do they ever share bad news at DCLC? Because there is going to be a lot of bad news this summer with the current clowns running flops.

that's fine. like I said. subject to change. I was not guessing. Those are the numbers right now for May, trip construction has begun and will continue for another week or so. This is not long term strategic thinking, this week they met and decided to draw some down. This saves them TLV pressure, and fuel costs.

We will see what the final shakes out to be. Not looking for a trophy, Just thought I'd share. It just sucks that we get so little formal communication from our "Leaders" that this is how we find out about stuff.

I picked a bad time to leave the 73!

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...KURUt4Xure5s&s

That’s how I remember my time
on the 73 as well :D

Email is out. Solid quarter but Q2 looking like 45% less profit.

not sure how we boast about being #1 in on time arrivals in March…yet we were prob #1 in domestic cancellations as well.

45% less Profit with a $300m refinery benefit. Imagine what the 2Q numbers will look like for the rest of the industry. Delta might have a 90% share of industry profits in 2Q

"Delta Air Lines soared in premarket trading on a combination of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and stronger-than-expected first-quarter results ..."

Man, that 1970's-like oil crisis didn't last long.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/de...ons-fuel-shock

A5S

Once again, our rising tide lift all boats. United is up 10% while we’re only at 6% and change.

A rising tides lifts all boats and crashing oil prices raise all airlines.

Q1 fuel costs only up 12%/gal jet fuel. Air traffic liability grew from $7.2B to $10.7B yoy. That’s a big jump on advanced bookings.

Do you think Israel is just going to let this end? Boats still aren’t moving. The effect is delayed too. We are months and months from being back to normal. What effect does the $2 billion hit have on our bonus for the year?

In the short term the market is a voting machine. In the long term it's a weighing machine.

The market is hyper focused on crude oil futures when it should be focused on refining capacity. With the massive backlog of crude in the Hormuz combined with tight supply of finished middle distallate products like jet fuel and diesel from reduced global Refinery capacity, prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Delta is well positioned to weather the storm

I think we'll get a 3-5% profit sharing payout thanks to the refinery, which is better than the 0 the rest of the industry will get. Depending on how things go United might get ~1%

5% seems optimistic, but you never know!

so to be clear. You expect the 14 feb 27 profit sharing payout to be max 5%

Hard to forecast with how dynamic things are right now..but I'd bet the under if I had to guess.

Delta also mentioned its cutting growth to 0 this year. What was growth previously forecast to be? I’m curious if anyone else has seen any more details about the cuts.

only Q2 growth to 0

At velvet a few days ago I think it was 3.4% for the year.

I wonder if this is just an excuse to blame the economy and slow growth since we are so understaffed? Training and hiring are still full steam ahead.

Full steam ahead…. For now. If this ceasefire doesn’t pan out, there’s nothing left to bank on. Oil will freeze the airline at attrition replacement only. TBD.

Thanks to the refinery? Have you heard of the delta AMEX?

woof

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ait-of-hormuz/

Touch grass man. How TF are you throwing the towel in on the entire year?

We just upped our hiring this year to 1700-2200 pilots. The company is “itching” to get a contract done by summer. Hiring + our new contract (if it’s bad, we vote it down so what) will be a significant cost in 2026.

Fuel is up. Demand is strong (for now) and when this Hormuz/Iran deal resolves. There will be something else. There always is. For now we have American Express as insurance against black swan events, and macro conditions. Not to mention we just had an operationally not so great Q, with a ton of macro events, and we still did well.

Feb 2027 is a long ways away man. Lots of things could happen. Oil could go down, it could go to $180, Jesus could come back and rescue us all, Russia could nuke western Europe, I could win the powerball and be done with this sh** forever.

It’s masters weekend. Which means football season is only 5.5 months away. Don’t be such a Debby downer.

This is the type of hysterical response that happens when you don't understand the supply chains of oil markets. Oil could go up down, sideways or upside down in a loop. It doesn't matter. Jet A and Diesel will be high for at least the next 12-18 months.

Crude Oil is just an input for finished product. A significant amount of the cost of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet A are from the crack spread, which are at record highs right now due to very tight finished product supply from reduced global refining capacity. This market was already very tight before the war, which threw gasoline in a small fire to turn it into an inferno. To make matters worse, Valero's Port Arthur Refinery, one of the largest, most complex refineries in the world, has a huge explosion that significantly reduced its Refining capacity with no timetable for repairs yet.

That's just the reality of the situation. You call it being a Debbie Downer, I call it fundamentally understandings how supply chains work and looking at probable outcomes. The outcomes looks rough. Thankfully, due to the Refinery, Delta is best positioned to weather the storm

Good thing your hysterical predictions are always wrong.

Touch grass. If you think my response is a hysterical response of someone who doesn’t understand supply chain of oil, you’re pretty dense.

Go ahead and re-read it. Don’t forget to weight the “Jesus could come” and “Russia could nuke Western Europe.” 🙄

Aight we'll see how all this ages over the next several months

he has to think that way as he’s all in on oil and energy going up. he’s rocket surgeon junior, aka, the gold bug. hope he taxis better, however.

Have you seen gold prices recently? That Captain you reference is now a multimillionaire and can decide whenever he wants to go fly a Delta widebody for his side gig.

If you want to compare me to him...I appreciate it the compliment. I hope to reach financial independence like he did

huh? gold has tripled since 201 when he was prognosticating about it going to 50k. s&p? almost 6x.

If we are in trouble, guess what? Others airlines will be in deeper trouble, some might even sense to exist, which is a door opening for future expansion. Maybe Delta is predicting that…we need more pilots and airplanes for future growth.

Since 2001? What numbers are you looking at? Gold has TROUNCED the S&P and it hasn't even been close.

12.4% CAGR for Gold vs 9.2% (including dividends)CAGR for the S&P since Jan 1st 2001

And that's just physical Gold. Gold miners are leveraged to the Gold price so even better, life changing Wealth Building there

Think about it logically too. Last year was 8.9%. This year so far we've put aside less money for PS than this time last year, and that's only with a few weeks of high fuel prices at the end of March. With the price of fuel the way that it is for the near to medium term future our profit margin is going to be severely diminished. Add to that a higher wage base this year, I can easily see PS being 5% or less this year.

2011 since he started his rant. 50k was his target. lol

For that time period the SPY indeed has the advantage, 10.3% CAGR total return to 8.5% for Gold.

Gold is insurance against down markets, not a long term investment. When the market takes a header like the dot com bust, GFC and COVID, cash in the insurance (sell) and buy the market at a discount. A 25% correction in the S&P 500 (5,250) is where to cash in part of the insurance and buy the S&P. At 40% correction (4,200), cash in more of your insurance policy and buy more S&P 500. Over the ensuing years, rebalance by selling S&P and buying insurance. The recent market hasn't hit any of the execution thresholds.

Substituting managed futures contracts for a portion of gold will generate yield while holding the insurance. CTA and DBMF are two worth consideration.

I'm amused by the "all in" attitudes on investments that are balancing mechanisms in a well constructed portfolio. Don't let the dopamine rush kill your portfolio. My technique involves relatively small accounts at Tradestation, Robinhood and Coinbase where I can chase dopamine. The real stuff is at a different institution or a deed recorded at the county away from the thrill of the chase.

I agree on Gold. Gold Miners are a value investor play. Gold Miners trade as if Gold is $3000. Gold recently dipped to $4300. The miners are printing cash and returning it to shareholders thru buybacks or dividends. The value investor gets paid to wait.

For most people indexing/broad ETFs/Bogleheads is the way to go. But if one has a passion for securities analysis, 4th grade level math skills, and calm emotions, they can easily beat market returns by mastering the principles of value investing. If an individual can do good valuation work, the market will reward them. Yes I am "All in". I'm All In on deep value. And I'll go to any sector that I can find it.

On this very forum the hate for Viasat was extreme, while the love for Starlink endless. Hate is one of the easiest ways to make money in the market as Mr. Market drives sentiment to nonsensical levels. Viasat stock was driven below the replacement costs of its assets, because of Starlink airline deal headlines. The lucrative government contracting side of the business was virtually free at $10/sh. Today Viasat is up over 600% from a year ago. Buying Joel Greenblatt style LEAPS resulted in 10x+ returns.

We are blessed with our 18% DC and Brokerage link option that can manage more money than many hedgefund managers start with. Combining that with a value investing strategy can yield incredible wealth.

You're wrong about the PS for Q1 2026 vs 2025. We're $41M ahead right now: $165M vs $124M.

I really don’t think trip’s numbers are far off. Last year we made 6.7B in profit, and had an 8.9% PS check. If the only negative associated with the war/SOH closure is a 2B higher fuel bill leading to 2B lower profit AND our wage base stayed the same, our PS% next year would be 5.7%

if we make 3B less and our wage base grows by 5%, it would be 3.8%