Boston strong
#21
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Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,918
Yep. We've been waiting on them to expose themselves across the pond and are ready to pounce after they get just enough inertia and sunken costs going to make it worth our while to strike back. The TA market is incredibly competitive yet the hubris of infinite growth mode "new entrants" thinking it will be self printing money is almost as bad as Hawaii.
This ain't 2002 anymore.
This ain't 2002 anymore.
You know we are talking 321lrs right? The same was said when mint was introduced to the transcon market. This isn’t jetblue buying 330s and saying we are going to take over the market. But between this attack plan and the seige, I guess you really got us .
If you want to talk hubris look at your own post.
#22
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
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You know we are talking 321lrs right? The same was said when mint was introduced to the transcon market. This isn’t jetblue buying 330s and saying we are going to take over the market. But between this attack plan and the seige, I guess you really got us .
If you want to talk hubris look at your own post.
If you want to talk hubris look at your own post.
Infinite growth is an irrestibile temptation for any airline, especially smaller so called "LCC" ones. Looking at the route maps of larger competitors as an all you can eat buffet is just going to happen. Managers simply can't not do it.
The goal for the legacies isn't to crush the LCC's into oblivion. Far from it. They acually want (and to some extent need) them to exist to an extent enough to satisfy the regulators/politicians. SWA in ATL has been one of the best things to happen to DL in a long time for example. But spamming hundreds of thousands (to millions) of seats a year into already saturated TA markets means something will have to give once it gets to beyond a token amount.
MaxJet and Eos went after the legacies when they were at their most vulnerable and bleeding billions and shedding markets as fast as they could find parking spots in the desert and sim time for the displacements, all the while they were desperatly trying to stave off a massive assault from the LCC's domesically. Battles had to be picked and clearly the closest aligator to the boat was the threat of the loss of prime international flying vs the $59 fare to Florida. Times have changed and legacy CEO's and BoD's have a much higher incentive to vigorously compete in all markets, not to mention the LCC cost differential has narrowed substantially anyway.
A small amount will be yielded to the LCC's for political reasons, but beyond that the fangs will come out and any that try infinite growth mode with TA flying (especially premium products) will force a opposite and disproportionate reaction from established and highly invested legacies because they will have no other choice. This isn't 2002 anymore. The days of surrendering marketshare to LCC's out of fear and desperation to survive are long over.
#23
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Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,918
Absolutely its 321LR's, which is not going to be a game changing plane by any means; simply a semi-viable, medium CASM option. I only mentioned the C Series because some (from the perspective of all airlines) seem to think its going to be some game changing "long and thin" transformative paradigm shifter and its simply not going to be to any significant extent and even if it was, NE to EU isn't long and thin anyway. Regarding the 321LR, the hope is to capitalze on the higher RASM from FC/Mint, however to any extent that's successful it will only further drive up the costs for the rest, which are already highly competitive and extremely fare sensitive as it is, especially when attatched to a much smaller network for mileage rewards etc.
Infinite growth is an irrestibile temptation for any airline, especially smaller so called "LCC" ones. Looking at the route maps of larger competitors as an all you can eat buffet is just going to happen. Managers simply can't not do it.
The goal for the legacies isn't to crush the LCC's into oblivion. Far from it. They acually want (and to some extent need) them to exist to an extent enough to satisfy the regulators/politicians. SWA in ATL has been one of the best things to happen to DL in a long time for example. But spamming hundreds of thousands (to millions) of seats a year into already saturated TA markets means something will have to give once it gets to beyond a token amount.
MaxJet and Eos went after the legacies when they were at their most vulnerable and bleeding billions and shedding markets as fast as they could find parking spots in the desert and sim time for the displacements, all the while they were desperatly trying to stave off a massive assault from the LCC's domesically. Battles had to be picked and clearly the closest aligator to the boat was the threat of the loss of prime international flying vs the $59 fare to Florida. Times have changed and legacy CEO's and BoD's have a much higher incentive to vigorously compete in all markets, not to mention the LCC cost differential has narrowed substantially anyway.
A small amount will be yielded to the LCC's for political reasons, but beyond that the fangs will come out and any that try infinite growth mode with TA flying (especially premium products) will force a opposite and disproportionate reaction from established and highly invested legacies because they will have no other choice. This isn't 2002 anymore. The days of surrendering marketshare to LCC's out of fear and desperation to survive are long over.
Infinite growth is an irrestibile temptation for any airline, especially smaller so called "LCC" ones. Looking at the route maps of larger competitors as an all you can eat buffet is just going to happen. Managers simply can't not do it.
The goal for the legacies isn't to crush the LCC's into oblivion. Far from it. They acually want (and to some extent need) them to exist to an extent enough to satisfy the regulators/politicians. SWA in ATL has been one of the best things to happen to DL in a long time for example. But spamming hundreds of thousands (to millions) of seats a year into already saturated TA markets means something will have to give once it gets to beyond a token amount.
MaxJet and Eos went after the legacies when they were at their most vulnerable and bleeding billions and shedding markets as fast as they could find parking spots in the desert and sim time for the displacements, all the while they were desperatly trying to stave off a massive assault from the LCC's domesically. Battles had to be picked and clearly the closest aligator to the boat was the threat of the loss of prime international flying vs the $59 fare to Florida. Times have changed and legacy CEO's and BoD's have a much higher incentive to vigorously compete in all markets, not to mention the LCC cost differential has narrowed substantially anyway.
A small amount will be yielded to the LCC's for political reasons, but beyond that the fangs will come out and any that try infinite growth mode with TA flying (especially premium products) will force a opposite and disproportionate reaction from established and highly invested legacies because they will have no other choice. This isn't 2002 anymore. The days of surrendering marketshare to LCC's out of fear and desperation to survive are long over.
The only issue I have is why is it acceptable for Delta to grow but not the LCCs?
It will be interesting I guess we will see the plans on Wednesday.
#24
#25
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Its not just because of JB's ambitions either. Imagine if they are successful in decimating the legacies from the all you can eat buffet route map. Wouldn't all the other LCC's, including some that aren't even around yet, do the same?
In any case from what I can tell, they have been anticipating this for a while and seem to be very well prepared for the long term battle of what will become a two front war and its one they intend to win because the alternative cost will be far greater than the high cost of this battle. WOW was supposed to be able to poach at will with rock bottom fares and super low costs, yet they found it impossible to compete long term. The TA pattern is pretty much full. JB wouldn't have any intention to do TA flying for 1 or 2 token flights a day and that's it; if they go, they will go with the assumption that they can grow there forever. I predict that will not be the case at all.
#26
As Speedbird was saying earlier, I think jetBlue is trying to establish a lower cost alternate to the likes of Delta One etc across the Atlantic. With the A321LR, jetBlue must believe the economics of that Jet plus having both economy and premium reduces risk significantly. Maxjet and EOS tried all business in high operating cost widebodies and failed quickly. Even the low operating cost of the 787(for a widebody) isn't helping Norwegian. If they are struggling now a recession will put them under for sure
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#28
As Speedbird was saying earlier, I think jetBlue is trying to establish a lower cost alternate to the likes of Delta One etc across the Atlantic. With the A321LR, jetBlue must believe the economics of that Jet plus having both economy and premium reduces risk significantly. Maxjet and EOS tried all business in high operating cost widebodies and failed quickly. Even the low operating cost of the 787(for a widebody) isn't helping Norwegian. If they are struggling now a recession will put them under for sure
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#29
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,116
swa had no etops program at the airliune. etops is an airframe and organizational overlay.
delta has a long standing etops program. arrival of etops compliant airframes will not require long delay in their operational use. the 739 etops birds were in etops service relatively quickly after arriving on property.
More likely will be the theater quals for crews that will take more time. from the fleet managers, the first 20 321NEO airframes will be etops compliant.
delta has a long standing etops program. arrival of etops compliant airframes will not require long delay in their operational use. the 739 etops birds were in etops service relatively quickly after arriving on property.
More likely will be the theater quals for crews that will take more time. from the fleet managers, the first 20 321NEO airframes will be etops compliant.
#30
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 588
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