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Old 07-22-2020, 07:49 AM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by biigD View Post
I see what you're saying now. I'm not too optimistic about tomorrow's call - we had a month of increased flying, but who the heck knows what the yields were? I personally liked the decision - without being able to cut the payroll and with fuel being dirt cheap, why not roll the dice? But with the ability to shed payroll in October, I think you'll see AA take a defensive stance now that it's clear there won't be any meaningful recovery this year. It's already happening with the cuts to our flying next month.
Yeah I expect of you were really hoping for no furloughs at the big 3 those hopes are gone. Barring a highly effective treatment (cure) with the ability to spin up fast.
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Old 07-22-2020, 07:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Downtime View Post
Yeah I expect of you were really hoping for no furloughs at the big 3 those hopes are gone. Barring a highly effective treatment (cure) with the ability to spin up fast.
I wouldn't say all hope is gone at DL just yet. There is still a path to no furloughs/layoffs for nonunion and union employees.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by AUP09 View Post
There is still a path to no furloughs/layoffs for nonunion and union employees.
What path is that? Dispatchers voted down the company's offer, and this pilot group is unlikely to jump on anything similar to their proposal.

Do you think management will actually follow through on the verbal commitment to exercise all voluntary options.... that they've been reticent to even discuss at the table?
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by TED74 View Post
What path is that? Dispatchers voted down the company's offer, and this pilot group is unlikely to jump on anything similar to their proposal.



Do you think management will actually follow through on the verbal commitment to exercise all voluntary options.... that they've been reticent to even discuss at the table?
I believe they will utilize voluntary options as long as they are able to meet the desired savings goals for each work group.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by AUP09 View Post
I believe they will utilize voluntary options as long as they are able to meet the desired savings goals for each work group.
Desired savings goals will likely have to be adjusted to align with industry standard voluntary paid leave options.
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:39 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by AUP09 View Post
Why wait? Because UA took a similar approach as us (albeit for seat caps) and ended up with similar cash burn..
How are these numbers “similar”?

United net loss: 1.6B

Delta net loss: 2.8B

United pretax loss: 2.6B

Delta pretax loss: 3.9B
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:53 AM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by AUP09 View Post
Why wait? Because UA took a similar approach as us (albeit for seat caps) and ended up with similar cash burn. AA took a vastly different approach so we need to seed the results first.

If AA carried more pax, and had more revenue, but burned $50+ million a day we don't want to copy them.

If AA did those same things and ended up with $40 million in cash burn we don't necessarily want to copy them but may want to adapt pieces of their strategy.

If AA did those same things and ended up with $30 or less in cash burn per day we may want to ch
ange a lot of things about our strategy.
I think there may be a problem with your logic regarding following AA's lead. If we and possibly UA dump a shiit ton of capacity on the market without the requisite demand, .what do you think will happen to ticket prices and yields?
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Old 07-22-2020, 10:08 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Lifeisgood View Post
How are these numbers “similar”?

United net loss: 1.6B

Delta net loss: 2.8B

United pretax loss: 2.6B

Delta pretax loss: 3.9B
Wasn't 2B of the 3.9 one time write-offs due to LATAM and Virgin? What were United's 1 time write-offs? What were both of our operating losses?
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:11 AM
  #29  
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Delta's revenue was 1,468 on 10,596 ASM's
UAL revenue was 1,475 on 8963 ASM's

Bottom line is UAL did more revenue on less capacity.

Delta's operating costs were 6,283
UAL's operating costs were 3,112

Operating costs are a pure number. What it costs to move a passenger from point A to B. Delta added a restructuring charge under operating costs. Which is weird. Usually thats something added later after operating costs on an income statement.

Restructuring charges.We recognized $2.5 billion of restructuring charges following strategic business decisions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These charges are primarily related to impairments from the decisions to retire the 777, MD-90 and 737-700 fleets and certain of our 767-300ER and A320 aircraft.

If you take out that restructuring charge they lost about the same. Bottom line is it's more important to look at cash burn and cash on hand more than anything else. Some airlines may have some encumbered assets still to tap if necessary. AAL,LUV, ALK and SAVE all report tomorrow. Should have a good idea where everybody stands by the end of the week. Either way these are horrible numbers.
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:05 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by REF 5 View Post
Delta's revenue was 1,468 on 10,596 ASM's

UAL revenue was 1,475 on 8963 ASM's



Bottom line is UAL did more revenue on less capacity.



Delta's operating costs were 6,283

UAL's operating costs were 3,112



Operating costs are a pure number. What it costs to move a passenger from point A to B. Delta added a restructuring charge under operating costs. Which is weird. Usually thats something added later after operating costs on an income statement.



Restructuring charges.We recognized $2.5 billion of restructuring charges following strategic business decisions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These charges are primarily related to impairments from the decisions to retire the 777, MD-90 and 737-700 fleets and certain of our 767-300ER and A320 aircraft.



If you take out that restructuring charge they lost about the same. Bottom line is it's more important to look at cash burn and cash on hand more than anything else. Some airlines may have some encumbered assets still to tap if necessary. AAL,LUV, ALK and SAVE all report tomorrow. Should have a good idea where everybody stands by the end of the week. Either way these are horrible numbers.
Important to note...

10,596 x 60% = 6,358 Effective ASMs.

Essentially same revenue on 30% fewer effective ASMs.
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