Did we really lose 57,000 A&p last year
#4
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
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Your thread title states that 57,000 A&P's have vanished.
How is a number of 260,000 certificated aircraft mechanics an "oversupply?"
#5
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Posts: 516
Most likely the FAA is now counting the new plastic certificates instead of original issues. Many mechanics are inactive but still being counted. My oversupply theory is based on the old traditional number of mechanics per airframe and mechanic to pilot ratio. 260,000 is twice the number needed to cover the work. Also factor most heavy maintenance has left the country and new airframes have lighter maintenance schedules. Airlines have not hired new mechanics in 17yrs, they simply don't need very many anymore. I am happy to see the official numbers falling, maybe someday A&Ps can gain some pricing power or at least get their careers back.
#8
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#9
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Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,008
So far as the number of mechanics per airframe, given the massive disparity between aircraft types and the hours needed to support those various types, it's impossible to draw a correlation between the number of airframes and the number of mechanics per airframe. Some airframes may require large teams to maintain, others may have one mechanic maintaining several aircraft.
The number of pilots is irrelevant, and has no relationship whatsoever to the number of mechanics, or to the need for mechanics. There is no valid correlation to mechanic requirement based on the number of pilots. Moreover, given the large disparity in pilot types and functions, you'd have to be a lot more specific, and were you more specific, it would still have no bearing on a number of needed mechanics.
Your assertion that most heavy maintenance has left the country is untrue, and you have not qualified it by aircraft type or type of operation.
You're all over the place, posting contradictory numbers, stating that there's a decrease, throwing out numbers which show an increase, and making assertions that you can't back up.
Many pilots are mechanics. I spent my day working in a shop where all but two mechanics were pilots, each a working commercial pilot. Of those two mechanics, one is completing a private pilot, the other hoping to start on his pilot certification soon.
Many mechanics hold certificates but don't do maintenance for a living, just as many pilots don't fly for a living. While pilots have multiple levels of certification from private to ATP, mechanics don't.
To attempt to suggest that a raw number of mechanics is an "oversupply" based on the number of pilots, number of airframes, or some other metric, is absurd.
There is no pilot shortage. There is no mechanic oversupply.
I continue to do maintenance just as I've done for decades, including heavy maintenance and everything from hydraulics to sheet metal to powerplant work on large and small radials, turboprops, and turbojet aircraft. I am a full time pilot. So far as maintenance goes, I have more work available than I could possibly take on, and more in the offering, and presently additional requests for maintenance that I can't fill due to my own time constraints. I see plenty of work for mechanics.
You cited 57,000 missing mechanics. Support your assertion.
#10
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Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 516
That's easy, go to WWW.FAA.GOV and see table 14 in civil airman statistics. Compare all years, you can see that they reported 317,000 for 2015 and 260,000 for 2016. Is that not a decrease of 57,000? If you really are a working
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active. A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted. Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago. There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house. No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it. Compare those numbers, yep, over twice as many A&Ps than ATPs. The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply. Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active. A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted. Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago. There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house. No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it. Compare those numbers, yep, over twice as many A&Ps than ATPs. The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply. Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.
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