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Old 04-04-2021, 07:06 AM   #1  
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Default 5 April Capt staffing math

If the company plan is to have ~80% of summer 2019 operation during the summer of 2022.. (JL at Stan mtg)

The 5 Apr AE is claiming to staff the operation for summer 2022.. (BS AE memo)

During VEOP about 2000 dudes hanged up the gloves, vast majority were WB Captains.. (ish as l recall)

The 5 Apr AE has 580 WB Captain positions..

I need serious help with my math.. Tennessee public education system fails me again. Please help me to figure out what I am missing.
Did JL just talk about “domestic only at 80%, international still in the toilet”?? Anybody in the know?
Thx!
Happy Easter!!
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:10 AM   #2  
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Remember we parked the M88s and 777s, this will skew the numbers quite a bit.
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:13 AM   #3  
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Remember we parked the M88s and 777s, this will skew the numbers quite a bit.
The math is more complicated that that. Upon reaching the expiration date or block hour trigger, the new, lower TLV limits drop into place.
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:22 AM   #4  
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We also awarded a fair number of WBA spots after the VEOP
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:36 AM   #5  
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Remember we parked the M88s and 777s, this will skew the numbers quite a bit.
Yes, but shiny new jets are coming also. Some are WBs.
We took 35 in 2020, 34 this year, by the time its summer 2022 we should get another 10 321neo, 4 339, 1 350 and some 220’s.
Could be a wash?
777 somewhat offset by 339: 4 in 2019, 4 in 2020, 3 in 2021, 8 in 2022 (4 should be by the summer).

Its just either 5 apr AE is shy on Captains or stop calling it summer 2022 all and done, no?
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:39 AM   #6  
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Originally Posted by Lifeisgood View Post
If the company plan is to have ~80% of summer 2019 operation during the summer of 2022.. (JL at Stan mtg)



The 5 Apr AE is claiming to staff the operation for summer 2022.. (BS AE memo)



During VEOP about 2000 dudes hanged up the gloves, vast majority were WB Captains.. (ish as l recall)



The 5 Apr AE has 580 WB Captain positions..



I need serious help with my math.. Tennessee public education system fails me again. Please help me to figure out what I am missing.

Did JL just talk about “domestic only at 80%, international still in the toilet”?? Anybody in the know?

Thx!

Happy Easter!!
Company is usually over conservative with their projections. Summer 2022 will likely be 90-95% of 2019 as international will bounce back quicker than expected with less competitors due bankruptcies(ie Norwegian). Due to the retirement of several 767s Delta has a hole in their Widebody network and must bring on more Widebodies in the near term. I think redline operations will be part of the new normal

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Old 04-04-2021, 07:44 AM   #7  
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Recently read an article about 787 being very efficient on high density domestic routes like LA - NYC. Just sayin' maybe we bring back the domestic/international category ala 7ER.
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:50 AM   #8  
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Does anyone know what Delta’s ratio of domestic to international capacity was in Summer 2019?

Assuming it was 2:1 domestic...80% of Summer 19 capacity likely means -90% of Summer 19 for domestic and ~60% of Summer 19 for international. If Delta was 3:1 domestic in Summer 19, then that is 90% domestic and 50% international to get to 80% of summer 2019 numbers.

777’s are parked. How many pilots were on the 777? Maybe 400? Several 763’s have been parked.

I believe the new bid numbers make sense.
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Old 04-04-2021, 08:24 AM   #9  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeisgood;[url=tel:3216511
3216511[/url]]Yes, but shiny new jets are coming also. Some are WBs.
We took 35 in 2020, 34 this year, by the time its summer 2022 we should get another 10 321neo, 4 339, 1 350 and some 220’s.
Could be a wash?
777 somewhat offset by 339: 4 in 2019, 4 in 2020, 3 in 2021, 8 in 2022 (4 should be by the summer).

Its just either 5 apr AE is shy on Captains or stop calling it summer 2022 all and done, no?
I see your point and I’ll admit I haven’t done the math to see how the new vs retired airframes balance out. I want to believe we will get back to 15k pilots, but color me skeptical.
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Old 04-04-2021, 09:15 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeisgood View Post
Yes, but shiny new jets are coming also. Some are WBs.
We took 35 in 2020, 34 this year, by the time its summer 2022 we should get another 10 321neo, 4 339, 1 350 and some 220’s.
Could be a wash?
777 somewhat offset by 339: 4 in 2019, 4 in 2020, 3 in 2021, 8 in 2022 (4 should be by the summer).

Its just either 5 apr AE is shy on Captains or stop calling it summer 2022 all and done, no?
Right. This AE seems like it's aimed at trying to salvage what they can of this summer. Our VP of Network was quoted in the WSJ the other day saying that they're now expecting to fly 80-85% of the summer of 2019 by the end of this summer.

I'd bet by fall we see another AE that includes additional 330 spots and opens up substantially more spots for newhires. I'd guess over 1000. That'll be the real AE for the summer of 2022.
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