5 April Capt staffing math
 

If the company plan is to have ~80% of summer 2019 operation during the summer of 2022.. (JL at Stan mtg)

The 5 Apr AE is claiming to staff the operation for summer 2022.. (BS AE memo)

During VEOP about 2000 dudes hanged up the gloves, vast majority were WB Captains.. (ish as l recall)

The 5 Apr AE has 580 WB Captain positions..

I need serious help with my math.. Tennessee public education system fails me again. Please help me to figure out what I am missing.
Did JL just talk about “domestic only at 80%, international still in the toilet”?? Anybody in the know?
Thx!
Happy Easter!!

Remember we parked the M88s and 777s, this will skew the numbers quite a bit.

The math is more complicated that that. Upon reaching the expiration date or block hour trigger, the new, lower TLV limits drop into place.

We also awarded a fair number of WBA spots after the VEOP

Yes, but shiny new jets are coming also. Some are WBs.
We took 35 in 2020, 34 this year, by the time its summer 2022 we should get another 10 321neo, 4 339, 1 350 and some 220’s.
Could be a wash?
777 somewhat offset by 339: 4 in 2019, 4 in 2020, 3 in 2021, 8 in 2022 (4 should be by the summer).

Its just either 5 apr AE is shy on Captains or stop calling it summer 2022 all and done, no?

Company is usually over conservative with their projections. Summer 2022 will likely be 90-95% of 2019 as international will bounce back quicker than expected with less competitors due bankruptcies(ie Norwegian). Due to the retirement of several 767s Delta has a hole in their Widebody network and must bring on more Widebodies in the near term. I think redline operations will be part of the new normal

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Recently read an article about 787 being very efficient on high density domestic routes like LA - NYC. Just sayin' maybe we bring back the domestic/international category ala 7ER.

Does anyone know what Delta’s ratio of domestic to international capacity was in Summer 2019?

Assuming it was 2:1 domestic...80% of Summer 19 capacity likely means -90% of Summer 19 for domestic and ~60% of Summer 19 for international. If Delta was 3:1 domestic in Summer 19, then that is 90% domestic and 50% international to get to 80% of summer 2019 numbers.

777’s are parked. How many pilots were on the 777? Maybe 400? Several 763’s have been parked.

I believe the new bid numbers make sense.

I see your point and I’ll admit I haven’t done the math to see how the new vs retired airframes balance out. I want to believe we will get back to 15k pilots, but color me skeptical.

Right. This AE seems like it's aimed at trying to salvage what they can of this summer. Our VP of Network was quoted in the WSJ the other day saying that they're now expecting to fly 80-85% of the summer of 2019 by the end of this summer.

I'd bet by fall we see another AE that includes additional 330 spots and opens up substantially more spots for newhires. I'd guess over 1000. That'll be the real AE for the summer of 2022.

How many mandatory retirements in the next 18 months, outside of the remaining VEOP guys? The math hasn’t added up since the day they published the MOAD. Or stopped hiring. Or let go 1800+ in the VEOP. I’ve given up trying to make sense of this. I just try to get the least sh1tty schedule I can and pickup a few extra $$ when it’s convenient.

On Deltanet: remainder of 2021-236 mandatory
2022-401 mandatory

And who is going to be flying those widebodies is the question.

That’s not an insignificant amount considering where we are right at this moment.

Pretty sure you are my brother from another mother.

A wise man once said nothing.


This is the true definition of productivity. My productivity not management's.

You are forgetting the bid posted after the VEOP closed. I believe the total VEOP widebody CA’s who retired were under 1200 looking at 7ER or above. They filled around 770 positions in the Aug bid. 770 plus 580 equals 1350 and they indicated there will be additional widebody bids before next summer.

I don't think there will ever be 2 separate categories for that ever again. And while I get why feather bedding pilots would want that, it just ain't happeing.

Maybe you just meant more domestic in the "international" fleets. In that case its possible for sure. But separate bid groups, reserves, displacements, etc? No way, never again.

You are right about the separate categories. There's no way management would limit the flexibility of the pilot group. If anything they would have us fly more derivatives like throwing the 765 in with the 7ER. But that will never happen either because the 7ER would get a free pay bump. I meant a dual operation with the 787 kind of like the bastardized trips the 7ER has. Domestic day end on the coast, international 3day, domestic day to finish. A true 6 day crap trip gives you the worst of both worlds.

Yeah it would depend on how it was implimented. The scenario(s) you describe could happen if the "optimizer/burnback" prime directives were the fulcrum of all things. However having some domestic trips in the bid pack could be a very good thing from a pilot QOL perspective. More options to build a line is a good thing. Sometimes PBS will throw a big trip to get a pilot "full" when a much smaller trip that doesn't exist would have done the trick.

Plus the over hyped and operationally pejorative "widebodies to MCO" rhetoric misses the RASM/CASM reality of certain markets sometimes. Especially the highly competitive transcon routes where ULCC's now throw dimes on the dollar lay flat seats on the market and will soon do so for trans Atlantic. We have to have the ability to seat dump on the seat dumpers at will.

You must know something JL doesn’t have marching orders for. That would be awesome!

You should see his seasonal weather forecast, you would be shocked the things no one can know but he "knows". Its really something amazing to behold, the GFS only goes out for 10 or 14 days and its garbage at the tail end, this trip7 guy, just kinda knows.

I have a perfect track record of forecasting leap year, to the day even. Just sayn' in case they need help with that.

Now do election day.

Election - An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office.

Day - A day is approximately the period during which the Earth completes one rotation around its axis, which takes around 24 hours.

[QUOTE=Lifeisgood;3216486]If the company plan is to have ~80% of summer 2019 operation during the summer of 2022.. (JL at Stan mtg)

The 5 Apr AE is claiming to staff the operation for summer 2022.. (BS AE memo)

During VEOP about 2000 dudes hanged up the gloves, vast majority were WB Captains.. (ish as l recall)

The 5 Apr AE has 580 WB Captain positions..

I need serious help with my math.. Tennessee public education system fails me again.Please help me to figure out what I am missing.
Did JL just talk about “domestic only at 80%, international still in the toilet”?? Anybody in the know?
Thx!
Happy Easter!![/QUOTE


Its almost as if you expect the company to handle staffing properly. :eek:

Scoop

Were 1996, 2004, 2008,...2020 leap years? Yes

Was 2000 a leap year? Yes

Was 1900 a leap year? No

Why?

The same reason 2100 won’t be either.

But ballots that show up 10 days later should still be counted...
And even though we know EXACTLY when each of those days are, it is racist to expect someone to get off their lazy ass and go 20 minutes away to get a free ID.

If the ballot was post marked on election day or earlier, then the vote was completed prior to the closing of the polls. If the post office holds it for 10 days then perhaps we should put more resources into the post office to make it run more efficiently. Which is exactly the opposite of what happened just before the election under the previous administration.

somehow for nearly 200+ years were had an election day. Now with all our technology, transportation capability etc. We've gone from a day, to a month.

I know, progress.

This isn’t exactly accurate- early US elections could and often were over multiple days depending on the state. Early returns could skew later votes though, so the law was changed around 1845. Regardless, we also spent close to a hundred years where only white male land owners could vote. Should we all expect that to come back as well since we did it so long?

Uh-oh, Viper-on-viper violence.

This place is all about fratricide, figuratively. :rolleyes:

unfortunately, there’s a significantly nonzero number of humans in this country who support exactly that.

former Eagle Driver No doubt!:D

😂

he’s right but also clearly a tanker toad. Since my favorite pilot training classmate was also Gucci I’ll forgive the insult.

What???? Based on what source, precisely?

There is a significantly nonzero number of humans in this country who think the earth is flat. And the societal impact of that thought is precisely the same, absolute zero.

Does every single threat have to devolve into the same damn fight?