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Old 03-27-2020, 10:35 AM
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Default How Soon Will COVID-19 Peak? (How To Tell)

Please watch the whole thing before drawing conclusions. Link to the graph and sources are in the video description.

https://youtu.be/bE68xVXf8Kw
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Old 03-27-2020, 11:36 AM
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As a layperson, I truly dont know what to think. I posted an article that seems reasonable too.

I do know this to be true(from my perspective)

1. Poor people never have enough, no matter how much you give them it's not enough.
2. Rich people still want more, no matter how much they have they still want more.
3. Never met a general who had enough, enough men, weapons , POL, lift, intel, support. They always needed more.
4. Politicians always seem to want more. More power, more pork, more votes.
5 Doctors never have enough. No matter how much they have, they could always use more.

6. I know I am a cynic, sometimes I need more compassion, sometimes I need more skepticism.

Hopefully, in a coupla months there is more clarity. I truly hope the numbers are much better than the doomsayers and click bait media portend.
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Old 03-27-2020, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers View Post
As a layperson, I truly dont know what to think. I posted an article that seems reasonable too.

I do know this to be true(from my perspective)

1. Poor people never have enough, no matter how much you give them it's not enough.
2. Rich people still want more, no matter how much they have they still want more.
3. Never met a general who had enough, enough men, weapons , POL, lift, intel, support. They always needed more.
4. Politicians always seem to want more. More power, more pork, more votes.
5 Doctors never have enough. No matter how much they have, they could always use more.

6. I know I am a cynic, sometimes I need more compassion, sometimes I need more skepticism.

Hopefully, in a coupla months there is more clarity. I truly hope the numbers are much better than the doomsayers and click bait media portend.
I mostly agree with you, just like pilots always want more gas, and bean counters always want less gas. The compromise is what counts. To say that this video is just another doctor asking for more, is not the reality in this case.
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Old 03-27-2020, 11:46 AM
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The video above was supposed to be this one:

How Soon Will COVID-19 Peak? (And How To Tell)

Please watch the whole thing before drawing conclusions. Link to the graph and sources are in the video description.
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Old 03-27-2020, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers View Post
As a layperson, I truly dont know what to think. I posted an article that seems reasonable too.

I do know this to be true(from my perspective)

1. Poor people never have enough, no matter how much you give them it's not enough.
2. Rich people still want more, no matter how much they have they still want more.
3. Never met a general who had enough, enough men, weapons , POL, lift, intel, support. They always needed more.
4. Politicians always seem to want more. More power, more pork, more votes.
5 Doctors never have enough. No matter how much they have, they could always use more.

6. I know I am a cynic, sometimes I need more compassion, sometimes I need more skepticism.

Hopefully, in a coupla months there is more clarity. I truly hope the numbers are much better than the doomsayers and click bait media portend.
I would that the Generals always want to fight a war somewhere to give them more of the other things you list...
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Old 03-27-2020, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by LumberJack View Post
I mostly agree with you, just like pilots always want more gas, and bean counters always want less gas. The compromise is what counts. To say that this video is just another doctor asking for more, is not the reality in this case.
Well, now I'm a little confused, cause the link I watched was one doctor who wanted more. Staying on the original clip that was linked I'll say, "many times, generally things are good but locally they aren't". Jobs is a perfect example. Nationally the jobs numbers and unemployment were historically low but that doesn't help if in your community they are well above average. The doctor in the clip you posted(and I responded to) had a caption (from her superiors?) that disputed her thesis. So what's the true answer?.....well it depends on your perspective. Like I said time will tell......until politicians can play the game of you should have done this or, or, or.......do hospitals go to just in time supply chains or do we equip every hospital in America with ALL the required medical equipment needed in a crisis?

Generals want a standing army to fight two major wars on two fronts.....economically and politically not feasible.....until you need them, then people say "why were you ill prepared?"
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Old 03-27-2020, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Viking busdvr View Post
I would that the Generals always want to fight a war somewhere to give them more of the other things you list...

And I thought I was cynical!!!!!!
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Old 03-27-2020, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Buck Rogers View Post
And I thought I was cynical!!!!!!
I should specify that I mean the non-battlefield Generals that roam the Pentagon and Washington for the most part
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Old 03-27-2020, 01:46 PM
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Something has to give.

I could see, in the near future, relaxing the quarantine and letting businesses reopen with restrictions.

Restaurants with capacity of 30+, no more than 10 dine-in patrons, or some other ratio to be agreed on, airlines have to keep the center seat blocked etc etc

the economy has to get back to business.
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:42 PM
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The more we do now to stop the spread of the CVirus, the sooner it will be over. In the US, we do not have enough test kits, and will not for a while. Because of that, the best option is Social Distancing, which requires closing of many types of businesses. As we get more test kits, it will be easier to see who has had the virus and survived...those people can be unrestricted in their daily activities as they won't spread the disease. And, for those who aren't sick, but are quarantined, they can get out of quarantine if they test negative (or they won't need to be quarantined in the first place-Wuhan had test kits with results in 4 hours). My wife, and a fractional pilot we knew, got sick. They were able to get the CVirus test. It is taking a minimum of seven days for their tests results to come back.

One of the biggest problems now, is overwhelming the medical facilities we have. We will have people dying of non-CVirus problems, if they can't see a doctor, get a hospital bed, get into ICU, etc. And if you need a ventilator, for any reason, you will probably die if we don't have a ventilator for you. If we can spread the CVirus cases out over time, then we won't have such high demands placed on our medical staff and facilities.

Additionally, protective equipment, and testing is VERY important for our medical personnel. If a medical person dies, or is quarantined, then the death rate will go up, as they won't be available to treat patients. Protective equipment will reduce their chances of getting sick, and testing would allow medical personnel to get out of quarantine, if they are not sick, so they can go back to work and treat us...
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