Drum

I think you're wrong. Go look at the data. The wealthy have left in large numbers.

I fly out of NY, the airports are mostly ghost towns. They are slowly opening up, 1+ year on. I don't see traffic much other than flying over it. My crash pad is on the lower east side. I can say that traffic is not bad. Takes maybe 20 minutes to JFK from there most days. It seems that yes, unlike March or April of 2020, where broadway/timesquare was empty, yes, some vehicles are returning. Nothing like 2019 though.

I'm stuck on the 7ER doing those crappy non-commutable trips. That is all <60% in category can get you if not getting reserve. It really is a downer. Don't think we see Int'l pick up for awhile.

Trip7 - we actually do more than one red-eye per rotation sometimes. They've gone to imbedding a charter repo flight in some of them. You get that 0345 landing in PHX. ~28 hour layover, then do PHX-ATL, ATL-LAX. 10.5 hour layover then redeye back to JFK. Those are out there. The ER rotations have become no bueno since 2018ish.

Iceberg

What data should I be looking at? What I found shows the population growth slowed but it is still growing.

Drum

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/succe...mic/index.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-during-covid
https://nypost.com/2020/11/21/where-...rk-are-moving/
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/01...ving-new-york/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...g-leaving.html
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/02/...ere-they-went/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ts/4023477001/
https://247wallst.com/economy/2021/0...nds-last-year/
https://nypost.com/2020/08/11/new-yo...nyc-in-droves/
https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-...-idUSKBN28P1Q8
https://www.westernjournal.com/many-...d-crime-covid/
https://moneywise.com/a/americans-abandon-states
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-...es-study-shows
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...rich-skip-town
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkel...-theyre-going/
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/ne.../22/id/993374/
https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-est...onaire-florida

Just a few.....

Then there's the Uhaul site. Go look at availability and one way cost to move FROM NY versus TO NY.

vyperdriver

Just an interrogative...are these Top 1% moving in, i.e. the taxpayers, or even top 15%, or are these the bottom 1% to 20% looking for a free phone? I live in Florida and I am absolutely surrounded by New Yorkers and they all have a LOT more money than me. Just sayin...

Drum

I think I'm on the other coast from you. The ones moving here are not looking for free phones. They are paying $$$ cash money for waterfront property and anything else they can over here. Never seen it like this in my home state.

Majority are top earners and probably the top 10-15% moving out. Once the big investment houses start pulling chocks that will be the end of it.

DeltaboundRedux

NYC is still well established as an (air) port of entry from all over the world, especially Europe. As long as people are coming to the US, they'll have to fly to a large US Customs serviced hub before they bounce to their final destination. JFK fits that bill nicely, and it's hard to imagine another airport that could handle the normal, pre-Covid international traffic (CLT? MIA? ORD? ATL?----actually, IAD would fit the bill nicely.)

Unless "Open Skies" becomes a thing again. Who knows?

But the general trend of making one's $$$ in NYC/LAX then moving to FL/Western States to retire isn't exactly new. It's been accelerating for awhile anyway for plenty of reasons (cost of living a big part of it). Covid, and the work habits it inspired, just put more fuel on the get-out-of-huge-cities fires.

Drum

Don't disagree with NY airports - JFK - being a nice port of entry. Don't forget Boston either.

These are not retirees moving to my state. Not the type. Late 40's types. They're moving here because they telecommute in to their offices in NYC. Once they got cut from the office space, they boogied. More to follow. I said in earlier post, another thread; big, nice campuses are being built around major metro areas here in FL. Someone, something is moving here. What it is I don't know. But based on the types of folks moving in around me from NYC, my guess is.....something big?

I won't extend the derail anymore. We'll see in a few years how NYC fairs. It won't be guesswork then.

crewdawg

I remember reading about this famous billboard in Seattle...it sure aged well!

TransWorld

I remember it as well. Wonder if they can license it to some other blue hotbeds?

Eldee5

Again with the Ghost town. What Ghost town? I live here. I literally live in Manhattan. What Manhattan are you people taking about? This place has been opened since like fall. Seriously.