Airline Pilot Central Forums - Harwood's Ode to FUD

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)

- Delta (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/)

- - Harwood's Ode to FUD (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/88833-harwoods-ode-fud.html)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free Mason (Post 1910820)

This is F.U.D. and this is what is going on in the marketplace:

Consolidated passenger unit revenue (PRASM) for the month of May decreased 5.5 percent year over year, with roughly half of the decline due to foreign exchange pressure and lower surcharges in international markets and the remainder from lower domestic yields. Delta now expects consolidated PRASM for the June quarter to decline approximately 4 to 5 percent, with the change from previous guidance a result of lower-than-expected close-in domestic business yields.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. - Delta Reports Financial and Operating Performance for May 2015

This is the weakness that has gone on since last year. This there is more there, tell me the path with uncertainty in the industry. You did not have this in C12. It was a upward trajectory. This is not. Profits are high, but decreasing.

THIS IS FLAT OUT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make your argument without lies and half-truths.

Delta has an investor conference presentation (june4th) there most current, in which they increase their own guidance for the 2015-2017 year time frame. They increase there guidance in five specific areas
Balance Sheet
Operating Margin
Free Cash flow
ROIC
EPS growth

Delta Air Lines, Inc. - News & Events - Presentations
Click on the presentation on June 4th
Slide nine.
That is YOUR COMPANY forecasting THEIR future

Delta is also forecasting increasing PRASM in the fourth quarter.

D

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilinipilot (Post 1910892)

THIS IS FLAT OUT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make your argument without lies and half-truths.

Then he wouldn't have any argument at all then would he?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free Mason (Post 1910820)

Yields are decreasing. Delta is however paying a premium for fuel because of bad hedging choices. That premium declines as each month goes by and should buffer yield decreases. This is a much better environment then 2012.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 1910817)

Harwood truly is pathetic. I actually feel sorry for him.

Carl

I called it when he pushed his way into the process months ago. That man is poison.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp (Post 1910917)

I called it when he pushed his way into the process months ago. That man is poison.

+1. Get him gone

Quote:

Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp (Post 1910917)

I called it when he pushed his way into the process months ago. That man is poison.

Yup, you did.

Carl

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilinipilot (Post 1910892)

You hit the link? What does it link to? Not fantasy land.

What did DAL do to the hedge loss for the year after Q1?

What did DAL do to guidance for the fall schedule? Why?

What did SWA do a week and a half ago as well?

This link goes to a report generated by none other than your employer after these two items above were already announced. Point is DAL is providing future guidance that is lower than previous estimates. C2012 was the opposite.

Yes their long term guidance for 2015-2017 is up and is always a whole hell of a lot less accurate than the guidance they give for the next two quarters. Doesn't mean its going to hell, just means that the near term guidance is having DAL go against their growth plan that they put in place a few years ago to grow the airline in line with GDP. The airline sector is always a leading indicator. DAL with their leverage levels will fair better than others, but we all play in the same sandbox.

What this means to me, and what the PR newswire states is that half of the softness is Foreign Exchange and the other half is weakness and overcapacity in the domestic and international markets. That is a lot different than what they were saying a few months back. That is the point.

As always, vote it down, and then realize that the softness that they are reporting is real.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free Mason (Post 1910972)

Pure BS Free Mason. The next few years' forecasts by independent analysts are very strong. You tried to make an argument for surrender based on a prediction for the next few months while ignoring subsequent months. You got busted for trying. Why you guys do it is still a mystery.

Carl

MARKET PULSE
Delta Air Lines' stock rallies after analyst gives 4 reasons for an upgrade

Delta Air Lines Inc.'s stock DAL, +1.55% rose 1.7% in afternoon trade Friday, on the heels of an upgrade at Wolfe Research, which cited improving fundamentals and valuations. Analyst Hunter Keay raised his rating to outperform, after being at peer perform about nine months. He set a stock price target at $62, which is 47% above current levels. Keay gave four main reasons for the upgrade:

1) Delta's deal with the pilot union not only removed a headwind, concessions on profit sharing have helped give management a "good guy" image;

2) an apparent acceleration in cash deployment, which lifts the outlook for share buybacks;

3) a move toward domestic capacity cuts, which should improve operating metrics; and

4) concerns that passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) will be weak in the third quarter, before improving in the fourth quarter. "The lack of commentary around 3Q PRASM should be viewed as concerning," Keay wrote in a note to clients. "But we would argue forcefully that's exactly why [Delta's stock is] down here despite the prior three things we listed."

The stock has slumped 14% year to date, compared with an 8.1% decline in the NYSE Arca Airline Index XAL, +1.02% and the S&P 500's SPX, -0.53% 2.6% rise.

#1 should be concerning.

#3 shows that just like in 2012, delta has no interest in its big 50 seat rj fleet or a massive fleet increase at mainline.