Closing Date
 

Anyone wanna make guesses on the shutdown date?

I'll take Q1 2023

I have $20 on y'all need to stop being so dramatic.

Shrinkage? Sure. Closing? The only way that happens is if Delta decides to cede NYC to AmeriBlue. Delta can replace us in every other base, because every other base that we operate in is easy. However, they have no one else who can do NYC like 9E can - not even mainline. That's not a boast, either. That's just stats.

How are they going to shrink if everyone keeps “waiting to see” what they offer. The more you stay and wait, the less pilots openings AA WO will have. By the time you decide to leave Endeavor, there will be no openings. You do realize they have had THOUSANDS of applications already. Every 1500 CFI has applied too.

There is no way they are shutting us down. “mainline” can’t even handle the flying they got , Republic and Skywest as well. The only thing that could throw a wrench in anything is if the Delta pilots go on strike , which Pete probably would not allow that to happen . I was around for the 98’ NW strike. Everything was shut down for about 3 weeks or so . Free vacation . So much of the DCI flying has to be done by Union represented pilots .

We'll see. The question is how much/how fast can we shrink before the line operation completely falls apart? I don't think they want to shut us down, but if they can no longer rely on us to cover the schedule that calculus might change...

This ship is unsinkable, said the captain of the Titanic.

I believe after Titanic he went on to a long career based in MSP flying the avro

Hate to break it to you gramps but the world has changed since 98'. Like most FOs were born for starters. In this industry anything can change. Look at a lot of places we once overnighted now operated by mainline. To say we will never shutdown is a guarantee no one can make

9E shutdown? Not a chance. Not gonna happen. Sorry.

Delta has some sort of trigger point such as not being able to fully staff the 900's after first parking the 200's. Once the trigger occurs a new round of pilot incentives will be rolled out. It may take the form of mainline pay equality, but you have flow to Delta when your number is up or go back to current pay. Such a program will also have a sunset date.

A seniority number at Delta would fix attrition but money seems to be the preferred incentive.

Enjoy the free meals in the meantime. Small but nice perk. 9E management is working with what they have been given.

Oh, and if things aren't happening fast enough for you, leave. Many already have and many more will. Of all the votes you could cast that's the one that matters the most.

I think several other regionals will shut down or merge by then. Don’t think Endeavor. May shrink. May get stapled. May not. Hard to say.

Hehe, you all don't realize how close we were to shutting down at the end of 2014 and projected into 2015. Will they let you shut down now? IDK anymore. I would have thought youd have 2x the attrition, but if its anything like 2014, rate of attrition will increase % and # wise the smaller the list gets. The only thing slowing down attrition now is probably that management isnt actively telling you to leave, and giving free classes on resumes and interview strategies.

So, for a non-EDV guy, is this some new crisis, existential threat, announcement or catastrophe? Or just business as usual and it's the normal Friday "we're all doomed" thread.

No this is new..well at least in the last month. Has a lot to do with what AA WO did. Attrition in June was the most I've seen since I've been here (2019) and unless something gets done soon to match it then July's attrition will be a new high. Since we started hiring after the pandemic we are still negative pilots.

Aren't all regionals doomed?

Endeavor 2022 pilot attrition

January 1st, 2022: 1,996 pilots
June 21st, 2022: 2,004 pilots

Net gain: 8 pilots

Attrition numbers by month
January: 57 gone
February: 55 gone
March: 52 gone
April: 44 gone
May: 71 gone
June: 75 gone

The CEO said himself that the airline is going to shrink. Whether they let the airline bleed out is yet to be seen. Endeavor is the biggest gamble out there right now and they are not doing anything to change that. The best bet is to leave if you can or not come here in the first place.

Most of the pilots who left Endeavor in June made the decision to leave many months ago. We won’t see the full effect of the AA deal for another month or more. Expect record levels of attrition in the August/September time frame. By then it will be too late for the company to turn things around…

For context it’s been stated before that 60 new hires a month is the maximum training can stand. That number might have increased in the last few months but I’m not certain.

They are going to wind up sending the simulators to Kingman along with the aircraft they can staff.

That 2004 from June 27 doesn't include the 74 that left this month. So it's actually a net loss.

Yup. July is when we will definitely feel the effects of the AA deals.

I have never been called gramps before 😂😂. But you are correct, there is no guarantee. However they need us more than you think . We are actually covering some flying for Skypest and Republic and mainline can’t even handle what they got . We cover thousands of flights . How do you figure on them shutting us down ?Unless the Board of directors wants to just sell Delta off and split it in half (which I highly doubt) .

200s say so long. They sacrifice frequency to some markets in exchange for bigger planes. Some 900s become flown by mainline pilots

Your own CEO stated Endeavor intentionally takes on less flying than they can handle, then covers flying for another carrier if they can’t handle a few flights.

That’s like you running 2 laps in a Relay Race while everyone else runs 5 laps then bragging about “covering” for an extra lap. LOL

Sounds like you guys tried to compete with the big boys these past few months by running 5 laps. Sounds like it didn’t go well…. Raises a lot of questions whether you can actually be an efficient airline if you ask me.

Delta doesn’t need you, they NEED more A220’s to replace the 900 routes so you guys can replace your 200 routes with the 900.

We shall see . I don’t know who is gonna fly all these A220’s and they aren’t gonna fly hundreds or thousands of flights with 50 to 60 people on board . The 220 took over the long routes the 900 did but we do hundreds and thousands of flights weekly that are less than 500 miles with 50 to 60 people on board . Even if they payed us 30 to 50 dollars more an hour they are still going to make money on those routes with the RJ 7/9’s . They don’t want to cancel and combine too many flight segments from cities because then you alienate your bread and butter customers to other airlines . You don’t want to lose revenue or take away too many flight options for customers. But we shall see soon I guess .

That's a prepandemic mindset. The business travelers aren't there. Look at load factor. The industry is running high load factors. The philosophy seems to be quantity over quality. The day will come soon when it'll make more sense to bring planes in house and not pay high rates to regional pilots and run 2 airlines

This is what I said last fall and I got stones hurled at me. More and more are coming around. Most 76 seat flying will be done by the majors. Those in the current regional model will be just a small portion.

Only if the business class comes back, otherwise itll just be big jets going back and forth.

Stop trying to run an airline. It's not your job. You fly planes. Log your hours and be ready for your next job.
It will come faster than you think.

The 76 seaters would fly to the same places with the same seat configuration, with the same passengers. Your statement does not follow.

I agree . The 70/76/85 seat Jets were all flown by the Majors from 1980 to the late 90’s . The 70/76 seaters will be flown by the majors again , very soon . It’s nothing new to the majors . They were just able to force the regional pay down when they farmed all that flying to the regionals . That’s all coming full circle now . They will bring that flying back in house along with all of us . They would still need all of us to fly those planes and merge us in however they agreed or if it came down to it , how a judge rules . Mainline doesn’t even have enough pilots to fly what they got . So it definitely will be a win for us .

It comes down to one simple fact. Pilots should leave here for better career opportunities that are available right now. Pilots should not come here for the same reason. That should not change until this place has better options and those options are put in writing. Not a promise or a prediction of things to come. Don’t fall into that trap, waiting and seeing, well things might get better here. That’s where you get s screwed. Put your applications out there now and be aggressive. It’s not going to get better then this.

Correct me if I'm wrong but 70/76 seat flying at mainline is not being discussed at any of the big three in this latest round of contract negotiations?

You are correct. It is only being discussed by psycho regional pilots fantasizing of being mainline pilots. Kinda like those SkyWest Pilots that wear “United” lanyards.

I feel it’s reasonable to think it’s being considered, but a lot of the people chanting “staple staple staple” fail to consider the enormous (potentially insurmountable) amount of work that would have to be accomplished to make it happen.

edit: grammar

projection:if there were a Shut down Q4 2026, but could be unlikely and way to early for those projections. Also, more likely that pilots get stapled to DL and flight attendants are guaranteed face to face with no restrictions to get the face-to-face. As dl won’t merge endeavor fas cuz that would push a afa union vote .

Lots of factors @ play. If sky-west and republic were not hurting for pilots also , then yes, the shut down could happen. Right now , quick answer is no. Delta is still freaking out about pilots TBNT to endeavor and thus , Delta for a “career path”. People are saying no to the high school all-star and homecoming king , and that just doesn’t happen, but it did, and they have no clue how to handle it .

DG gave skywest 1/2 the country(the west) to operate for DL with no overlap and no cushion. Delta is contracted with skywest and republic and the source I have said, that delta is just waiting for republic and skywest to come to them and say ,they can’t handle the amount of flying they are doing due to crews. Until that time, nothing is going to be done here at endeavor, except try to ditch the 200. At least with skywest , you can read their 8-k and sec forms , which could give a little bit of a heads up . We know everytime skw gets a new 175, they, skw, has to give an atmosphere 900 to edv , where are they on that delivery? who knows.

Edv is out of captains by the fall and already people are being extended on the 200 with a minimum of 10-15 pairing changes during a 4day, in atl ,which is not typical. But in 2022 , it’s the new normal unfortunately.

good luck out there fam !

Right now, a staple couldn't happen until Delta is fully staffed, which is a year or more from now. Giving the captains a number, in exchange for signing a flow commitment, is probably where this is headed.

That has already happened.

Humm , may I ask , when did Skywest or republic go to delta ??

Cause of 10q (5-22-2022 ) of skywest hints at is only
the 200 has a terminable agreement .
united it’s 120days
delta it’s 30-days

***SkyWest Airlines has a capacity purchase agreement with Delta to place 16 E175 aircraft into service. The delivery dates for the 16 new E175 aircraft are currently scheduled for 2022.

***Salaries, wages and benefits. The $80.2 million, or 36.5%, increase in salaries, wages and benefits was due to increased costs to retain aviation professionals and increased direct labor costs resulting from the higher number of flights we operated during the three months ended March 31, 2022, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2021.


The risk skywest says is
covid-19, fuel , inflation , interest rate . No where mention pilot shortage or they can’t handle their agreements which this means parking planes and giving back flying to Delta.

Republic well , it’s BB, and Jesus will save them , so , they good . :cool::(

I don’t know the logistics behind a staple, but why does Delta have to be fully staffed?