Fredturbo

Per Barrons analyst, Delta looks to be the best of breed with price target of $39. AAL a hurting unit.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/maj...ry-51589211954

As for the stocks, he sees the biggest gains for Delta. The airline has stockpiled enough cash and liquidity to avoid another round of loan financing from the government (which would further dilute its equity). He sees Delta maintaining some of the highest industry margins, “given its execution ability and brand value,” though Delta also has some of the highest capital-spending requirements, given its relatively old fleet, he wrote. He has a price target of $39 on the stock, up from recent prices around $22, implying a 77% return.

Vernon sees scant upside in American, giving it a price target of $10, up from recent prices around $9.60. The airline will likely receive more than $4 billion in loans from the government (on top of the grants and loans it has already taken) that will further dilute its equity. But American has the newest fleet of the major carriers, limiting its capital requirements, and it will be borrowing from the government at below-market rates (because private financing probably isn’t available).

jules11

Just to be devil's advocate, this article also came out yesterday

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/b...ak-future.html

Excargodog

I think the author is severely underestimating the costs of furlough given all the fleet types, especially if international flying does not rebound promptly. The ‘domino effect‘ of displacements and training costs October 1st may be extremely ugly for mixed type fleets.

WickedSmaht

With regard to the NYT piece...thanks,. we know. We're all aware of the state of the industry and what the recovery will look like .To cast this as a permanent demise of the industry is simply inaccurate. If the rebuild is only 2-3 years after what will be ostensibly a six month (or greater) operational pause? Win. It's getting increasing nauseating to read this stuff from the position of "It's bad...reaaaaallll bad and it's never going to get better". Yes, this sucks, will suck a bit more and we'll all have to take a bit but can we focus on how to recover and return to some stability and normalcy instead of pumping out boilerplate articles about how we're all perma-screwed??

Rant over...

Bucking Bar

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shares-...igh-1386117530

Berkshire Hathaway has seen this before. We have seen this before.

mikea72580

TSA loads bottomed at 4%. Now consistently up to 8.5%. Hoping for a doubling every 2 weeks. I know very few family/friends who don’t have trips booked later this year. Most of them with a “to hell with it” attitude about going.

Funk

The week on week growth has been at about 3 weeks. Now, whether that pace quickens or slows is anybody’s guess.

forgot to bid

ive got friends who have normal jobs who have been told their traveling in June. One in particular will have 3 trips.

i also am looking at a shopping center outside my neighborhood who’ve lost 2 businesses, a pizza place and another bakery. Looked in their windows and they’re taking their kitchens apart.

so who knows. I see a lot of Karen’s at the grocery store but also a growing number of IDGAF.

but I got a haircut today and the place was busy, at 830am. Social distancing was tossed and no masks anywhere... especially on me. 😎

Speed Select

I ate in a restaurant today (first day they are allowed dining room seating in our state). Tables were 6 feet apart, staff were wearing masks, place was packed, and none of the patrons were wearing masks.

People in my 50/50 blue/white collar town are ignoring the Karens.

Drum

Same. Two are execs. One with Parker-Hannafin the other with Nabisco. They have trips mid June - July - August.
Today at the grocery store I didn't get yelled at for going the wrong way against the arrow No one gave me a dirty look for not wearing a mask either. Mask wear was moving from 90/10 (don't wear/wear), to 60/40, we bottomed out at 50/50, now back to about 70/30. Karens are ignored by most.

Hit the barber as well today. 2 Portuguese guys run the place. No appointment, no 15 minutes between gusts, no social D, no masks. It was packed. They said they had about 2 weeks left before they would have to walk away from the biz. Glad they made it thru. Many small businesses here were not as fortunate