5 year Market Outlook opinions
01-26-2021, 09:03 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,458
Originally Posted by Trip7
Municipal bonds are a good option. In the search for yield also consider MLPs. Entire sector was left for dead last March providing opportunities that provide sheer outrageous value. EPD is best in class with an outstanding balance sheet and just under 9% yield currently. Similar tax benefits to Real Estate partnerships.
Outstanding explanation of MLPs can be found here:
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/...tnerships-mlps
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Outstanding explanation of MLPs can be found here:
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/...tnerships-mlps
Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
As for the original post. DYODD, look at all the fees, read the fine print, etc. Learning how the salesman is compensated for the offering will tell you a great deal. It sounds like a cleaver sales pitch for an annuity loaded with fees. "Participate in market gains, without risking the downside..." You may be able to construct your own portfolio with limited downside risk using options. It sounds crazy, but you can actually flatten out the volatility of returns by selling options.
Another point to consider is making passive investments across a few CRE syndications. Assuming 500k of capital, you could deploy it across 5-10 offerings. Stick with yield plays or value add. Don't gamble on a development deal when looking for stable returns. The few I've invested in are returning 6-8% Cash on Cash. Cash out refis or equity distribution at sale will boost the returns further.
01-29-2021, 01:34 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
Half the companies in the S&P 500 are going bankrupt.
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
01-29-2021, 09:07 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Gramercy Riffs
Posts: 491
Originally Posted by gzsg
...beyond your wildest dreams....
01-29-2021, 09:41 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Originally Posted by gzsg
Half the companies in the S&P 500 are going bankrupt.
The continuation and acceleration of the loss of the dollar reserve hegemony is going to hurt very badly as it shakes out, but is necessary to even have a chance at free and fair money for the average working person again going forward.
02-01-2021, 03:56 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
Bitcoin. The great equalizer.
02-02-2021, 07:37 AM
#16
New Hire
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: Concourse A
Posts: 780
Originally Posted by gzsg
Half the companies in the S&P 500 are going bankrupt.
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
Agree..are you in all the Ark funds? Big disruptions in the decade ahead.
02-02-2021, 08:20 AM
#17
Super Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,868
Originally Posted by mispoken
First; if this makes you comfortable you should do it. Finding the right risk is personal. Just realize you give up returns in exchange for that perceived safety. If you’d done this over the last decade it would have cost you a significant amount of money. Also take into account any fees for the “professional management” of this vehicle, that too erodes your returns further.
You say we are due for a “correction” (is the market currently wrong?), but we already know this WILL happen. The market as we know it, wouldn’t exist without this feature. It’s a good thing. This is the risk that provides us outsized returns compared to your savings account. If the thought of your balance going down 25% sometime in the next 3 years makes you ill, perhaps the account you mention is good for you. Something I like to do to keep perspective is look at where a 25% “crash” would leave us, date wise. If SPY, currently at 390 dropped 25% today it would take us down to about 290 or roughly May 2020 levels. If ones tactic is to avoid corrections, you can accomplish this by sitting out and waiting to jump in at the next correction, but you missed out on everything leading up to May 2020, so what did you REALLY gain? This is why methodical investing and sitting on your hands really works.
I don’t put much stock in “valuation”. These are often talking points for CNBC talking heads and are irrelevant. Many high growth, successful companies are missed because people think these metrics are fortune tellers. And, often people avoid the market completely when some magical metric throws up a “red flag. I always like to ask what a “fair valuation” is when someone’s says something is overvalued. It’s a fun question because this it is impossible to answer. Do we look at an average p/E of the market over the last 10 years? If we are doing that, why aren’t we looking at the average return of the market too? If we did that, I’d say the better bet is on the average return of the market versus an average ratio of the day.
Best advice I can give; ignore metrics, methodically invest in what makes you comfortable, avoid minute to minute ticks up and down, sit on your hands. If you do this through up and down markets, in the end this method works. If an investment vehicle with a guarantee of no loss makes you sleep better at night you should do it. But, consider what you give up in exchange for that.
And always remember, NKA; nobody knows anything.
You say we are due for a “correction” (is the market currently wrong?), but we already know this WILL happen. The market as we know it, wouldn’t exist without this feature. It’s a good thing. This is the risk that provides us outsized returns compared to your savings account. If the thought of your balance going down 25% sometime in the next 3 years makes you ill, perhaps the account you mention is good for you. Something I like to do to keep perspective is look at where a 25% “crash” would leave us, date wise. If SPY, currently at 390 dropped 25% today it would take us down to about 290 or roughly May 2020 levels. If ones tactic is to avoid corrections, you can accomplish this by sitting out and waiting to jump in at the next correction, but you missed out on everything leading up to May 2020, so what did you REALLY gain? This is why methodical investing and sitting on your hands really works.
I don’t put much stock in “valuation”. These are often talking points for CNBC talking heads and are irrelevant. Many high growth, successful companies are missed because people think these metrics are fortune tellers. And, often people avoid the market completely when some magical metric throws up a “red flag. I always like to ask what a “fair valuation” is when someone’s says something is overvalued. It’s a fun question because this it is impossible to answer. Do we look at an average p/E of the market over the last 10 years? If we are doing that, why aren’t we looking at the average return of the market too? If we did that, I’d say the better bet is on the average return of the market versus an average ratio of the day.
Best advice I can give; ignore metrics, methodically invest in what makes you comfortable, avoid minute to minute ticks up and down, sit on your hands. If you do this through up and down markets, in the end this method works. If an investment vehicle with a guarantee of no loss makes you sleep better at night you should do it. But, consider what you give up in exchange for that.
And always remember, NKA; nobody knows anything.
Sage counsel indeed. I almost typed council, but then I would have been mispoken. And if you are mispoken then how can I be? One might even go as far as to say you are not really "mispoken" at all.
Just remember - "Wherever you go - there you are."
Scoop
02-02-2021, 01:36 PM
#18
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 32
Originally Posted by gzsg
Half the companies in the S&P 500 are going bankrupt.
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
Massive changes underway. Solar, EVs, battery storage, blockchain, bitcoin.
Study everything Cathie Wood says and writes.
Tom Lee, Tony Seba, Michael Saylor.
They will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. IMO.
It’s another MSTR day.😃
She is a rock star!
02-02-2021, 04:57 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 377
Originally Posted by beernutt
Vote for Pedro.
I feel like this jewel was lost in the shuffle. Well done, beernutt. Well done.
02-06-2021, 12:40 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
Originally Posted by gzsg
Bitcoin. The great equalizer.
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