No denying the cyclical nature of the industry. It's likely we will experience some form of stagnation/shrinkage again, but short of raising the retirement age again the numbers are set.

I think managements everywhere are terrified of simultaneous mass retirements for many years and they will do anything and everything to mitigate it for as long as possible. The all out assault on international relief pilots they are waging with the proposed FTDTs is likely one of many pillars of their stratedgy. Raising the retirement age even more if they can will be another pillar. Look for increased pushes for cabotage, an increased abuse of interlines (to partially "get around" scope, no matter how proportional) and an all out assault on scope clauses themselves. We can bet they do NOT want to pay that kind of training costs which will be unlike anything they've ever seen AND because its happening industry-wide, maybe even have to deal with upwards pressure on labor costs at the same time. Their biggest weapon against us will be them trying to leverage our own greed and myopia. They will dangle some tasty carrots in front of generation retirement (indusry wide) in an attempt to get us to gut our own scope, go along with a masive reduction in relief pilots, etc. Watch for it.

You are correct in the retirement numbers are set..... But, if there is contraction the place you hold on the seniority list may not change by much as a percentage.

I am glad you are optimistic in your future, but if this country's economy doesn't start moving forward at a good clip we may see some changes here. Also all it will take is another successful terrorist attack on an airline and no airlines future will be bright.

Such is the reality of life, not just airlines. This is something everyone has to deal with. It is what it is. :)

2017-2033? That's some long range planning right there!

As for me, I can barely wait for the AE to close on Wednesday (a week later than planned :rolleyes:) let alone looking seven years down the road for appreciable retirement numbers. :)

No, that's just around the corner. :rolleyes:

When someone is 30+ years away from the current mandatory retirement age 7 years is not far away at all. ;)

Now look how many have actually retired so far for 2010 ;) Those numbers above assume WORST case scenario and arent realistic.

That also doesnt consider medical outs or guys getting fired.

Never hope one gets fired, no matter if they are senior or not.

7-23 years is a very long time in this industry. Look at the heavy hitters like Delta, United, NWA and American over the past ten years. American was nearly 13,500 after the TWA merger, now a former TWA 9 CA is a couple percent from the bottom at AA; there are almost 2,000 pilots with the option of recall. Most airlines were hiring when they furloughed.

Over the last ten years, 1999 to 2001 recession, 9-11, SARs, swine flu, Great Recession (2007 to ????), mergers, scope, codeshares, joint ventures, the 50-seat RJ was replaced by two-class 70 seat RJs, Spirit ended up with killer payrates, SWA doubled in size and rose to the top of the payscale, NWA and CAL disappear, Mexico erupts into civil chaos, cash and paid airplanes is king and extremist cells are broken up weekly. Oh and Apple may hit $300 with record sales.

Of all this, DAL is likely in the best position going forward, but even that position with the amount of long-term debt is difficult at best. My hats off to RA and his team, not sure how he did it but he will go down in history with Crandall and Kelleher as being builders and mastering the uncharted waters of deregulation (that's actually regulated).

My congrats to getting hired in these tough times. My only advice is enjoy the job! However, in order to do that you can't be sitting long call in one state with a family in another. If you can't move your family for various reasons, it will be a tough few years to say the least. Your first shot at block holder will likely be in NYC or in ATL on the 9 when it gets there.

The secret in everything you bid and plan on, risk vs gains. IMO, try to avoid seat locks as best you can; something worthwhile may come along in all the movement.