GucciBoy

My van driver told me three.

Mesabah

There are many stories like this on flyertalk, I posted about it a month back. This was a big reason we lost a lot of business, not just the virus, but the uncertainty of actual service.

gloopy

Our marketing got pretty good at sharp shooting every dollar in fares. Now I'm concerned the drinking straw they're looking through has been pointed to "spend less by any means" and we will miss mass opportunities for market recapture.

Funk

The 5/21 TSA numbers were up 35% from the previous week (12% of 2019 numbers). We’d normally expect more travelers during Memorial Day weekend, so it’s good to see numbers still go up. Also, it has now been about one month of improving numbers. 4/23 was the first Thursday of improving TSA screenings, and yesterday had 285% of the 4/23 number, a 185% increase over 4 weeks. 4/16 was the bottom for pax numbers, and yesterday was 335% of the low point, or a 235% increase.

Hopefully these green shoots will continue.

tallpilot

Can we please stop using percentage increases? When a penny stock you put $1,000 in goes up 256% that’s a decent payday. When we’re barely over 10% of where we were last year nothing material has changed. Wake me up when we get to 50%. Then at least half the seniority list can be a little less worried.

I’m not picking on you personally, lots of these threads are doing it. Of course an uptrend is better than the alternative but at these low numbers it’s nearly meaningless noise.

Hank Kingsley

My home town airport is expected to be down 85% from last year. So, we several hundred percent increase in performance. We need a vaccine pronto or the level may stagnate.

Funk

Consider the thread title for a moment. It isn’t “Doom and Gloom newsroom,” nor is it “Curmudgeons Orgy.” Consider that I included where we are relatively speaking to 2019. It’s all in perspective.

Nothing wrong with percentages because they relate some level of rate of growth off the bottom. Plus, easy application of the rule of 72 helps when they might double if they continue at a current pace. (Past performance does not necessarily indicate future returns)

You can go hibernate and wait for crew resources to call with a reserve assignment (whenever that may be).

Funk

Im not really much for prognosticating what is or isn’t necessary for things to improve, nor what will or won’t happen, but I do take an interest in observing what is going on. Based on the limited reopening by various states, it is interesting to see how much the numbers have improved from the bottom.

I wonder if/when New York starts reopening if it will drive a disproportionate increase in TSA numbers. Some because of increased New York travelers, some because the broadcast media is so NYC focused that they’ll broadcast from their own center of the universe that it’s OK to be out and about, and that will influence the country as a whole.

I also wonder about the relationship between total travelers and revenue. Will people pay more to have tickets on airplanes that are capped at 60%, or will they care less about a more full airplane as long as the prices don’t rise? At current pricing, can we get to break even on flights we are operating while holding at 60% load factor?

Your reference to the local airport down by 85% also begs the question of what level we need to hit (relative to 2019) in order to stave off the F word?

I don’t know the answer to any of these, but I am hopeful that we have time to let the numbers improve before the fall, and that there is enough time for improvements to drive the company to re-evaluate staffing before the axe really falls.

Breadcream

I like the way you think. Great point about the narrative shifting...let’s hope it pans out that way. We live on the coast and we’re seeing an accelerating increase in activity everywhere. I’m sure it feels completely different up north but down here this thing is starting to take a backseat.

Hank Kingsley

IF you can believe the polling data regarding opening up the country. The majority appear to want to go slow, which means flying is not on the agenda. With a vaccine, different story.