Be ready for it, the Sky won't fall
 

Delta Air Lines Inc. (New) (NYSE:DAL), United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:UAL) - UBS Projects 5% PRASM Decline In Q2 | Benzinga

Delta will preannounce Q2 tomorrow, it will disappoint. I will break it down after it's public. Not to worry the fundamentals are good. The timing is intentional. Quarterly statements are often updated later. Watch for expenses outside of the quarter and PRASM hit that is already known.

I'm waiting for the dip to 35 to continue loading up.

This is not investment advice. Dyodd. Ymmv.

Maybe this is why DALPA just reminded us that we can change our vote up until the end of voting. They announce disappointing earnings and we all trip over ourselves to change our vote to yes.

Or is this in response to the DOJ investigation regarding Capacity collusion between the Airlines?

I wouldn't wait. American's Q2 will be eye watering with no hedge. Whatever they make, we will exceed Q2 2016 with no hedge.

Easy 40% to 50% this year.

Investment advice from a pilot. Lol.

Remember they are writing off the balance of the billions they lost on hedging in Q2. Clear sailing going forward.

The pre-announcement timing certainly feels suspicious.

But... If fear-mongering isn't cool, how is artificial-confidence mongering OK?

No fear, because I really don't think Delta is going to stop making profits.

You're right.

Guys, artificial confidence mongering isn't cool either.

We have to come up with something else.

FTB, you got any of those cheap oatmeal cookies that are good for dipping in coffee?

The whole SPY is down and that will retard every stock. Those stocks aren't showing any relative strength against the greater mkt. Might be a good idea to wait until they can at least hold above the 50 day moving avg, before loading up. The yield on the 10 yr Treasury bond is 2.4%, that's acting as a drag on the greater mkt. Stocks rarely just go up on their own, unless it's a windfall.

No. I'm in freak out mode. We have to conserve food. Profits going away. Because PEB.

DAL Analyst Estimates - Delta Air Lines Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch

Check out the sentiment

They all know the numbers coming out.

I should have shorted today but that's tough to do on the west coast. The market closes too early.

Well if the bottom is about to fall out then we really need to stick with C2012.

Work rules are way harder to get back than pay, and pay is the first to fall during concessions. How dumb would we look if we traded PS for pay, then gave up pay, and never got the PS back even when good times returned? Plus going into a down cycle with significant staffing efficiencies that requires fewer pilots.

Still predicting 7-10 billion in profits in 2018.

What? I don't know a single pilot that hasn't been skeptical for oh, I'd say a decade or so. A lost decade. They know now is the right time to hold out for more. Can you build artificial-confidence in a group that is jaded from strikes, furloughs, and excessive years at the regionals (the same decade, see above) or those on their 3rd or more airline?

OK. I'll try. GO GET UM BOYS! (trumpets...) CHARGE!

Those things bring you confidence that you can survive. I remember being humbled by my furlough, and proud of my family's resilience, but it wasn't without a cost. So jaded by furlough? Hardly.

Most of this group has never been permitted to be jaded by a strike, or a lockout. However, we've been anything but jaded by 9/11, LOA46, oil at $140, CH11, 1113, LOA51, the loss of the pension, the gigantic cluster-foque just to get a JCBA agreement the second time around (after losing value through infighting and indecision), and the merger, to the point where everyone knows the economic environment is a bit, well, fickle, and cyclical.

This thread is about pre-dismissing the very second-quarter results no-voters were saying were being deliberately withheld. It's not really a great argument.

I'm not saying the end of the world is near, but don't accuse people of selling fear, while looking at the world through rose-colored crystal balls, and selling "everything will be fine". My bank doesn't accept "everything will be fine" as a form of payment.

Sooooooo the whole point of this is that the company thought they would make a mint over the TA duration but now it will only be "half" a mint?

Denny

No. I have no idea if the company will or will not make a mint, and neither does anyone else here. I'm willing to stipulate Delta will probably be fine, and we're very likely to sit here, and watch billions being sent to the shareholders, +/- $1.1B.

My point was about trying to suppress data that doesn't fit one's personal viewpoint. This thread is about pre-ignoring the pre-announced quarterly results.

Fine, jaded may have been a poor choice of words. How about battle hardened?

Either way heres the facts:

http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_downlo...-June-2015.pdf

Here's the commentary:

http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_downlo...uly-2-2015.pdf

If you prefer not to post the pace of accumulation vs last year and total set aside for profit sharing, I will. I will give you time to review. This is a very healthy company and does not require concessions. It can afford to do better by its pilots.

The point of the thread is to focus on facts and TA language not spin. If this would have been unforeseen the fear-mongering would have been on tilt. Pre-announcements are usually done to soften the blow so I assumed bad news, not bankruptcy bad but disappointing. I had no insider knowledge of what the numbers would be just an educated guess. The company prefers to get the headline by surprising with good news. It turns out the pre-announcement wasn't that bad the softness was accounted for, but it was a tactic. The preparation of the group must stem from my job skills.

I am confused, I thought the forum stated there was a conspiracy to get the vote done before the results. Then they do a preview and the forum states there is a conspiracy to release the results before the vote.

Let me simplify that for you.

It's a conspiracy.

Haha. No conspiracy of course. But timing does matter. The original post is simply to remind pilots not to be alarmed. Ok so instead of 1.8 Billion in operating income this quarter it ended up being 1.7 Billion, for example. Ok yea the company will take a hit. But whatever they report will still be very impressive and not cause to vote yes in some sort of knee jerk panic reaction.

Apply same logic above to RA's latest message in the weekly email. To sum it up, he loves the amicable relationship with pilots but if we vote no, we're dead to him. I guess the honeymoon's over.

Battled-hardened is fine.
I'll stipulate to the fact we're a very healthy company, needing no concessions, that can afford to do better.
And I agree that this needs to be focused on the facts.

We don't really know what the future holds. Some of recent trends are positive, some aren't. The farther out we try to forecast, the more inaccurate we get.

None of which changes the fact that this TA is early, and the normal timeline takes us almost three years from now.

Is that fair?

Btw it is very common for them to do an investor update after releasing June traffic numbers.

Sure. The predictability is less certain the further out in the future. This pay is not significant enough a price for the concessions. This is our opportunity, it may take time. A normal amount of section 6 time. We are early.

The future holds a well executed 3-5 year business plan, The further future has a 5+ year plan. Given the track record of this management there will be success. If you are referring to a catastrophic event, lets cross that bridge when we come to it. The profit sharing is an excellent shock absorber in that case if the company fails to make a profit.

Now thay are pulling pro-con letters out of our V files.

I think more accurately, they are pulling con letters and dissenting opinions.

This is being treating like a no time emergency when we are 6 months early. We are skipping checklists and flying single pilot to a 10 mile final. This is a situation where we need to make some time by voting it down and then expand the team.

Whenever I would get hasty about a purchase my dad would always say "there is no such thing as the last of the good deals". This was pretty common sense simple advice.

I do believe the union has a right to put that material in the v files. Do you have proof of this?

The story as I understand it is the NYC LEC rep at his own expense placed his con letter in every v-file in JFK. (I don't know about LGA). J Van Sickle, executive assistant to MD is alleged to have call JFK ops and requested the Company remove the letter from the v-files.

I wasn't there. I can't confirm any of this. But, that's my understanding of the story.

What I wonder about is why would the Company do what a DAPLA executive assistant requested? My guess is we may be missing a detail or two.

Standing by for incoming.

^^^This is brilliant^^^

+1 Billion!!!!

If the sky is falling then I would rather stay on C2012. Less Concessions than C2015. Plus, as we know, the minute we are in the "sky is flying mode", we will be approached to give up substantial pay and work rules. I would rather fall from 2012 then 2015.

TEN