5 year Market Outlook opinions
#91
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Big ones
Posts: 708
So is that something like a black market, or a ‘dark web’?
#92
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,638
Those governments might not have a choice. I don't think success/failure of governments are in any way interrelated on their currency. There are plenty of countries where the dollar is taken/preferred over the local currency. Not to say it is exclusive, but if you pay in dollars rather than gozintas you get better prices, and if you pay with a big bill it gets even better. With cryptocurrency being anonymous and essentially stateless, people can move it around freely. I have asked the question before, and I still wonder how our government... ANY government taxes crypto gains. If one buys it at an ATM with cash, and subsequently sells it at a profit on a similar ATM, how are you taxed on that gain? Frankly, I think governments are scared to death of it, because they know they can't prove shiite about who has it, how much they paid or their profits on it unless it comes fro a brokerage house.
Won’t be long and the government will fix the loophole you describe. In the interim, failure to report the capital gain to the IRS is not worth it if you get caught.
#93
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Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 187
“Whatever happens, we have got, the Maxim gun, and they have not.”
I understand the dream of cryptocurrency and appreciate it. I truly do. But.
There is no way the US or China will cede their national monetary policies to anonymous computer algorithms.
If it gets too big, or too disruptive, they’ll end it. By force. They may issue their own dollar/renminbi crypto, but will come down like the hammer of god on anyone getting caught using anything else.
Just my guess. But I just push buttons for a living.
I understand the dream of cryptocurrency and appreciate it. I truly do. But.
There is no way the US or China will cede their national monetary policies to anonymous computer algorithms.
If it gets too big, or too disruptive, they’ll end it. By force. They may issue their own dollar/renminbi crypto, but will come down like the hammer of god on anyone getting caught using anything else.
Just my guess. But I just push buttons for a living.
It was built with these problems in mind.
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 187
Those governments might not have a choice. I don't think success/failure of governments are in any way interrelated on their currency. There are plenty of countries where the dollar is taken/preferred over the local currency. Not to say it is exclusive, but if you pay in dollars rather than gozintas you get better prices, and if you pay with a big bill it gets even better. With cryptocurrency being anonymous and essentially stateless, people can move it around freely. I have asked the question before, and I still wonder how our government... ANY government taxes crypto gains. If one buys it at an ATM with cash, and subsequently sells it at a profit on a similar ATM, how are you taxed on that gain? Frankly, I think governments are scared to death of it, because they know they can't prove shiite about who has it, how much they paid or their profits on it unless it comes fro a brokerage house.
possibility two. They just tax the heck out of all Bitcoin transactions in the US ala tobacco.
I think two is most likely but the government is going to try to get “their” share.
#95
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Its not digital currency its digital gold. Its a store of value like gold, some real estate; even stocks are starting to take on that role. The more one thinks "cash is trash" because its a double digit per year melting ice cube of intentionally devaued and debased (aka stolen) monetary energy, the more one moves that entropic decay into something else anyway. Look at some of the insane PE's that are laughably blown out yet continue to attract currency. Real estate is higher than before the 2008 crash. There will always be stores of value people move cash to. Even artwork and collectables can sometimes surge when currencies are wielded as a weapon to steal from the working class.
Bitcoin still requires cash to get into and in most cases cash to get out of. KYC/AML regs will only help it long term. Its barely used for criminal activity as it is and much less so than cash anyway. Its value isn't derived much at all from its perceived anonymity (every transaction in its history is open source and verifiable anyway). The vast majority of it is value is from its value storage properties that make it superior to pretty much everything else including metals. "Its pharmaceutical grade digital gold that stores infinite monetary energy over time without power loss" as Michael Saylor says.
Some talking head just popped off about how the real news with TSLA's Bitcoin purchase is that it enables customers to buy cars with Bitcoin. That was so stupid I can't believe they have an analcyst dumb enough to actually think that.
#96
Dr. Michael Burry on Bitcoin
IMO Bitcoin a speculative investment that's best traded on momentum
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
IMO Bitcoin a speculative investment that's best traded on momentum
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
#97
That's really not an accurate way to look at it though. While the riff raff wonders how they can buy coffees with it, big corporations and billionaires are buying the coins from the weak hands and flippers. It was never designed to replace currencies for typical transactions. Its not particularly great at that anyway in either speed or cost. It will never replace a nation's currency unless the nation wants it to and even then it would require a currency like secondary layer anyway.
Its not digital currency its digital gold. Its a store of value like gold, some real estate; even stocks are starting to take on that role. The more one thinks "cash is trash" because its a double digit per year melting ice cube of intentionally devaued and debased (aka stolen) monetary energy, the more one moves that entropic decay into something else anyway. Look at some of the insane PE's that are laughably blown out yet continue to attract currency. Real estate is higher than before the 2008 crash. There will always be stores of value people move cash to. Even artwork and collectables can sometimes surge when currencies are wielded as a weapon to steal from the working class.
Bitcoin still requires cash to get into and in most cases cash to get out of. KYC/AML regs will only help it long term. Its barely used for criminal activity as it is and much less so than cash anyway. Its value isn't derived much at all from its perceived anonymity (every transaction in its history is open source and verifiable anyway). The vast majority of it is value is from its value storage properties that make it superior to pretty much everything else including metals. "Its pharmaceutical grade digital gold that stores infinite monetary energy over time without power loss" as Michael Saylor says.
Some talking head just popped off about how the real news with TSLA's Bitcoin purchase is that it enables customers to buy cars with Bitcoin. That was so stupid I can't believe they have an analcyst dumb enough to actually think that.
Its not digital currency its digital gold. Its a store of value like gold, some real estate; even stocks are starting to take on that role. The more one thinks "cash is trash" because its a double digit per year melting ice cube of intentionally devaued and debased (aka stolen) monetary energy, the more one moves that entropic decay into something else anyway. Look at some of the insane PE's that are laughably blown out yet continue to attract currency. Real estate is higher than before the 2008 crash. There will always be stores of value people move cash to. Even artwork and collectables can sometimes surge when currencies are wielded as a weapon to steal from the working class.
Bitcoin still requires cash to get into and in most cases cash to get out of. KYC/AML regs will only help it long term. Its barely used for criminal activity as it is and much less so than cash anyway. Its value isn't derived much at all from its perceived anonymity (every transaction in its history is open source and verifiable anyway). The vast majority of it is value is from its value storage properties that make it superior to pretty much everything else including metals. "Its pharmaceutical grade digital gold that stores infinite monetary energy over time without power loss" as Michael Saylor says.
Some talking head just popped off about how the real news with TSLA's Bitcoin purchase is that it enables customers to buy cars with Bitcoin. That was so stupid I can't believe they have an analcyst dumb enough to actually think that.
All fiat currencies are inherently inflationary and meet the same fate. Most here know that. (you certainly do)
Cryptocurrencies try to address that by having a forever set scare amount of "backing" by the finite number of promised "tokens". So far so, so good. No central bank can inflate the value away...something I think about a great deal with the now annual $1-2 TRILLION dollar "emergency" bills being passed.
What they don't have is the "full faith and credit" of a national government; only the true believer's who are willing to trade actual national currencies into bitcoin and back out of it again. So this may be a pyramid scheme, it may be influence with a small "i", but it doesn't have something national governments have: POWER. Pure, unadulterated, throw you in jail, take all your assets, rendition your family, blow up your country, wreck your nation level power. All backed by national economies that they can command, at least for awhile.
Crypto is a fascinating experiment to try and decouple value from national fiat currencies; I can't imagine it being allowed in any meaningful scale before it gets clamped down on, hard. As a substitute to say, gold? It's an interesting thought. But one thing is for sure: if it succeeds as a storage of value, it will be the top 1% that gets all the value out of it. Small fish might get lucky, but will probably just get eaten.
Wish I'd bought some Bitcoin, but I, along with Charlie Munger, think is very, very highly speculative.
---
Now a national, say, US Dollar crypto would be interesting...and terrifying. Sweeden, Finland, and China are headed that way (electronic transactions only); the US is generally moving that direction as well. Imagine being required by law to conduct every single domestic transaction on a US government mandated crypto. Great news for the the government, not so good for the underground economy. So it probably won't happen...plenty of under the table transactions conducted by all levels of US businesses.
#98
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
He also just warned that the entire foundation of the non Bitcoin ("traditional") system is ripe for Wiemar levels of hyper inflation/depression/crash. What we've done in response to the viral helmet fire we set on purpose is far beyond the attention span of the quarterly numbers crowd. Lots of damage has been done and more is on the way. Good luck finding safety anywhere if his over all prediction comes true, especially stocks or real estate, and "fuggetabowtit" for any savings. If that happens having some Bitcoin is likely better than having none.
Trading it takes even more skill and "time on screen" than anything else. 24/7/365 in all markets in all currencies and traditional alghorithms don't seem to apply as well. The entire sector is still trying to figure out what, if any, new MA's to use. Good luck trading it, or anything else when the house of cards comes down. Not financial advice.
Trading it takes even more skill and "time on screen" than anything else. 24/7/365 in all markets in all currencies and traditional alghorithms don't seem to apply as well. The entire sector is still trying to figure out what, if any, new MA's to use. Good luck trading it, or anything else when the house of cards comes down. Not financial advice.
#99
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Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 175
He also just warned that the entire foundation of the non Bitcoin ("traditional") system is ripe for Wiemar levels of hyper inflation/depression/crash. What we've done in response to the viral helmet fire we set on purpose is far beyond the attention span of the quarterly numbers crowd. Lots of damage has been done and more is on the way. Good luck finding safety anywhere if his over all prediction comes true, especially stocks or real estate, and "fuggetabowtit" for any savings. If that happens having some Bitcoin is likely better than having none.
Trading it takes even more skill and "time on screen" than anything else. 24/7/365 in all markets in all currencies and traditional alghorithms don't seem to apply as well. The entire sector is still trying to figure out what, if any, new MA's to use. Good luck trading it, or anything else when the house of cards comes down. Not financial advice.
Trading it takes even more skill and "time on screen" than anything else. 24/7/365 in all markets in all currencies and traditional alghorithms don't seem to apply as well. The entire sector is still trying to figure out what, if any, new MA's to use. Good luck trading it, or anything else when the house of cards comes down. Not financial advice.
#100
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,117
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