Bs due to retirements but many B positions also..
6. And 73Ns, other 320 bases positions and A220 positions..
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
ATL88 displacements?
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