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Did we really lose 57,000 A&p last year

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Did we really lose 57,000 A&p last year

Old 04-12-2017, 10:48 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
If you really are a working
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active.
If? No, I am a long-time working mechanic and pilot.

Recently? No, not recently. The rule came into place in 2008, and mechanics were given until 2013.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted.
How would the FAA know if a mechanic were a "working mechanic?" The FAA doesn't track "working mechanics," and has no way to know if a mechanic is working, or if a mechanic certificate holder is utilizing his or her mechanic certificate.

I work frequently with a mechanic who has been a practicing, active working mechanic for many years. He does not presently hold a mechanic certificate. He does excellent work, and excels at sheet metal. He does good engine work, electrical, hydraulic, and is a great troubleshooter. He doesn't require a mechanic certificate presently, and doesn't hold one, though he has in the past and is very active. He won't show up on your statistics.

I've worked with many mechanics in repair stations who did not hold airframe or powerplant ratings, yet were full time, working mechanics. No way for the FAA to count them, either. Non-rated mechanics are not uncommon in repair stations. Or hangars or shops.

You seem to make the assumption that those who obtained a plastic certificate were working as mechanics, which is a ridiculous assumption.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house.
Now you're counting only airlines? That's one segment of aviation. Just one.

You've got statistics on pilot and mechanic numbers at any given airline?

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago.
You're basing your incorrect, unequivocal statements on local observations? You're aware that there are new facilities in some places, while others fall into disuse?


Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it.
Both statements are untrue. Many obtain mechanic certification with no intention of every working professionally as an aircraft mechanic.

A number of people obtain the ATP without needing it or without intending to go on to fly in a role requiring the ATP. Some do it for the challenge. Some do it to add on another rating to their existing rating. I know quite a few people who hold mechanic certificates with the intent of doing no more than working on their own aircraft, and I know many who obtained mechanic certification prior to leaving the military and who do not work in aviation maintenance.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply.
No, it really doesn't. I certainly have no trouble obtaining maintenance work, because there is plenty.

I do maintenance not only because it provides income, but also because I like doing it. If I didn't, I wouldn't do it. It's fun. Go figure.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.
I hold five FAA certificates. I use them. Sue me.
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:56 PM
  #12  
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OK, so they're not counting the current plastic certificates which are the only ones legal to use? Instead they are counting original issues that are no longer valid? Maybe so, it is the government after all. It is a little eye opening that in one year 18% of the population either died or lost their certificate, this is possible as well. It think this trend would alarm anyone who owned or operated an aircraft.
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Old 04-13-2017, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
OK, so they're not counting the current plastic certificates which are the only ones legal to use? Instead they are counting original issues that are no longer valid? Maybe so, it is the government after all.
You're not stupid enough to think that the FAA is running around counting pieces of plastic in people's wallets, are you?

The FAA doesn't need to do that, you see. They issued the damn certificates. They have computer records to count the number of certificated mechanics.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
It is a little eye opening that in one year 18% of the population either died or lost their certificate, this is possible as well.
You have no idea what accounts for the differences in the numbers. You're far too busy jumping to conclusions and making non sequitur inferences and illogical and ill informed false statements to worry about the actual reason.

Apparently it's very important to you, though one would be hard pressed to tell, given your diversions into unsubstantiated theories and outright false statements.

There have been cases in the past few years of mechanic certificates that were invalidated when the FAA investigated the entity that was facilitating the certification. There are those who surrender their certificates, quit, die, or have them revoked through certificate action. It may be that the FAA simply did some housecleaning in their records. Who knows? Who cares?

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
It think this trend would alarm anyone who owned or operated an aircraft.
You've waffled repeatedly on the subject, most recently asserting that there are too many mechanics. Now you postulate that the lower number of mechanics, while still far too high for you, is cause for alarm. Flip-flop. Flip-flop. Back peddle, and flip again.
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Old 04-13-2017, 08:16 PM
  #14  
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I i have waffled on perspectives but not facts. There is an over supply of mechanics as evidenced by every metric I can find. This is good for owner/operators but bad for mechanics. A decreasing supply trend will at some point reverse this dynamic.
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Old 04-14-2017, 04:31 AM
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Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
I i have waffled on perspectives but not facts. There is an over supply of mechanics as evidenced by every metric I can find. This is good for owner/operators but bad for mechanics. A decreasing supply trend will at some point reverse this dynamic.
You have waffled on everything, and presented "perspective" as fact. Your statements are false.

You stated that:
A&P's vanished. This is false. It's not possible.
There is a mechanic "oversupply." This has never been the case.
The FAA is counting plastic certificates. The FAA has no need.
Airlines have not hired mechanics in 17 years. Very false.
Most heavy maintenance has left the country. False.
Large disparity of pro pilots vs. mechanics at airlines...(American, for example) has the largest base of approx 13,000 pilots, yet approx 11,000 mechanics and related, 11,000 pilots at United, 9,000 mechanics, etc)
Wages are flat for mechanics (Last year, United mechanics rejected a contract proposal of a 25% increase in wage plus bonuses; they knew they could do better)
Some kind of relationship exists between the number of pilots and mechanics. Patently false.
18% of the mechanic population has died or lost their certificate. Unsupported and false.
The FAA required plastic certificates recently. The requirement went out in 2008. It's 2017 now.
Plastic certificates were to protect social security numbers. Very false.
Plastic certificates were introduced to count the number of working mechanics. False and ridiculous.
And so on.

Do you waffle on about this material simply to be controversial, or are you really this poorly informed?
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Old 04-14-2017, 11:22 AM
  #16  
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I hope I die before I get old!
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Old 04-14-2017, 01:58 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
I hope I die before I get old!
Do it in silence.

Originally Posted by kevbo View Post
This message is hidden because Kevbo is on your ignore list.
Troll-be-gone. It works.
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Old 04-15-2017, 07:22 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by JohnBurke View Post
This is an increase of 43,000.
How is going from 317,000 to 260,000 an increase?
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:09 PM
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The airline that I work for is always has jobs for A&P's on the job postings. Its a far cry from the 90's when jobs were scarce. Today they hire them right out of school and still have a tough time filling the slots. Newer airplanes require less maintenance, however airlines are buying airframes at a high rate.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Rama View Post
The airline that I work for is always has jobs for A&P's on the job postings. Its a far cry from the 90's when jobs were scarce. Today they hire them right out of school and still have a tough time filling the slots. Newer airplanes require less maintenance, however airlines are buying airframes at a high rate.
I know, they try to hire them right out of school but don't pay enough to attract even the poor kids that become mechanics.
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