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Old 05-22-2012, 09:06 PM   #100701  
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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Besides, I enjoyed flying into Flint, Grand Rapids, Traverse City, Lansing, Omaha, Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Grand Forks, Saginaw, Fargo, Minot, Bismark, Regina, Saskatoon, Great Falls, Kalispell, Helena, Bozeman, Missoula, Winnipeg, Des Moines, Rochester (both NY and MN), Duluth, Albany, Harrisburg, and all of those other wonderful, NO HASSLE airports that we used to go to in the DC-9.
FWIW, Comair doesn't bother with those little villages in the 70/90. Well, MDT and ROC sometimes. I miss them too.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:08 PM   #100702  
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:08 PM   #100703  
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... but how aircraft are currently being flown as DCI:

50 seaters (Comair = 16, DCI=???)
65 seaters (Comair = 15, DCI = 102)
76 seaters (Comair = 13, DCI = 153)
Numbers added to your post above.

Comair currently has around 25 50s, reducing to 16 by August.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:15 PM   #100704  
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Best case: LESS TOTAL RJs. That would be this TA. There may be 102 70 seaters ontop of the 223 76 seaters, but they would obviously fly on current 50 seat routes that aren't as profitable. 32 fewer 76 seaters total is better, since they would be the ones flying current mainline routes vs Dothan, AL. It's your choice.
I still think airframe counts beats block hour ratios and seating, but, seating is interesting...



See to me, if all of these jets fly the same speed then the ASM drop is minimal. In exchange for increasing the size of the large RJ fleet by 25% we end up reducing the entire DCI fleet by 25% but changing ASMs by just 17%.

I don't consider this a gain. It's a loss. A gain would've been keeping the 255 cap and 3:1 ratio and cutting 50 seat jets down to 0. And that 0 could've increase a little if the Alaska codeshare had gotten hammered and no exemptions for RAH.

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Originally Posted by NuGuy View Post
Maybe I want to fly to Dothan, AL. If it's a Delta Passenger on a Delta Ticket, I think they deserve Delta Pilots, don't you?

Besides, I enjoyed flying into Flint, Grand Rapids, Traverse City, Lansing, Omaha, Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Grand Forks, Saginaw, Fargo, Minot, Bismark, Regina, Saskatoon, Great Falls, Kalispell, Helena, Bozeman, Missoula, Winnipeg, Des Moines, Rochester (both NY and MN), Duluth, Albany, Harrisburg, and all of those other wonderful, NO HASSLE airports that we used to go to in the DC-9.

Sure beats the hell out of Florida turns from ATL, or going back and forth the NYC.

Nu
Good point.

Last edited by forgot to bid; 05-22-2012 at 09:32 PM.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:22 PM   #100705  
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I still think airframe counts beats block hour ratios and seating, but, seating is interesting...





Good point.

FTB,

Great work.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:31 PM   #100706  
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Here I want to explain the equivalent seating better...

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Old 05-22-2012, 09:45 PM   #100707  
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Here I want to explain the equivalent seating better...


Your asterisk is important. If we get 88 717's, that is 10,296 seats, subtract out the 5830 from DCI, and that leaves 4466 seats remaining to come out of the market (since the deal is capacity neutral). Well, 19 DC9's at 124 seats per is 2,356. Bottom line with this math is that there are another 2,110 seats that need to come out of the market for this 717 deal to be neutral. Wonder which mainline jets those will come from? I don't buy the idea that the 717's are growth aircraft.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:56 PM   #100708  
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I would say there are certain cities, probably lots of them, that only support a partially full 50 seater. When DAL dumps the 50 seaters (and they will, regardless of whether we pass POS2012), they can do one of two things.

A) If it was a mostly full 50 seater, maybe the market will support a 70 seater (No increased mainline flying).

B) if it was a partially full 50 seater, it's probably not worth putting a 70 seater in the route. Drop the market altogether (No increased mainline flying).

That's why I think the 70-76 seaters are so much more dangerous to our jobs. THEY are the jets that replace our flying. Try to ignore the distraction put out by ALPA regarding 50 seaters and overall numbers of RJs. Look at what happens to the number of MAINLINE REPLACEMENT JETS (70-76 seats). That's what we care about.
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Old 05-22-2012, 10:06 PM   #100709  
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Actually, Wall Street being unimpressed means it wasn't a slam dunk on the cost side for the company. That is one of my third party criteria to try and evaluate this TA. Wall Street doesn't care about the pilots, they only care about how much more money (or more productivity) will this cost/save Delta Airlines to evaluate whether DAL will perform going forward as a stock to buy/sell. So Wall Street being "unimpressed" means it's not quite the slam dunk for DAL that most of us think it is.
OK, first let me get the Jim Cramerisms disclosures out of the way. I am NYC based CP on reserve (always have been). 2008 hire with an MBA and I dont own DAL stock in my charitable trust. I haven't even opened the new TA but got info from various posts and the Charimen's Letter. What does this mean, I've been trained to think like mgmt and know what to pick up on in their press releases. I like our current mgmt team as they have openly disclosed their plan since 2008, and have executed it so far with impressive results. I wont pull any punches but tell it as I see it.

Lesson #1: Any Mgmts stated goal since MBA 101 is to maximize shareholder value, taught from day one and reemphasized daily. This means maximize profit by minimizing costs. Pilots are a cost, period.
Lesson #2: Don't take it personal, its just business.

As a newhire in 2008 the differnet mgmt types came down to newhire indoc and gave their outlook for the future of the co. If you knew what to pick-up on the groundwork was being laid out.

At this time, rumors of a merger with NWA were on the street but these folks were hush. But they were saying things like Dal wants a 100 seat aircraft and there was no reasonable a/c on the mkt to buy. Also, Dal is rapidly exapnding overseas but is weak in Asia and the overlap with their system was negligible. Enter NW's DC-9's (temp fix) and the Narita hub. Deal done.

Next RA and mgmt types state in multiple speeches and investor conferences that Dal will win in NY and that HVC's need the total business class experience. That they need the HVC to have the business class experience from Leg one on their journey. Enter the slot swap, terminal build and more 70 seat two class aircraft. And being a frequent USAir commuter into LGA and seeing the RJ operation there, there was no surprise that 90+ % of the flying went to RJ's. Most city pairs do not support mainline aircraft but do have wealthy HVC's coiming into NYC and beyond and want the FC seat. Anyone not see this coming?

Now we have this TA which is immediately backed up by press releases of a 717 lease from SWA and worse of all the pilot group is thrown out as hinging on the deal. If anyone believes that they are ignorant of big business. Mgmt is trying to tell us thru the media that the 88 717's are hingent on this TA passing. But do you really think SWA (and Boeing) would hinge this deal on the vote of a pilot group who took a BK contract? SWA mgmt has made a strategic plan regarding these aircraft and their future 737 orders and is not going to look back. Since we are one year out from rx the first 717's, I'm sure our mgmt guarenteed SWA mgmt that the deal would be done and divestiture of their jets would be per the contract. Dal has a year to get it done. SWA's stock has been hammered in the mkts for deviating from their business model including operating two aircraft types. They will get rid of these jets and DAL will take them on-time. Kicker: DAL loves getting good jets at cheap prices relative to new aircraft. Will they turn away 88 narrowboby jets they've been seeking since 2008 at a inexpensive price? Of course not, it's just business.

What's next? Dal hurried this deal thru to allow time for more negotiations in case the first (or subsequent deals) fail. They will come back to the table to achieve their goals. They are on a timeline that we now know (mid 2013). New JFK terminal and LGA concourse connection also mid 2013. In my opinion vote no and renegotiate. I'm also a fan of DPA, at least to force a vote and scare ALPA into reform. The fact that Moak was a 7ER guy making about $200k a yr at DAL and last year made $500k at ALPA makes me ill.
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Old 05-22-2012, 10:28 PM   #100710  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lumberg View Post
Sure there is a way profit sharing could be above the raises. The only way would be our profit would exceed the $2.5 billion threshold by A LOT. If Delta made $5 billion profit in one year, then the pilots get 20% of the profit, and that could exceed one year's pay bump. It might be doubtful, but it is possible. That's the part many don't recognize here. The profit sharing could be reduced by 1/3 if the profit doesn't exceed $2.5 billion in one year. If it does go over that, then the 1/3 reduction doesn't happen, and the profit take is instead 20%, resulting in a higher profit sharing check than ever before. It would have to be a great year though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigflya View Post
OK, first let me get the Jim Cramerisms disclosures out of the way. I am NYC based CP on reserve (always have been). 2008 hire with an MBA and I dont own DAL stock in my charitable trust. I haven't even opened the new TA but got info from various posts and the Charimen's Letter. What does this mean, I've been trained to think like mgmt and know what to pick up on in their press releases. I like our current mgmt team as they have openly disclosed their plan since 2008, and have executed it so far with impressive results. I wont pull any punches but tell it as I see it.

Lesson #1: Any Mgmts stated goal since MBA 101 is to maximize shareholder value, taught from day one and reemphasized daily. This means maximize profit by minimizing costs. Pilots are a cost, period.
Lesson #2: Don't take it personal, its just business.

As a newhire in 2008 the differnet mgmt types came down to newhire indoc and gave their outlook for the future of the co. If you knew what to pick-up on the groundwork was being laid out.

At this time, rumors of a merger with NWA were on the street but these folks were hush. But they were saying things like Dal wants a 100 seat aircraft and there was no reasonable a/c on the mkt to buy. Also, Dal is rapidly exapnding overseas but is weak in Asia and the overlap with their system was negligible. Enter NW's DC-9's (temp fix) and the Narita hub. Deal done.

Next RA and mgmt types state in multiple speeches and investor conferences that Dal will win in NY and that HVC's need the total business class experience. That they need the HVC to have the business class experience from Leg one on their journey. Enter the slot swap, terminal build and more 70 seat two class aircraft. And being a frequent USAir commuter into LGA and seeing the RJ operation there, there was no surprise that 90+ % of the flying went to RJ's. Most city pairs do not support mainline aircraft but do have wealthy HVC's coiming into NYC and beyond and want the FC seat. Anyone not see this coming?

Now we have this TA which is immediately backed up by press releases of a 717 lease from SWA and worse of all the pilot group is thrown out as hinging on the deal. If anyone believes that they are ignorant of big business. Mgmt is trying to tell us thru the media that the 88 717's are hingent on this TA passing. But do you really think SWA (and Boeing) would hinge this deal on the vote of a pilot group who took a BK contract? SWA mgmt has made a strategic plan regarding these aircraft and their future 737 orders and is not going to look back. Since we are one year out from rx the first 717's, I'm sure our mgmt guarenteed SWA mgmt that the deal would be done and divestiture of their jets would be per the contract. Dal has a year to get it done. SWA's stock has been hammered in the mkts for deviating from their business model including operating two aircraft types. They will get rid of these jets and DAL will take them on-time. Kicker: DAL loves getting good jets at cheap prices relative to new aircraft. Will they turn away 88 narrowboby jets they've been seeking since 2008 at a inexpensive price? Of course not, it's just business.

What's next? Dal hurried this deal thru to allow time for more negotiations in case the first (or subsequent deals) fail. They will come back to the table to achieve their goals. They are on a timeline that we now know (mid 2013). New JFK terminal and LGA concourse connection also mid 2013. In my opinion vote no and renegotiate. I'm also a fan of DPA, at least to force a vote and scare ALPA into reform. The fact that Moak was a 7ER guy making about $200k a yr at DAL and last year made $500k at ALPA makes me ill.
GREAT POST! And good to see someone else is thinking at one in the morning.
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