SoFloFlyer

Ahhhh that makes sense. Appreciate the info!

C17B74

So a 767-400 or A350 would be well down the line of a career path maybe. Perhaps 5-10 yrs for an FO is a wild guess and Capt what would that be like… just curious.

Denny Crane

I made Captain on the 330 (same pay rate as 764) at 55 in 2013 with 25 years. I suspect it has and/or will go earlier. I was the plug in Seattle for a year and very junior for several years.

Denny

NoDeskJob

the 767-400 can be had with 5.5 years in ATL or 2 years in NYC.
It used to go MUCH more senior, but the trip quality isn’t the same. NYC used to be pretty much all intl, but then they started getting a LOT of 2 day domestic with 0700 sign-in and 2100 sign outside

the 350 is a diff story. It still basically just does intl. it’s 5+ years just to be plug in DTW. ATL and lax are senior to that I think

sailingfun

With the planned hiring I would expect you could hold FO on both in 3 years. Maybe less on the 767-400. International CA will be 20 years plus. The old gold standard for a good airline career was widebody FO in 10 years, CA in 12 years, international in 20 years.

gloopy

Just to pile on with some more opinions written in pencil on a wet napkin:

Simply there is no way whatsoever to know the answers to your questions. No way. Anything, and I mean anything speculated along these lines is a total and complete guess based on past experiences, current trends and (even worse) prognostications of the future of a very volitile and fickle industry.

It all depends on the overall economy, the aviation specific economy, the airline in question's specific situation relative to those things, plus current and future contracts and the current and future individual bidding behavior of well over ten thousand pilots.

You framed your question in the context of 13,000 individual bidders "stove-piping" their bids into the future. Meaning every position goes at or near linear seniority order based on pay, size or mission prestige. That is often largely the case when times are lean for a while. But when times are booming and movement is fast, normally many, many thousands of pilots choose to "bypass" for basing, quality of life, monthly bidding power etc. This is the case because as long as the option to "upgrade" or get a "promotion" is available, thousands of pilots hang out to enjoy their relative seniority.

But there really is no "promotion" aspect in that sense; its only what, when and why individual bidders choose to bid various ways.

A while back during a period of fast movement there were 1 or 2 new captains at the 6 month seniority mark on the most undesireable plane in the most undesireable base. While 95% of the airline was saying "I can hold captain" the fact is there were only 2 super junior spots on one bid one time for 2 pilots and we didn't see it again. Just a few humble years prior to that, the "junior Captain" was 15-20 years).

We can see the same thing for widebodies. Some entire classes are forced to go to the 7ER. This happened a lot in 2007 for example, and may happen again on occasional bids, until the door slams shut suddenly for years. Trying to predict A350 Captain is a guess now that can be off by decades by then.

So to answer your question, there's simply no way to answer your question. Other than to say that there often isn't the strict promotion style hierarchy many think should exist. You mentioned "career path" which is one of the biggest reasons things can swing so wildly. Many thousands of pilots, especially when things are good, choose to take or remain in "lower positions" (so to speak) for a while or for a long time thus creating those anomoly "promotions" and its likely you would also do the same when your time comes.

PilotWombat

While everything is still up in the air (no pun intended), it's definitely faster now. Prior to covid, I was supposed to hit 50% on the seniority list (well into non-NYC A range) in less than 10 years just due to mandatory retirements. Now with the early out, guys seeing the light and bugging out early, and the dramatic hiring we're seeing now, I wouldn't be surprised if that gets cut by a few years.

If you're willing to take NYC, I would expect an A position in <5 yrs, WB B in 7-8, and WB CA in, I dunno, 15? Something like 80% of the current widebody As are retiring in the next 6 years.

flightbag

I don't get it. I thought pilots wanted to be pilots, not lackeys' for old senior captains. On the April AE, 5 years got you a 737 captain seat at both SEA and LAX.

fishforfun

NYC A 2-3, WB B <5 (much less for 765) WB A will stay at 3000 seniority or below, unless we see some big purchases. These are actuals and current.

bsh932

The most junior pilot awarded 765A on the April AE was 4068. As we get more 330s I think we will see 330A going around 4000 seniority eventually.