April Adjustment Entitlement (AE)
 

So what are the WAGs (wild donkey guesses) on how the next AE will look. Obviously there are going to be surpluses and there will be vacancies throughout the system.

Not having been here when we are “over staffed” by this amount how will they likely adjust the positions? Will NYC finally be fully staffed?

Some musings I have are that if people are forced through surpluses we will have most of the pilot group without a seat lock when this situation turns around.

WAG
88s gone (800 displaced)
some 7ER displacements
A220, A320 vacancys for whenever we start taking deliveries again (if they think we will before summer 2021)
737s will stay about the same size
no/minimal wide body A displacements as retirements will help right size this group going forward.
some widebody B displacements (probably a lot of 765)
im guessing 330 and 350 are relatively safe be cause they are the most efficient WBs if things come back in the next 18 months. also this is where DLs fleet is headed long term.
if we do domestic bounces back before intl (i think it will) we may see 765s and 330s deployed domestically to help haul cargo around the country as well as people. (more As, fewer Bs)
777s will be safe if we can make any money hauling cargo in the belly during all of this.

unknown is the 717 during all of this

100% speculation from an FNG on the short list to get canned if things go south.

to compare to AA they will be retiring immediately
all 9 of their A330-300s (keeping the -200s)
their original 76 737-800s from pre 9/11
all 20 of their E190s
all of their 757/767s

this takes them from 7 pilot groups to 5 (777,787,330,320,737) and 4 pay groups to 2. 1 of those groups will have a whopping 15 airplanes

I wonder if DL will use this time to streamline the fleet like AA did

Probably.........

Seems like I saw something like that in the past.

The next bid likely will highlight fleet streamlining direction.

We have to have 11 different categories. It's in our DNA.

25% of instructors back to the line.

Training center shut down.

How will the accomplish well over 1200 initial training events?

Meanwhile, well over 1,000 pilots retiring in short order. At least 1200 initials to put butts in those seats.

So, the next 12 months need over 2,400 initials in a shut down training center.

Hmmm

still predicting that training department “collapse” all these years later?

This will all come down to one question: what is the new target seniority list size?

It was a 15,000 pilot airline a few months ago.

It isn't now and won't be in the next two years. The virus could end today, the damage is already done.

I wouldn't be surprised if the new goal is to have 10,000 pilots. Maybe 12,000. Who knows, maybe 9,000.

Whatever the new projected categories for next spring add up to, plus a percentage for non-active status, is what will drive this AE and determine how badly the overstaffing situation is.

If the new goal was 10,000 pilots for instance, they'd be stupid to furlough below around 11,500 because of the upcoming attrition off the top.