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5 year Market Outlook opinions

Old 05-19-2022, 12:59 PM
  #611  
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Keeping my utilities but slowly getting out of energy.
All it takes is the Ukraine fight to find peace and the oil assets are down double digit. Couple it with a coming recession and less people will be buying oil to run transportation, freight, factories, plastic, power.
Building cash and will take a look at beaten down blue chips and tech after they get clobbered again after the next fed rate raise. Putting companies on my wish list that are unlikely to bankrupt.
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Old 05-19-2022, 01:01 PM
  #612  
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Originally Posted by Trip7 View Post
Keep following Free Cashflows and you'll do very well. IMO Energy right now is the surest bet. Then Shipping but demand on E commerce could change quickly with inflation. Next would be China Tech but not for the faint of heart with Political noise.

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If I am used to the Cummins rolling coal with 37's mounted on 24's and now I have to light foot it around because it costs $500 to fill it and the bed tank, I may not plan that trip on Spirit to go see my favorite country music singer. Heck, I may even give up on breakfast and lottery tickets at Circle K.
All joking aside, whether it was Fox or MSNBC, all commentaries were in alignment that further increases in costs at the pump will start to punish demand, most in agreement at $5 for 87.

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Old 05-19-2022, 01:41 PM
  #613  
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Originally Posted by JustNarced View Post
If I am used to the Cummins rolling coal with 37's mounted on 24's and now I have to light foot it around because it costs $500 to fill it and the bed tank, I may not plan that trip on Spirit to go see my favorite country music singer. Heck, I may even give up on breakfast and lottery tickets at Circle K.

All joking aside, whether it was Fox or MSNBC, all commentaries were in alignment that further increases in costs at the pump will start to punish demand, most in agreement at $5 for 87.



That topic has caused many interesting discussions. Coming out of COVID IMO people will be willing to pay more to travel or just flat out get out of the house vs give themselves a self imposed Lockdown. Moreover the strain on energy supplies will likely be sustained for at least the next 3 years even if the Sanctions were unwound today. We're in for a ride over the next few years

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Old 05-19-2022, 02:56 PM
  #614  
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Originally Posted by JustNarced View Post
If I am used to the Cummins rolling coal with 37's mounted on 24's and now I have to light foot it around because it costs $500 to fill it and the bed tank, I may not plan that trip on Spirit to go see my favorite country music singer. Heck, I may even give up on breakfast and lottery tickets at Circle K.
All joking aside, whether it was Fox or MSNBC, all commentaries were in alignment that further increases in costs at the pump will start to punish demand, most in agreement at $5 for 87.

when you put a 10 spot on the Waffle House counter and you don’t get change for smokes……inflation
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Old 05-19-2022, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by notEnuf View Post
when you put a 10 spot on the Waffle House counter and you don’t get change for smokes……inflation
LMFAO!

e.d.w.i.n
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Old 05-19-2022, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Trip7 View Post
That topic has caused many interesting discussions. Coming out of COVID IMO people will be willing to pay more to travel or just flat out get out of the house vs give themselves a self imposed Lockdown. Moreover the strain on energy supplies will likely be sustained for at least the next 3 years even if the Sanctions were unwound today. We're in for a ride over the next few years

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Agree. Quite a few people relocated and may be happy in place vs airline travel.
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Old 05-20-2022, 11:34 AM
  #617  
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Originally Posted by Gunfighter View Post
You completely nailed one of my favorite aspects of CRE investing. I get a price quote at purchase, refinance and sale. Anything else is just mental gymnastics that sucks time away from hobbies and vacations. I have no idea what my real estate values did this week, but I've been mountain biking 5 of the last 5 days. I'll check in on the 1st for rent collections and reconcile my bank accounts.

Your last point is a great reminder that now may be a good time for a ROTH conversion at depressed values.

PSA - You can purchase up to 10K of I bonds via Treasury Direct for a 9% government guaranteed 1 year return.

*DYODD, YMMV, objects in the rear view mirror are closing fast if drive a Miata.

My undertanding is the current rate is only good until October, so i don’t think that 9 percent is guaranteed for a year, only 6 months.
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Old 05-20-2022, 12:50 PM
  #618  
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Originally Posted by Xjtpilot518 View Post
My undertanding is the current rate is only good until October, so i don’t think that 9 percent is guaranteed for a year, only 6 months.
Thanks for the correction. 9.62 is only guaranteed for the first 6 mos. You have to hold the bond for 1 year before redemption, so probably won't collect that rate the entire time. As a pile on, you forfeit the last 3 mos interest if redeemed before 5 years.
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Old 05-20-2022, 08:50 PM
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My most important take away from the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham is in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. (Panic popularity poll). In the long term it is a weighing machine (how much are companies really worth).

Such a simple, but profound insight.
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Old 05-24-2022, 12:14 PM
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Boy, when she unravels, she unravels fast and furious!

Thought I’d post this article to lighten the mood…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/29/bill...-approach.html

(note his timing)

next, wait for him to cry on CNBC, that will be the bottom! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

and yet….he’s still widely published as a “guru” 🤣🤣🤣

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/bill...inflation.html

#NKA

Last edited by mispoken; 05-24-2022 at 12:48 PM.
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