”Estimate” … “ Perhaps” …

Have you ever estimated anything when the data wasn’t available? I have. I trust my rep to do the best he can with the information available. He explained some variables and didn’t try to “justify” anything. He’s always been receptive to inputs and responsive to inquiry. If you haven’t had a similar experience you should probably vote for someone else or raise your hand to help. I find the number plausible based on the ignorance of operations/scheduling/PWA I detect on the flight deck. My hat is off to many of these folks - they’ve found a way to leave the job at work and they don’t sweat the small stuff.

You’re 0 for 1 on your guesses about me. No way in he77 I’d commit my and my family’s worklife to answering calls and questions from accusatory constituents like yourself.

You get one leg to use for every DH leg. If you’re two legging it for the deviation, the positive space leg has to be the second one (to the start of your trip). A month ago I needed the first leg to be the deviation. Icrew wagged its finger at me and even crew assist said they couldn’t help.

Contact contract admin. It's supposed to be irrelevant which leg is the DDH.

What about 8 E.8.b?

Well yes.

Let's say you live in BNA based in ATL and the end of your trip ends in DEN with a DH back to ATL.
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You should be able to DDH to MSP or DTW and JS to BNA. You also should be able to JS to MSP or DTW and DDH to ATL. If you get back to ATL, no matter what, you're done.

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Sure, there are uniformed estimates in our everyday lives that drive varying degrees of outcomes...maybe walking into the sports book and betting on a game you know nothing about because you like one team's mascot. Or estimating that the egg salad at your family picnic is ok to eat after being in the summer sun for four hours. Examples of relatively non-consequential estimates when no data is available.

And then there is irresponsibly making a long-term decision affecting thousands of people using a number pulled out of one's ass that can't possibly be vouched for.

Do you not see the problem with that? What if mgmt actually paid the missed 23M7 pilot 80% of the time? Why didn't he pull 80% out of his ass, and wouldn't that have resulted in another decision? Because without any data, 80% is as legitimate of a guess as 20%. Nah. That wouldn't fit his desired outcome.

This rep is attempting to launder his decision after the fact by trying to convince you with a made-up number--impossible to prove or disprove--without bothering to ascertain the actual number when it mattered. It's pure charlatanism. I'm just surprised that you can't or won't see what he's doing.

You can live a life where you don’t trust anyone - I don’t find that approach to be practical in my own life. I evaluate people that influence my life and I either trust their judgement or I don’t. So far I’ve trusted my rep even if I haven’t agreed with every decision he’s made along the way. He has hundreds of constituents that obviously don’t all think like me or like him. If you don’t know what rep I’m talking about and you don’t know the source of (one small piece of) his information on this issue, do you honestly feel comfortable throwing him under the bus? I guess that’s why the pool of folks willing to fill that role is small and probably always will be. It’s a thankless job in many ways.

In the end, our society only functions when a small percentage of us are paranoid/pessimistic/untrusting. We can’t all operate that way because we would claw ourselves apart, but I appreciate you filling that role. Keep on that righteous path!

And since you know how they should have ascertained this number, you must have some systemic or corporate knowledge that I don’t have. How was ALPA to deduce the historic percentage of 23M7 payouts going back to spring of 2022? Where does that data live?

His desired outcome being what?

He's the guy you should be asking.