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Is it possible pilots will be replaced ?

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Is it possible pilots will be replaced ?

Old 01-06-2016, 05:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Stets656 View Post
Will computers replace pilots in the next 30 years? Or will single pilot cockpits become a thing? Just wondering.
Simple answer: NO.

Definitely not in 30 years.
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Old 01-06-2016, 06:42 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by SkyHigh View Post
This summer Tesla Motors is selling a model that holds the ability to be the first driver less car. All it needs is a software update to provide the capacity.

Modern regional airline pilots do not commonly have a broad experience base to draw upon. In the past it took thousands of hours of crop dusting, night cargo, and part 135 jobs before one reached an airline. In place of experience and ability pilots are checklist and flow chart driven procedure regurgitating automatons that are largely powered by rote memorization. In effect a heavily technology supported organic computer.

Commonly the weak link in the system is the organic matter that lies between the flight computer and controls. In a short time the public will become comfortable with self driving cars. The next thing to go will be the effective input of a pilot in air travel, replaced by artificial intelligence and ground control. Their purpose will be to serve as a last line of defense should all else fail. As with the cop who goes a career never having to draw his gun so the pilot could go their entire career never actually hand flying a plane.

In cruse they can put on an apron and help the cabin crew serve the passengers. It is only a matter of time.

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Ability and reality are two far different things. Many things have to be worked out in the software area. The logic of the cars computer has to determine who is to die in some cases. Aircraft will be no different and will take far longer than cars.

Why Self-Driving Cars Must Be Programmed to Kill | MIT Technology Review
Self-Driving Cars Get a Code of Ethics | MIT Technology Review
Should a Driverless Car Decide Who Lives or Dies? - Bloomberg Business
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Old 01-08-2016, 02:01 PM
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Airlines will be the last to adopt pilotless aircraft. I think there will be a human up there to monitor the computer for the next several decades. After that....pilots will be relics of the past.
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Old 01-14-2016, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Stets656 View Post
Will computers replace pilots in the next 30 years? Or will single pilot cockpits become a thing? Just wondering.
They've been success in remotely flying large commercial aircraft, (for T&E purposes), for a few decades now.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y33N0raKZBo

When you look at reliability of a UAS and you remove the human error, (and tighten up the operational parameters), the UAV programs are pretty reliable vs. traditional manned flt. I believe that the main reason that there is push-back is that the FAA is still afraid of gravity vs. a UAS during an uncontrollable mishap.

IMHO if you restrict a UAS to certain Airways in unpopulated/less populated areas you'll limit the FAA's concerns of (if and when) an unrecoverable mishap occurs the A/C is returning uncontrolled in an mostly unpredictable location.

Most of the mishaps that I have seen have been attributed to human error, (more frequently during the beginning of the UAS Programs), but UAS' safety has improved due to more flt time, policy reviews and the evolution of newer technologies.

It still makes me laugh when I see the UAS Crews still wearing Nomex flt suits in a secure environment.

But I guess either you can never be too prepared for a in-flight fire, or the UAS Crews just had a visit from the 0-4 Fire Marshal Bill Flt Safety Officer looking for fire hazards near the Ops Positions.
https://youtu.be/PlLPogmB8M8

Just a friendly jab at my friends who still play with video games ("using" the UAS) and do a pretty good job at it.
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Old 01-16-2016, 07:40 PM
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No need to invest in a new infrastructure when they can simply change the rules for pilot certification in order to reduce costs.
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:06 AM
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Originally Posted by geosync View Post
Airlines will be the last to adopt pilotless aircraft. I think there will be a human up there to monitor the computer for the next several decades. After that....pilots will be relics of the past.
Vastly over-simplified.

There are some very big hurdles...

Assume the technology exists to do it safely...it already does, assuming you can exert a reliable external human control in cases where complex grey-area decisions must be made. The usual example is being boxed in and forced to fly through thunderstorms...interpreting radar is more art than science.

Cost:
- Cost of all the redundancy.
- Cost of backup ground-based control.
- Cost of TOTAL revamp of ATC enroute system.
- Cost of revamp of terminal approach systems.
- Cost of ground-handling systems.

Cultural:
- Responsibility: This is the biggy. Ultimately the pilot is to responsible if something goes wrong. With automated airliners, *somebody* has to accept that responsibility BEFORE the plane is allowed to leave. Who will that be? And that person or persons will be extremely anal and reluctant to dispatch unless everything is perfect. The greatest value of the pilot to the industry is probably as the scapegoat.
- Government Responsibility: Even bigger, the FAA has to certify such a system is safe. No protocols exist to do that. How do you even get them to agree on the protocols, much less actually certify an automated airliner to fly. Congress could force the issue if there was enough incentive but there probably wouldn't be.
- Fear of Unknown: Will enough of the public buy tickets initially? Half of them are already afraid to fly. Eventually they would get used to it but initially this would be a barrier to economic success.

Chicken vs. Egg: In order for this to happen the government needs to authorize it and update their infrastructure, the airframers to to design and build the planes, and the airlines need to buy. Who's going to spend the money first? No one will make the investment unless they KNOW the other parties are on board.

Government? Several hundred billion $ (look at nextgen costs) just to put 80,000 pilots out of work so the AIRLINES can make more money? And incur a lot of risk in the process. Nope, not government.

Airframers? Not going to spend money on something unless they know someone will buy it. And don't kid yourself, this is not going to be an add-on box to existing airplanes. Additional redundancy will need to be built in from the beginning.

Airlines? They are not going to commit to something for which operating regulations and infrastructure do not yet exist. They would benefit in the long run, but they take a VERY short-term financial view and managers are not going to invest vast sums in something which reap rewards in 50 years. They'd use it if existed, but they're not going to fund it up front.
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Old 01-18-2016, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Government? Several hundred billion $ (look at nextgen costs) just to put 80,000 pilots out of work so the AIRLINES can make more money? And incur a lot of risk in the process. Nope, not government.
I'm not too sure it's that impossible.

NAFTA sure did something similar to the American Steel and Auto Industries sending U.S. jobs overseas while, at the same time, eliminating U.S. import tariffs.
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Old 01-19-2016, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by NotPart91 View Post
I'm not too sure it's that impossible.

NAFTA sure did something similar to the American Steel and Auto Industries sending U.S. jobs overseas while, at the same time, eliminating U.S. import tariffs.
They might do it as part of a much broader context, such a complete revamp of the ATC and aviation system in the US.

The problem is that you have to overcome a lot of regulatory and cultural obstacles, which can clearly be done IF there's a potential for great benefit. But what's the benefit? Not safety by any means...to achieve safety with automation equivalent to what we have to today would probably be impossibly expensive (or impossible in the near term).

The FAA, by mandate, CANNOT accept a regulatory change which reduces current safety levels. So Congress would have to order them to to do so, and that's obviously not a popular election year platform!

Even so that's not absolutely impossible, US airlines are statistically very safe so if the public was offered an 80% reduction in airfares they might give up one statistical decimal point. But crew costs are about 25% of total costs so knowing that automation is always going to be at least a little more expensive than non-automated hardware the best you could get is maybe a 20% fare reduction (not even that really since the airlines will pocket as much of the savings as they can).

Also if you're looking to trade a little safety for big fare reductions, beware! The airlines would ultimately make out like bandits, but not so much the public. If you greatly reduce the cost of flying, then more people will fly! But guess what our national aviation infrastructure is getting near capacity (especially the big hubs) so once it's maxed out fares will shoot right back up as travelers essentially have to outbid each other for seats. But the airlines still enjoy the lower cost of automation$$$
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Old 01-22-2018, 07:16 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Stets656 View Post
Will computers replace pilots in the next 30 years? Or will single pilot cockpits become a thing? Just wondering.
No one knows. These types of changes tend to happen non-linear so it is hard to predict when the change will happen.

If you mean pilots in the cockpit replaced by pilots in a ground station I think the answer is yes in the next 30yrs. If you mean completely autonomous without and aviation expert in the loop I think the answer is no.

10 years ago I was flying ISR overseas and it was common to have unmanned and manned aircraft in the same airspace stack. Watch for the change to happen 1st in the military where the pax can be ordered to get on the plane. Once it is proven successful there, it will make it's way to the civil side.

Never underestimate the public's willingness to accept risk as long as it is $10 cheaper. Offer all passengers free beer and internet on the flight and you could fill up a pilot-less aircraft even today
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Old 01-26-2018, 08:30 PM
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I don't see insurance carriers going for it any time in the near future. If they do, that $10 fare savings will cost the airline a heck of a lot more in premiums.
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