20Fathoms

Anybody know what the max number of pilots we can put through in a year is? I was pretty shocked that JLs latest email said 2023 would be about 100 percent of 2019. If that’s true we are so far behind the power curve that max thrust needed to be applied yesterday as the numbers don’t look good.

Somebody check my math but we lost what, 1800 guys to the VEOP? There’s probably about 1200 or so other retirements between 2019 and summer 2023 (May be overestimating here a bit but some may go early). That’s roughly 3000 pilots short even with all the UNAcorns back. Also they’d have to be on property by spring 2023 to be online by summer and that’s only 2 freaking years away. 3000 new pilots in 2 years?! And that’s if they started hiring today. Can the training department handle that? Also we were woefully understaffed for summer 2019 to begin with.....Gonna be interesting.

EDVPLT

Not to mention the lower TLV. We probably are looking at needing more than 3500 by summer 2023. One townhall mentioned we could do about 130 a month but I don't think that included any outside sim availability. We also have a new 220 sim coming online soon and bays are gonna be opening/open from the 88/90 so I assume they could get some more 320/737 sims. Problem is that doesn't seem like enough either. I think they would be able to find enough outside sims to use but then the problem becomes is there enough instructors and LCAs for OE.

Gone Flying

As of right now we will have just over 11,600 total pilots on the seniority list for summer 2023. We had ~14,400 pilots on the seniority list summer ‘19. While we have a lower TLV now we also have a simpler fleet structure that will probably offset those lower hours. Another X factor is as of right now, more than half the pilots were hired 2007 or later with most of those being 2014 or later hires. In theory the company will probably get a few more hours out of this group as they have lower vacation and sick accrual than the pilots who took the VEOP. So 2500 pilots may allow them to be 2019 size with lots of green slips. If they plan to have all us UNAcorns back online by October 2021, they will have about 20 months to hire about 2500 pilots. they will have to to hire ~125/month at least to get to that goal by May 2023.

Right before COVID we were hiring 140-150/month

DeltaboundRedux

If the Simpsons doesn't have it, Star Trek does.


Fly her apart then!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7xvi6GL9Fk

gloopy

True, however that 140-150 number was also with the 88/90/777 sims. While those can and eventually will be replaced with more sims for current fleets, that seems to move at a crawl compared to many things in the industry. Difficult but not impossible...as long as they don't mess up the timing by trying to pinch too many short term pennies.

Gone Flying

that’s a good point. I do think we added a 220 sim where an old 88/90 sim was. I’m not sure if having fewer lateral movement between NB fleets with the simplified structure would offset that added sim time. I know we had 2 777 sims, how many 88/90 sims were there?

FangsF15

5. 4x88 & 1x90

Gone Flying

thanks, I would guess most those sim bays will have cani-bus sims in them in 3 years.

Thruster

Are we selling those things or are they being burned in effigy?

FangsF15