I already know I'm VOTING NO!!!! CONCESSIONARY CONTRACT!!

Should we take your punctuation literally?

I’m a no unless the 787s go to AUS.

When do we start picketing? I at least want a lanyard.

So hats off tomorrow???

Always say no to the first offer! #bigbrainz

In order for it to be a “brilliant move”, they have to have known this leverage would directly (and eventually) translate to an early, large-gain contract would result. Same for the ‘haters’.

They 100% did not.

But better lucky than good…

Honest Question: Does the percentage at which the previous contract pass influence the starting point of new negotiations? Consider our last cycle: When a pilot group votes overwhelmingly in favor for a TA, how does that set up the next cycle of negotiations? Would a vote like that make it more or less challenging for ALPA negotiators to make the case that pilots are demanding changes to that contract language in the next cycle? Seems like they’d walk in and be like, “Our guys voted 90%+ in favor for the previous contract, but let me tell you why it’s a piece of sh*t and we’re demanding changes to it now!” How seriously does Delta take that claim? The way I see it, the Company would be entering new negotiations with a mindset that pilots just got most of what they asked for in the previous contract, therefore why give the pilots two slamdunks in a row?

Any “expedited contract” should come with a Flight ops shakeup and “leaving to pursue other opportunities”. The management style has harmed the Brand, our reliability, our NPS, our QOL, and ultimately our bottom line. Hey Chris H…Delta Pilot BOD member…. Have a conversation with the Board about what’s going on behind the scenes and covered up by passing the buck and denial of reality. The MEC Chair should have the same conversation with Ed.

An old reservist UPT IP of mine said that every General needed some crusty, passed over Major (read: isn't concerned about career advancement) at his side to tell him when something is stupid, a terrible idea, or to give him the reality at the operational level. Sounds like the pilot member of the BOD needs the same.

I HOPE IM WRONG

But I don't think any deal is reached with jet fuel at $200/barrel and poised to go significantly higher. Americans and the market right now are extremely complacent about what's coming if this middle east crisis is not resolved very soon.

It will be the greatest energy crisis of our generation. One for the history books. And we are all sleep walking right into it.

If 20% of the world's Oil, Gas, and Fertilizer supply remains offline a pilot contract will be among the LEAST of our worries.

PREPARE YOURSELVES

one of the thorns in the side of warren buffett for years has been corporate board members not being pit bulls like they should be, but rather lap dogs.

as lucy likes to say, “good grief, charlie brown “

I'm still waiting for the Second Great Depression, bankruptcies and massive furloughs we were promised from the tariffs last year.

Most of the tariffs were cancelled, rolled back or deemed illegal.

While I'm certainly pessimistic about the next year considering what has happened in the last month, I feel like his post is incredibly hysterical

Which generation? Some of the posters here sat in gas lines longer than EV charging times.

Venezuela can match Iran's output in 18 months. Bypass routes for gulf state oil can currently cover 30 percent of the Hormuz volume. We all hear "20% of worlds oil...." but the real impact is smaller due to alternatives. This could be the beginning of a long term reshaping of global energy trade.

yep. It is all a game to control China’s energy source. We have venezuela and don’t rely on hormuz like China does.

Man it must suck to view the world through your lense. What blood pressure meds do they have you on?

This statement shows either a misunderstanding or fundamental lack of knowledge about Oil markets.

Venezuela's oil infrastructure is in a state of generational decay. Peak production was 3.5 million bpd in the late 1990s. Current production is approximately 800k-900k bpd and structurally challenged. The pipelines, separation facilities, and upgraders needed to process Venezuela's extra-heavy Orinoco crude are severely deteriorated. Iran was producing 3.2-3.5 million bpd of easier to process crude.

Venezuela's Orinoco crude is so heavy it requires specialized upgraders to make it refinable. Most of those upgraders are offline or operating at fraction of capacity. Building or restoring upgrader capacity alone takes 3-5 years minimum even with unlimited capital. Venezuela replacing Iran in 18 months is fantasy. 5-7 years at minimum for meaningful incremental production at scale.

Your entire argument is doing what most casual energy analysis does, evaluating the oil volume problem in isolation. The 70% that cannot be bypassed doesn't just disappear into a rounding error. That's 14 million bpd of crude and products with nowhere to go. The LNG omission is the most glaring omission of this argument. Qatar's LNG cannot use any bypass route. There is no East-West LNG pipeline. Every molecule of Qatari LNG goes through Hormuz or doesn't go anywhere.

Lol my thoughts exactly. Too many pilots spend too much of their time glued to the ‘news’ or onto their phones throughout the day and don’t get out enough. He needs to get a hobby or something. Get outside and go for a walk, spend time with loved ones, etc. Too many of us get ourselves all riled up unnecessarily. More and more pilots just need to relax. It’d be great for all of us collectively.

https://youtu.be/i2uu6NF2inY?si=vrEtrEl5B9k2hdbN

Its not just the traffic through Hormuz, Iran has the capacity to wreck the entire region.

The Iranians know a couple of things now that they didn't before, they can't trust America to negotiate in good faith and they have to build a nuclear bomb now, America is an existential threat to them.

yep-dude sounds like the rocket surgeon from a few years ago who convinced many that gold was headed to $50K in a few years as a result of his unique and expert analysis that the rest of the market was missing.

If you're attacking me rather than the thesis, than you either realize how dire the situation is or would just prefer to remain ignorant and dream of sugar plums.


Remember I am frequently criticized on here for being too optimistic. I forecasted Delta's WB fleet expansion years ago albeit I was early. I frequently comment on here about how much of the complaining is trivial for the money we are paid for this fantastic job.

Make no mistake, Delta is by far in the best position to handle this crisis, and Delta pilots are affluent enough to financially withstand the storm that could be coming.

As someone who gladly paid $2000 to St Jude for being too early on Delta WB Captain positions expanding, to 2014 hires, I hope that I am wrong again, but I'm afraid I'm not. Energy, from the shirts that we wear to the fuel in our jets, touches every single part of modern life. And the world is about to be reminded of that.

And you think Qatar is going to just sit there and mope?

Like Goggles said, I'm still waiting for the sky to fall from Tarriff's last year. Ever hear of the Black Swan who cried "WOLF!"

That's not to say there won't be pain from the consequences of this action, but much/most of the country just ain't buying the constant doom and gloom. Media who just need to feed the rage bait for clicks. I mean, CNN is nothing but negative, even with one of the most impressive and overwhelmingly one-sided major military actions in modern history. By this point in Desert Storm, the allies had lost over 30 aircraft to enemy fire. Even in snatching Maduro, CNN (and many others) could not bring themselves to say anything meaningfully positive. I just want some media that is fair, and calls honest balls and strikes. But the current media has abandoned the middle ground.

Qatar's has lost 17% of its production due to damage incurred that will take 3-5 years to repair. UAE and Qatar can't do anything but protect themselves as much as they can and hope for a peace deal.

I agree the Western Media is terrible so I pay them very little attention. I just look at the Energy assets affected and the data. The numbers are UGLY.

Alas everyone in the US thinks energy grows on trees and unicorn urine and are unaware of the pain coming

I really don’t think any media outlet is disputing that we have total military dominance of the skies. But it doesn’t matter how many JDAMS fall on increasingly irrelevant targets. We can’t bomb ourselves to a solution here.

Barring a ground invasion Iran has the ability to close the strait and wreak havoc on major energy infrastructure all over the Middle East, and it’s clear that there is nothing we can do about it. Hence the increasingly desperate and disjointed comms from the administration. Every day the regime survives it puts us in a tighter and tighter bind.

What is the futures contracts for oil deliveries in 6 months? Investors that have skin in the game are betting otherwise.

Again, not saying there won't be paid or consequences. Just that the cries of doom, doom, and black swans are grossly premature (at best).

Again, do you thing Qatar, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are going to just sit and mope while they lose TRILLIONS of petrodollars? (Meanwhile MBS in Saudi is prodding the President to continue to pound Iran. Admittedly, Saudi has different, though overlapping objectives than the US.

Qatar used to play both sides, and did the banking for proxies, and housed thier leaders living in luxury. Think that will continue? I don't.

The futures market doing precisely what futures markets do, pricing the consensus expectation that a disruption is temporary. More critically, the futures market and the physical market have broken apart entirely. Dubai crude used to price Asian oil is currently trading at roughly $37 to $40 per barrel above what futures contracts imply, a gap that was less than a dollar before the conflict. Which market would you trust, the one settling in paper, or the one settling in physical barrels?

Invoking the futures curve as evidence against an energy crisis is like pointing to a weather forecast calling for sun next week as proof that the hurricane currently making landfall is grossly premature. The screen and the physical world are telling two different stories. One of them is getting delivered to refiners at $138 a barrel.

The futures curve is also structurally blind to the nat gas dimension entirely. There is no futures curve pricing the reconstruction timeline of Qatar's North Field. There is no long-dated contract market telling you when the LNG supply growth story the market had priced through 2030 gets restored.

ill give the dude credit. his oil prognostication hobby has him convinced he sees how this is going to end. i suspect as that he’s heavily shorting the likes of united airlines and the cruise industry. i may not be as smart as him, but my family with deep experience and ties across the energy industry and associated markets feel differently. the fact that he made bets about what was going to happen to the upcoming wide body growth makes me wonder if he’s related to kit darby regard the pilot shortage 20 years ago. either way, it’s irrelevant.
one more thing-remember that peak oil argument from 20 years ago? man, those guys sounded very convincing based on their analysis and facts. they seemed to know something the rest of the industry didn’t.

Based on this statement zero chance you have any family with professional working knowledge of the energy market otherwise you would state something more concrete than "feels differently".

I don't short so another swing a miss. I'd tell you to keep trying but I'll save you time and give you my playbook.

I'm long in the following:

BTU and HCC (Coal)
PBF (Oil Refiner)
UNTC MNR CRK (Natural Gas)
UUUU NXE DNN (Uranium)
RIG VAL TDW (Deep water Drillships and OSVs)
AGI BTG ITRG SBSW ( Gold and PGM miners)
EGY TALO KOS (Oil Producers)
ASIX IPI (Fertilizer)

90% Equity 10% 2028 LEAPS

I hope like all the regime apologists that this doesn’t wreck the world economy. But let’s not pretend that if Biden had done this that you all wouldn’t have lost your collective ****. Some of you are incapable of seeing a different perspective.

So what? All that means is the short term uncertainty and disruption is not expected by the market to continue. They are putting their money where their mouth is.

Before the Great Financial Crisis Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) were trading as if the underlying loans were sound. The ratings agencies (Moody's, S&P) had blessed them with investment-grade ratings, and institutional demand was so voracious that spreads were compressed to levels that made no economic sense given the actual loan quality underneath.

Dr. Michael Burry famously shorted them via Credit Default Swaps. Because the market believed these bonds were safe, the CDS premiums Burry paid to insure against default were cheap. He was essentially buying fire insurance on a house that was already smoldering, at rates priced as if there was no fire risk. His downside was capped at the annual premium. His upside was the full notional value of the bonds going to zero.

Just like the MBS buyers were relying on ratings rather than reading the actual loan tapes, oil futures buyers are relying on diplomatic convention and historical mean reversion rather than stress-testing the actual physical infrastructure vulnerabilities. The complexity of global oil routing is the equivalent of the CDO prospectus nobody read.

Be very careful hanging your hat on the positioning of Wall Street traders

No offense, but the last time you posted something like this you changed your tune within 3 days. I would recommend a "wait and see" approach.

A5S

HK doesn't listen to podcasts so......

I’m usually on your side and I agree with you on the contract. But come on, I’m still waiting on Tucker and Kent to be hauled in on charges from the FBI. Any day now…You can’t call out people and then not acknowledge your post history. But yeah, we have the company here and I’m totally in agreement with their strategy and it is exactly as I filled out my contract survey. Get me more pay and more time off. Make it simple and you don’t have to touch 100 parts of the contract.

But how exactly can be dangerous (looking at you optimizer). Be careful how you wish for things.