6 million was never likely for the same reason Sweden doesn’t have hundreds of thousands of deaths. The models were and are still complete garbage. It isn’t science at all. Just opinionated BS masquerading as something legitimate. A monkey would have better prognostication. Looking at the graphs from different areas of levels of lockdowns/mask mandates it’s quite obvious had we done nothing our numbers would still be around the same they are today. Had we not changed how we code these deaths, and did the same we have always done, and not used PCR as a diagnostic tool to determine covid death the numbers would be dramatically smaller.

What did Biden run on? A real question. I follow politics fairly close and I'm not sure what he ran on. The only position I know for sure he took was he isn't Trump. I guess that is all some people needed. I'm not saying Trump is any better (does he have any positions at all?) but "come on man," don't say your guy is better than the last guy when he clearly isn't. One thing is for sure, if there is one government in the world that can mess up the rollout of this vaccine it is ours. It doesn't matter who is in charge there won't be 40 million (or 20 million) vaccinated by January. Let's just hope by summer they have this semi-figured out.

Income tax rates are just the tip of the tax iceberg. What gets subjected to those rates is equally important. Many like to tout the substantially higher tax rates from the past, but conveniently forget the deductions that were available when those rates were in effect. Tax sheltered real estate comes to mind here. I'd gladly sign up for a 70% income tax with a 100% tax shelter option. Income tax policy is just a tool for politicians to get paid off by lobbyists. Right and left are in cohouts with respect to income tax, they just want a fight, so they can get lobbied to fix a problem.

The estate tax is where rich get eliminated, not income tax. There isn't a far left boogeyman made up by the ultra right wing influencing my opinion here. Biden is on record as wanting elimination of stepped up basis, lower estate tax exemptions and a higher rate on top of it all. That combination is how the government steps in and determines how to redistribute wealth, not income tax.

All I'm saying is the Party of Science (POS) President-elect has told us 4 days ago that 250,000 Americans are going to die in a month because we "don't listen."

Neither agree nor disagree...I'm not a scientist; POS Prez gets briefed by experts, so I'm sure he's right about the facts. The cure is "listening", I guess. I'm a little fuzzy on that. Mask mandates are pretty much everywhere.

In 2018 2.8 million people took a dirt nap; I have to assume that the 250,000 now expected to die of Covid in 4 weeks is over and above that number. That's a staggering 11% increase in total deaths for the year; probably much more because I don't hear anyone saying sufficient "listening" will reduce that number in February. That kind of spike in annual death rates is going to mean mass graves and freezer trucks at the morgues.

Half a million people die of Covid in the next two months, and the airlines are going to be in a world of hurt, vaccine or not, listening or not, POS President or not. Honestly, the only thing I care about in this whole forum is airline viability.

https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/

Here's the platform, broken down into 13 sections. In full disclosure, I would have voted for any mammal that wasn't Trump. I'll indeed say "my guy" is better than him, as is every nominee he'll bring into his staff and cabinet. I can think of a few convicted felons I would personally prefer to have in office over another Trump dumpster fire of a term. Of course I'm biased because I've listened to Trump's words (before and after his election), read some excerpts of his book, and read enough of his tweets to appreciate his numerous shortcomings. I also value allies, intellect and honesty.

I'm not optimistic about the rollout of the vaccine, but at least Trump is at least staying mostly silent on it [what an odd state amidst a global pandemic?!]. It sure would be nice to have someone who could at least pretend to care about something other than himself leading the executive branch, but alas this is who America chose last time around. Trump is an a$$hat, but I concede he isn't the problem and merely the symptom of larger problems put into motion by both parties. My hunch is Joe will do less harm than an emboldened Trump family in charge for 4 more years.

My hunch is he resigns six months into his presidency.

My hunch is the ‘people in power’ keep him there for 2 years and 1 day, hoping to then get 10 years of Harris.

my hunch is that this is the same sort of paranoid BS people shouted about Obama declaring himself king, trump running for 3 terms, etc.

Time will tell. No matter what you feel about him politically, there’s no denying his age. I just don’t think he can make it for 4 years. We’ll see

there’s no denying his age, but there is denying a paranoid conspiracy theory about the “powers that be” running some sort of shadow government 2 years ahead with a placeholder candidate.

Hey man, take it easy on waldo. I was talking with the chemtrail refill guy during my walk around and he heard the same thing waldo was saying. Apparently, they are trying to adjust the chemtrail mix to stop us from thinking about Biden's age.

not saying this is the case today, but there is some historical precedent for pushing an otherwise compromised presidency

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/...-wilson-stroke

there’s a bit of difference between covering for limited functioning of an already elected President (Reagan, Wilson, Cleveland, etc) and having a plan to install a president for a predetermined amount of time and have a planned abdication two or more years in advance.

i don’t disagree, but we have a historical precedent of “powers that be” acting as a president (in your words running a shadow government) once the elected president is no longer able to function as a president. TBH it would not surprise me if this happened again (not necessarily with Biden, but just at some point)

that’s a pretty far cry from having that planned several years in advance in a conspiratorial plot, which is what the other two we’re talking about. I’m not even sure why you’re bringing an apple to the orange conversation

I am more concerned about his actual medical issues than any "conspiracies". He has nearly every single symptom of Parkinson's disease. A lot of people say he has dimentia but the slurred speech isn't a sign of that but it is a symptom of Parkinson's as is his hand tremors, stilted walk, empty facial expressions at times, and somewhat poor balance.

You think that's bad, wait till trumpy's campaign in 2024 :D

It is a two way street. Trump being called a KGB implant is no different. Do you really think your side is that much better than the side you are fighting against?

I mentioned the paranoid and stupid response to both democratic and republican presidents in the comment you quoted. Maybe read my comment before a knee-jerk reaction at the “side” you think I’m on.

I've read enough of your posts to know you are deeply entrenched on one side.

So, you won’t even read the comments you respond to. Good to know.

Yes. No need to get conspiratorial about it though. (You didn’t)

It’s a rational national party move. President is largely a figurehead, but an important symbolic one. Better to have it than not have it.

Understanding the rules as we all do, it makes sense for POS (Party of Science) President Biden to hold out for 2 years. Indian-African American Special K would have tremendous advantages for election.

Huh. This Rolling Stones article says less than half the wymons are interested in the vaccine.

Not sure of the gender/chosen gender/gender assigned at birth makeup of the back of the aircraft, but it seems to skew mainly female/she/her.

Might be an issue if she/her won’t get vaccinated. Interweb assertions of vaccine = sterility probably don’t help. Declarations from the newly installed POS (Party of Science) insisting otherwise should help.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture...ccine-1099020/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/h...s-testing.html

Since we are talking about numbers, here is an excellent article about the worthlessness of these tests as they are currently conducted. 90% of those testing positive should not be positives and are of near zero threat to anybody.

It was a good article when it was published half an epidemic ago back in August. Luckily we've made some progress, as evidenced by the three rapid tests I've already taken on behalf of Delta in the last month before signing in. That wasn't possible this summer. From the article: "But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without symptoms, as recently suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive.

“The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation."

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Not sure where to start with your insistence that COVID is only .02% lethal. Math is clearly not your strong suit.

As of this morning, (07 DEC) 14,800,000 people in USA have tested positive for COVID

As of this morning, (07DEC) 282,000 deaths in USA have been attributed to COVID


282,000 divided by 14,800,000 equals 0.019. Which is TWO PERCENT, NOT .02%

Even correcting for the half of the population who have no symptoms, that still leaves a ONE PERCENT mortality rate

Further, if 14 million have already tested positive and half of COVID infectees show no symptoms, assume 28 million have actually had it. That is still less than 10 percent of the USA population. Extrapolating the 1% mortality to 10X more potential cases give a potential 2.8 Million additional deaths.

Oh, and my brother is also an M.D. He is insistent that everybody should get it. Not sure where your wife practices. Does she practice? Or is she a researcher? Just wondering why she would be against the vaccine if she was near potentially infected patients on a daily basis.

Also, if HCQ is a cure, don’t you think that there would be at least ONE hospital with a full ICU that would have tried it and “cured” everybody? And then talked about it? Or is EVERY HOSPITAL in the USA “in” on this conspiracy and ignoring HCQ while letting their patients needlessly die to further the conspiracy.

Oh, and as far as your cited source URL ? I am not impressed. There are many other websites that seem to think poorly of it.

The Free Thought Project fact check

More opinion on veracity of Free Thought Project

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Your math works out for case fatality on confirmed positives but you are ignoring your later statement that twice as many people actually have had the virus so now we are down to one percent. Then we have to look at the total population of the US which is 331 million and that number works out to .85%. Not worth being a guinea pig for the first vaccine in my opinion. You may feel free to disagree.

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.85% ??? I am pretty good at math, but your answer eludes me. Please show your work.

Further, you can NOT count the entire population, 90% of whom have NOT YET BEEN INFECTED in your math. That makes no sense.

1% mortality rate among infected people. That is a small number, but “I” don’t want to roll the dice.

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The entire population is the pool of potential infected people and that is what you would have to base the total deaths on for overall fatality. You are computing case fatality but that number will be fluid with total case count. The population as a whole is fairly constant. Worldwide deaths vs. population the number is .02% but I don't think deaths are reported correctly everywhere. I would guess the actual total fatality rate is probably somewhere around half a percent but I don't think we will ever have a reliable number.

If you are fat, have heart disease, COPD, diabetes, or older than 75 you shouldn't roll the dice.


280,000 divided by 331,000,000 = 0.000845 0.085%

The latest estimate from the CDC as to how many cases there are in comparison to every positive test is a factor of 8.

That’s right, eight.

Previous estimates were ten times over and now it’s eight but still, change your multiplication from 2 to 8 and that’s how many estimated cases there have been in the USA.

Over 100,000,000 have had this thing already.

Hence the 0.02% fatality rate.

That’s twice that of the flu, for comparison.

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“ The latest estimate from the CDC ” ? I can’t find any RECENT statistic for that at cdc.gov

There were numerous early references to similar statistics, but they were all based on surveys done in March and April, when the USA had an almost nonexistent testing capability. Recently, the test numbers in the USA are far more substantial, which might change that number dramatically

Do you have a URL for a RECENT article on this subject?

Thanks

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The CDC’s latest coronavirus revelation will blow your mind – BGR

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Thanks! I frequently read BGR also and missed that. But that article also covers only until September. With the frighteningly steep exponential rise in cases since then, the undiagnosed number is likely to have decreased, but I will admit that my 2:1 ratio was far too low.

Even going by September numbers, 84% of the country had not yet been infected, yet more than 200,000 deaths had occurred by then. That implies an additional ~ 1 million deaths assuming no reduction in rate due to successful vaccination. ( The vaccine will have no effect on deaths if you refuse to get it)

But I still question the need for people to use statistics to attempt to minimize the danger. I live in Utah, and doctors and nurses are pleading daily on the evening local news to follow all suggested virus mitigation protocols because the hospitals here are nearly FULL. I have lived here 33 years, and I have never heard of hospitals having no vacancy. FULL hospitals should be a huge warning signal that this is not a drill.

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https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...aa1780/6000389

In that link there is a link to the 32 page PDF. Lots of good information that will never hit the pages of CNN et al.

From the “Results” summary:

We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0–3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8–9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020.

Seven weeks later as cases have gone up, add in whatever additional amount you think would be accurate to get to where we are now.

100,000,000+

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Thanks, good source.

One last math demo, then I have to get back to my busy VEOP life... (Not!)

200,000 deaths by September divided by 53,000,000 estimated cases by then (from summary on p14) results in 0.0037 which is 0.4% not the much lower number that has been tossed around in this thread. So a little less than a half of one percent. Still too risky to play games with IMHO.

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Now just adjust those numbers for age (over 75), BMI, diabetes, heart disease, and immune weakness and you will arrive at your real risk.

CDC website - COVID deaths by age table. If you do the math, only 8% of totals deaths in the US have been younger than 55. Less than 600 TOTAL under 24 years old.

As I understand it (little), the CDC takes a couple of years to compile total US death rates; last one I could find was for 2018.

If that's true, we won't really know just how much Covid spiked the "normal" death rates until 2023, at the very earliest. With the POS* President speech talking about 250,000 additional deaths over 4 weeks, that would mean a "death spike" of 11% total mortality over and above the usual death rate in the US. Double/triple that if the numbers are the same going through Jan-Feb-March.

Mass graves, unless mortuaries are equipped to deal with 10-20% burials in the middle of mass restrictions on how they do their jobs.

Teasing those numbers out will be the topic of some/many PHD dissertations, but many years from now.


* - Party of Science (!)

I’ve tried researching, but I can’t make heads or tails of the organic chemistry journals. I’m trying to understand the nuts-and-bolts safety of these new vaccines:

Can anyone (in Bubba terms) describe how they manufacture these new mRNA vaccines?
If it’s a carefully choreographed delicate micro strand, how do they insure the duplication millions of times is accurate?
Is this a “printed” item from some kind of A-C-T-G machine or do they have a “master key” and transcribe off it?
Forgive my ignorance, but how do they make sure out of the billion? bit strand, the chain isn’t accidentally mis-coded with one misplaced/corrupted nucleotide, causing a (potential) other disease/cancer/infirmity?