jdebrey

I'm a student at a part 141 school and I have been doing a ton of research on automation in the cockpit, more specifically artificial intelligence.


My question's for the pilot community is this:


1. What advancements will we be seeing implemented in the cockpit at a part 121 carrier in the next 1-10 years... (what technology is already semi close to being done with development/deployment.)

2. When will AI kick out the co-pilot/pilot monitoring in the cockpit. If you don't believe this please articulate your point because I feel this is inevitable in the not so long future (20-30 years my guess)

3. When will 121 carriers try to automate the entire process of flying? I know what you're thinking....

"but the public would never trust a computer to fly us around" I personally believe once we go fully autonomous in the automotive industry and people are accustomed to trusting AI with they're lives to transport them in cars it will change the perspective of the public. (not saying that automotive AI and aviation AI are at all same level of complexity, but I do think public opinion will change)


I know I'm asking you all to whip out your crystal ball, but I think it's a conversation this community should discuss. Plus it would be great to hear from some guys that have been are currently in the aviation industry.


Thanks your all your opinions.


- John

NEDude

I am amazed at the human need to make ourselves obsolete.

But, I do think it is more than 20-30 years off. Why do I think that? Because completely replacing the need for humans in the cockpit will require a whole myriad of things that are historically slow to occur.

First of all it will require either new aircraft or a massive re-design of current flight decks. In the past 35 years, Boeing has developed and introduced exactly two new designs since the 767 arrived in 1982. Not too long ago the CEO of Boeing said it was on the verge of getting too costly to develop new aircraft. So do not expect new designs to be coming off the drawing board very rapidly.

The second thing that has to happen is a major change in regulations. Even minor changes can require several years of planning before implementation. A major change to allow automated airliners will require major cooperation among political parties, domestic regulatory agencies and global regulatory agencies. I have a hard time seeing that moving at a rapid pace.

I do think it will happen eventually. But I think the 25-30 year timeframe is a bit soon. I remember reading an article back in junior high school in the early 1980s that predicted we would all having flying cars in our garage 17 years ago.

ShyGuy

People can't drive worth crap. Most non-alcohol accidents involve distractions, inattentiveness, carelessness, and/or aggressive/reckless actions. Throw in some for weather, but again, a slower/cautious speed would do wonders to reduce those accidents too. An autopilot car doesn't have the complexity of the human mind, so it won't be distracted or do stupid things that humans tend to do all the time that cause crashes. If pilots flew like how the average person drives, there'd be a lot more dead people. Thankfully that's not the case, and aviation today in America is safer than ever before.

trip

You should get out of the 141 school and into programming/coding ASAP.

Master of FiFi

After the flying with the Captain that I flew with last week, who insisted on turning off all forms of guidance and automation, even when it was required, and hand flying, while alternating between staring out the window, and digging through his bag for nothing, completely ignoring the instruments, you better hope that there is never less than two people in a cockpit of a plane moving under its own power.

Besides the venting, I don't think there will ever be less than two people. There are several airliners every year that divert for one pilot being incapacitated, ie heart attack, and that alone should prevent the removal of a second pilot. Should...

jcountry

It's gonna be a while:

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017...y-bot-drowned/

AI is currently is 'parlor trick' stage. Gonna take many decades before it replaces our job.

Vincent Chase

Seriously? Sure people can't drive worth crap, especially if you're used to flying 6-9 miles a minute with a wingman 5-1500 feet from you as you do it on NVGs and what not.

I'd take these people who can't drive worth crap over a computer that has shown the ability to be hacked at the drop of a hat sharing my roadspace.

Imagine some guy with the ability to crash an automated car on all the bridges in NYC. Or at all choke points in any major city.

Automation will bring on worse problems than habitual drunks or teens texting.

Now put this into an aviation perspective. How about hacking a widebody and holding it hostage? I know I'll never fly on a fully automated plane.

And before you all start screaming, "airbus is fly by wire" I'll throw this out. I don't fly that.

CBreezy

This is a little tinfoil hat for me. I can't wait for all highway driving to be required to use auto-drive. Traffic jams will be a thing of the past.

Poser765

I don't know how realistic a threat to self driving cars hacking is. The cars are pretty much a closed system, i believe. So short of plugging in a thumb drive with hacked software, how can one cause your traffic jam on the Brooklyn Bridge?

Emmerson Bigs

Probably should pick one spot and make your post.
The Future Of Artificial Intelligence