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Originally Posted by RightSide
(Post 4021156)
I wonder if this is just an excuse to blame the economy and slow growth since we are so understaffed? Training and hiring are still full steam ahead.
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Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4021049)
I think we'll get a 3-5% profit sharing payout thanks to the refinery, which is better than the 0 the rest of the industry will get. Depending on how things go United might get ~1%
Thanks to the refinery? Have you heard of the delta AMEX? |
Originally Posted by TOCTOD
(Post 4021158)
Full steam ahead…. For now. If this ceasefire doesn’t pan out, there’s nothing left to bank on. Oil will freeze the airline at attrition replacement only. TBD.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ait-of-hormuz/ |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4021049)
I think we'll get a 3-5% profit sharing payout thanks to the refinery, which is better than the 0 the rest of the industry will get. Depending on how things go United might get ~1%
We just upped our hiring this year to 1700-2200 pilots. The company is “itching” to get a contract done by summer. Hiring + our new contract (if it’s bad, we vote it down so what) will be a significant cost in 2026. Fuel is up. Demand is strong (for now) and when this Hormuz/Iran deal resolves. There will be something else. There always is. For now we have American Express as insurance against black swan events, and macro conditions. Not to mention we just had an operationally not so great Q, with a ton of macro events, and we still did well. Feb 2027 is a long ways away man. Lots of things could happen. Oil could go down, it could go to $180, Jesus could come back and rescue us all, Russia could nuke western Europe, I could win the powerball and be done with this sh** forever. It’s masters weekend. Which means football season is only 5.5 months away. Don’t be such a Debby downer. |
Originally Posted by TegridyFarms
(Post 4021301)
Touch grass man. How TF are you throwing the towel in on the entire year?
We just upped our hiring this year to 1700-2200 pilots. The company is “itching” to get a contract done by summer. Hiring + our new contract (if it’s bad, we vote it down so what) will be a significant cost in 2026. Fuel is up. Demand is strong (for now) and when this Hormuz/Iran deal resolves. There will be something else. There always is. For now we have American Express as insurance against black swan events, and macro conditions. Not to mention we just had an operationally not so great Q, with a ton of macro events, and we still did well. Feb 2027 is a long ways away man. Lots of things could happen. Oil could go down, it could go to $180, Jesus could come back and rescue us all, Russia could nuke western Europe, I could win the powerball and be done with this sh** forever. It’s masters weekend. Which means football season is only 5.5 months away. Don’t be such a Debby downer. Crude Oil is just an input for finished product. A significant amount of the cost of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet A are from the crack spread, which are at record highs right now due to very tight finished product supply from reduced global refining capacity. This market was already very tight before the war, which threw gasoline in a small fire to turn it into an inferno. To make matters worse, Valero's Port Arthur Refinery, one of the largest, most complex refineries in the world, has a huge explosion that significantly reduced its Refining capacity with no timetable for repairs yet. That's just the reality of the situation. You call it being a Debbie Downer, I call it fundamentally understandings how supply chains work and looking at probable outcomes. The outcomes looks rough. Thankfully, due to the Refinery, Delta is best positioned to weather the storm |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4021337)
This is the type of hysterical response that happens when you don't understand the supply chains of oil markets. Oil could go up down, sideways or upside down in a loop. It doesn't matter. Jet A and Diesel will be high for at least the next 12-18 months.
Crude Oil is just an input for finished product. A significant amount of the cost of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet A are from the crack spread, which are at record highs right now due to very tight finished product supply from reduced global refining capacity. This market was already very tight before the war, which threw gasoline in a small fire to turn it into an inferno. To make matters worse, Valero's Port Arthur Refinery, one of the largest, most complex refineries in the world, has a huge explosion that significantly reduced its Refining capacity with no timetable for repairs yet. That's just the reality of the situation. You call it being a Debbie Downer, I call it fundamentally understandings how supply chains work and looking at probable outcomes. The outcomes looks rough. Thankfully, due to the Refinery, Delta is best positioned to weather the storm |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4021337)
This is the type of hysterical response that happens when you don't understand the supply chains of oil markets. Oil could go up down, sideways or upside down in a loop. It doesn't matter. Jet A and Diesel will be high for at least the next 12-18 months.
Crude Oil is just an input for finished product. A significant amount of the cost of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet A are from the crack spread, which are at record highs right now due to very tight finished product supply from reduced global refining capacity. This market was already very tight before the war, which threw gasoline in a small fire to turn it into an inferno. To make matters worse, Valero's Port Arthur Refinery, one of the largest, most complex refineries in the world, has a huge explosion that significantly reduced its Refining capacity with no timetable for repairs yet. That's just the reality of the situation. You call it being a Debbie Downer, I call it fundamentally understandings how supply chains work and looking at probable outcomes. The outcomes looks rough. Thankfully, due to the Refinery, Delta is best positioned to weather the storm Go ahead and re-read it. Don’t forget to weight the “Jesus could come” and “Russia could nuke Western Europe.” 🙄 |
Originally Posted by GutterGuard
(Post 4021338)
Good thing your hysterical predictions are always wrong.
Originally Posted by TegridyFarms
(Post 4021345)
Touch grass. If you think my response is a hysterical response of someone who doesn’t understand supply chain of oil, you’re pretty dense.
Go ahead and re-read it. Don’t forget to weight the “Jesus could come” and “Russia could nuke Western Europe.” 🙄 |
Originally Posted by GutterGuard
(Post 4021338)
Good thing your hysterical predictions are always wrong.
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Originally Posted by Uninteresting
(Post 4021380)
he has to think that way as he’s all in on oil and energy going up. he’s rocket surgeon junior, aka, the gold bug. hope he taxis better, however.
If you want to compare me to him...I appreciate it the compliment. I hope to reach financial independence like he did |
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