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Old 03-05-2021, 09:56 AM
  #1271  
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Originally Posted by Eldee5 View Post
BS said 700 - 800 As in the next AE next month or the one after.
700-800 A’s seem like a lot, but I don’t remember what a good AE looks like anymore.
How many A’s were awarded during the May 2017 AE? The one were probation pilots were awarded A’s. If you were brazen enough to Capt the Maddog, it was yours for the taking. Those were crazy times and it’s looking more and more like what’s just around the corner.
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Old 03-05-2021, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by 180ToAJ View Post
700-800 A’s seem like a lot, but I don’t remember what a good AE looks like anymore.
It is a lot. I do seem to remember one of the AEs being close to these numbers though.
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Old 03-05-2021, 10:13 AM
  #1273  
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Originally Posted by velosnow View Post
Sim rumors only slightly better than check airman rumors
In August 2001 a recurrent sim instructor told me that Delta Express was going so well in MCO that they had a 50 airplane duplication planned for LAS that would be announced shortly.......three months later I was furloughed as they announced the end of Delta Express operations.
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Old 03-05-2021, 10:23 AM
  #1274  
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Originally Posted by nene View Post
In August 2001 a recurrent sim instructor told me that Delta Express was going so well in MCO that they had a 50 airplane duplication planned for LAS that would be announced shortly.......three months later I was furloughed as they announced the end of Delta Express operations.
I mean, not that I don't think their rumors aren't especially untrustworthy, but let's not pretend one of the most damaging events in aviation history didn't happen a month after he told you that.
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Old 03-05-2021, 10:56 AM
  #1275  
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Originally Posted by 180ToAJ View Post
700-800 A’s seem like a lot, but I don’t remember what a good AE looks like anymore.
How many A’s were awarded during the May 2017 AE? The one were probation pilots were awarded A’s. If you were brazen enough to Capt the Maddog, it was yours for the taking. Those were crazy times and it’s looking more and more like what’s just around the corner.
My bold prediction is 1000-1200 CA positions on the next AE. We lost 1800 pilots in September, the vast majority of which were captains. This is shown by currently having 2000 more FOs than CAs system-wide. That would mean 1000 positions just to even out the crew ratios.
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Old 03-05-2021, 11:09 AM
  #1276  
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Originally Posted by Bergman View Post
This is shown by currently having 2000 more FOs than CAs system-wide. That would mean 1000 positions just to even out the crew ratios.
Not to mention that the captain side of any domestic category is generally a greater number than F/Os with increased annual vacation, slightly greater sick/LTD usage, etc.

Several categories showing this obvious and large disparity are likely to have significant left seat vacancies posted.

Of course, it's too late for this summer, and both seats on the 320 and 737 in most bases will be unlimited rolling thunder from around May to September.
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Old 03-05-2021, 11:26 AM
  #1277  
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Originally Posted by CBreezy View Post
I mean, not that I don't think their rumors aren't especially untrustworthy, but let's not pretend one of the most damaging events in aviation history didn't happen a month after he told you that.
CBreezy, nice! Good one.
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Old 03-05-2021, 11:59 AM
  #1278  
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Originally Posted by Bergman View Post
My bold prediction is 1000-1200 CA positions on the next AE. We lost 1800 pilots in September, the vast majority of which were captains. This is shown by currently having 2000 more FOs than CAs system-wide. That would mean 1000 positions just to even out the crew ratios.
Keep in mind the WB categories normally have lots of extra FO’s, as much as 2:1 due to 3 pilot Ops.

That is, when they stop flying domestically, and start flying international again. Not sure that will happen all that soon, but within the next year the trajectory will be up. Hard to say, but Insuspect they will be a little cautious with this AE, and add more A’s and (backfill) B’s later this year. But it’s very possible the “real” bid in a month or two will have massive A numbers.
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Old 03-05-2021, 12:10 PM
  #1279  
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I think a lot of pilots are hesitant to bid on a 365 day AE and put their lives on standby for a year. Some might pass hoping there will be a bid with a shorter conversion window soon after.
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Old 03-05-2021, 12:24 PM
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Training capacity will be an issue if not the issue, we still have guys waiting months for TOE,
we are short instructors and line check pilots now, how many of the local instructors will want to pick up extra
work? esp the E periods?
There are other training mysteries that still can’t be solved also...
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