kevbo

According to the FAAs civil airman statistics, approximately 57,000 A&Ps vanished.

JohnBurke

In the last 50 years? Ten minutes? Seconds?

kevbo

They reported 317,000 in 2015 and 260,000 in 2016. If the numbers are true, there is still a massive oversupply.

JohnBurke

This is an increase of 43,000.

Your thread title states that 57,000 A&P's have vanished.

How is a number of 260,000 certificated aircraft mechanics an "oversupply?"

kevbo

Most likely the FAA is now counting the new plastic certificates instead of original issues. Many mechanics are inactive but still being counted. My oversupply theory is based on the old traditional number of mechanics per airframe and mechanic to pilot ratio. 260,000 is twice the number needed to cover the work. Also factor most heavy maintenance has left the country and new airframes have lighter maintenance schedules. Airlines have not hired new mechanics in 17yrs, they simply don't need very many anymore. I am happy to see the official numbers falling, maybe someday A&Ps can gain some pricing power or at least get their careers back.

tomgoodman

They were abducted by an alien press gang. Saucers need maintenance too.

atpcliff

The Pilot Shortage is really bad, and getting a lot worse. The shortage of engineers (mechs) to fix the airplanes, is much, much worse than the shortage of pilots.

kevbo

Oh how I wish it were true.

JohnBurke

The FAA need only note how many certificates are presently issued, that have not been suspended, surrendered, or revoked, and which do not pertain to known deceased.

Oversupply theory? You opened the thread with a title which states that 57,000 A&P's have been "lost." You failed to support this assertion, and instead claimed an increase of 43,000 mechanics, and went on to backtrack and state that there is an "oversupply."

So far as the number of mechanics per airframe, given the massive disparity between aircraft types and the hours needed to support those various types, it's impossible to draw a correlation between the number of airframes and the number of mechanics per airframe. Some airframes may require large teams to maintain, others may have one mechanic maintaining several aircraft.

The number of pilots is irrelevant, and has no relationship whatsoever to the number of mechanics, or to the need for mechanics. There is no valid correlation to mechanic requirement based on the number of pilots. Moreover, given the large disparity in pilot types and functions, you'd have to be a lot more specific, and were you more specific, it would still have no bearing on a number of needed mechanics.

Considerable heavy maintenance continues to be done in the USA. Mechanics perform work other than heavy maintenance, and whether the work is done domestically or abroad, the number of airframes upon which you base your "oversupply theory" remains the same, whether those US registered aircraft fly outside the US or not.

Your assertion that most heavy maintenance has left the country is untrue, and you have not qualified it by aircraft type or type of operation.

What a fanciful and wildly idiotic thing to say. You're actually going to attempt to assert that the newest maintenance hires at any airline have been on the job for 17 years? Completely untrue.

You're happy to see the numbers falling? You just provided numbers showing an increase of 43,000.

You're all over the place, posting contradictory numbers, stating that there's a decrease, throwing out numbers which show an increase, and making assertions that you can't back up.

Many pilots are mechanics. I spent my day working in a shop where all but two mechanics were pilots, each a working commercial pilot. Of those two mechanics, one is completing a private pilot, the other hoping to start on his pilot certification soon.

Many mechanics hold certificates but don't do maintenance for a living, just as many pilots don't fly for a living. While pilots have multiple levels of certification from private to ATP, mechanics don't.

To attempt to suggest that a raw number of mechanics is an "oversupply" based on the number of pilots, number of airframes, or some other metric, is absurd.

There is no pilot shortage. There is no mechanic oversupply.

I continue to do maintenance just as I've done for decades, including heavy maintenance and everything from hydraulics to sheet metal to powerplant work on large and small radials, turboprops, and turbojet aircraft. I am a full time pilot. So far as maintenance goes, I have more work available than I could possibly take on, and more in the offering, and presently additional requests for maintenance that I can't fill due to my own time constraints. I see plenty of work for mechanics.

You cited 57,000 missing mechanics. Support your assertion.

kevbo

That's easy, go to WWW.FAA.GOV and see table 14 in civil airman statistics. Compare all years, you can see that they reported 317,000 for 2015 and 260,000 for 2016. Is that not a decrease of 57,000? If you really are a working
mechanic, you know that the FAA recently required us to apply for a new plastic certificate for security of our SSN and so they could track who is active. A significant drop would be expected if only working mechanics are suddenly being counted. Im sure others have noticed the big empty hangars around Dallas. I counted 19 empty bays that were full a decade ago. There have always been more pro pilots than mechanics at any airline, even when all MX was performed in house. No one becomes a mechanic for fun anymore than anyone would get an ATP rating just for the hell of it. Compare those numbers, yep, over twice as many A&Ps than ATPs. The fact that wages are still flat for A&Ps indicate a condition of oversupply. Johnburke, you are a busy man. You seem to have more knowledge and experience than most guys could accumulate in three lifetimes.