time to flow to AA - quicker in future ?
 

I am hearing that the AA "hiring floodgates" haven't even started yet. Reportedly in 2-3 years, AA is going to be in dire straights due to retirements.

With that said, will this result in a quicker Envoy flow to AA ? Aka from the current 5.5 years to a lesser amount of years ?

Especially if AA hands are "tied" due to contractual stuff and the required number of Envoy bodies in each new hire class ?

I don't see how flow speed cannot increase, of course I could be missing something.

Thank you

The current group of flows can be metered to 25/month. Envoy, according to Ric Wilson (the man in charge), will never send more than this contractual minimum.

So it doesn't matter how large the classes at AA become, ENY will still only send the minimum required.

Can Ric be overruled by Doug Parker ? "Send us more bodies" etc ?

Ric's comment should be taken in context. Management is likely metering because their business strategy is to pursue growth...they want a bigger piece of the AA regional pie. Actually, my guess is that they want to return to the glory days of American Eagle, Inc with 95-100% of AA feed. Realistic or not...this is their company. They are paid and receive bonuses based on the performance, size, and growth of Envoy. Giving away more pilots to AA directly contradicts that plan. Should Envoy ever stagnate (too many pilots on property), or Envoy executives are ordered to move more pilots to AA, then you will probably see the flow increase. It can increase. It's just that giving away pilots doesn't fit the current model.

To the OP...flow is likely higher than 5.5 years for a new hire today. There are people on property projected to flow in 5.5 years, but I believe they started a years or so ago when class sizes were smaller.

Thanks to both posters above. Good info.

This is correct. The guys hired a year ago hit it just right. Flow projections for someone hired today is 7 years.

AA floodgates opening doesn't mean a thing for you as an Envoy pilot. Amr needs you to fly their reginal feed, they have no interest in bringing you over any day sooner than they have to. What really matters for you is the flood gates opening at the other places....

American Airlines I'm sure still has plenty of applications on file. AA finding pilots for mainline won't be a problem anytime soon. Training might get backlogged a bit, but that is minor in the long term.

The problem AA WILL have is finding pilots in the long term for their regionals. Just as we told them in bankruptcy, they have needed to throw money and the promise of flow at pilots to get them in the door.

AAG will have a decision to make. When the supply of new hires slows applying to AAG regionals, they will either need to increase contractual flow to lower the flow time, or make the regionals the only way to get to AA eventually, (or both) if they want to keep the regionals operating. With its CS series order, to some extent Delta has already signaled they believe the regionals will shrink.

Until apps at the WO's starts to drop off, nothing will change.

At the Same Rate of Flow
 

Going from memory. The 824 group has just/is just finishing flowing.

The first of the Protected Pilots was hired in 2001. That means that person is flowing in 2017-2001= 16 years.

At the contractual minimum rate of flow, the Protected Pilots will finish flowing the end of 2019. This assumes no PP gets hired as OTS at AA or any other major (not a good assumption, but a conservative one).

There is a large gap in hiring for several years after 9/11/2001. Very few have DOH during that period.

The last of the PP flows has a DOH of 2011. That is projected to be in 2019, meaning the last person is projected to flow in 2019-2011= 8 years.

The sales job claim for new hires is 6 years. Could be, but even if it stays at 8 years, that is great compared to those who flowed over the last few years at age 50+.

Of course, all this is subject to no major external force that rocks the industry. It also assumes no major OTS hiring increase. (The first always is a possibility that would increase flow times. The second is very likely, given the retirement ramp ups at the 6 majors, as well as potential growth by them and demand for expats by foreign careers. These would all serve to decrease flow times.)

TransWorld summed it up very nicely and is pretty on track to what I have been thinking/hearing. At the end of the day, barring any outside disaster, this is great time to be in the industry.

One thing I wish more people would consider though is that AA isn't the end all be all, or in some cases not even the best final destination. There are so many options out there that pilots will take, all of which will affect the flow rate.

Some will choose the LLC route which will hire and fairly low numbers and start making six figures now. Others will hold out for AA, many will go to another major once the gates open.

We still haven't gotten to the point that the majors are desperate for pilots as they have lots of resumes on file and lots of senior guys/gals to get through. However, this won't last and I predict the times will really start to come down towards the end of 2019 beginning of 2020.

Don't get tunnel vision on AA and its flow unless that is all you ever want to do. If so, thats cool, just understand the safest bet is that flow rates will come down to right around 5-6 years.

The 10,000 apps and each major right now are the same people waiting in line to be called. And whoever calls first they would be crazy not to go including FedEx and UPS. 6 majors divided by 10,000 apps is 1,700 pilots per major. Even 20,000 apps in the pool does even touch the need for pilots at a major in the future years ahead.

And don't forget. AA already asked for more Envoy pilots. Envoy said no.

The numbers I ran the other day showed that every current regional pilot could be at a major by 2025 just from retirements.

My Crystal Ball
 

I agree. With a few updated numbers from the rumor mill. What I have heard most frequently:

A few years ago, before the significant hiring at the majors started to kick in, all the majors had 10,000 - 13,000 unique applications on file.

Today AA has 3,000 - 7,000 applications.

Today SW has 3,000 applications. One would assume these are mostly duplicates of what AA has.

Have not heard any specific data points for Delta nor United. One post here said 'they had more that the 10,000 apps from a few years ago.' I have to discount that, I would be willing to bet they are more in line with AA and SW numbers.

There are 20,000 regional pilots. If one assumes the oft quoted 10% lifers, that means 18,000 would be candidates to hire, once they get sufficient hours, etc.

This year the 6 majors (including FedEx and UPS) plan to hire 4,000 pilots. Military hires have been running 1,000 per year. That means they will need to hire 3,000 from the regionals, etc.

If someone from is hired from other paths, the hiring will still need to backfill 3,000 a year into regionals, etc.

Right now there are some former pilots who got out of flying after 9/11/2001 that have other jobs. A number of those are starting to get back into flying. Soon, that well will run dry.

Further, if retirement age goes to 67, this hiring wave may shift to the right by something a bit less than 2 years. It does not go away. It does not get smaller.

As the hiring ramps up to 7,000 a year, with a continued hiring of 1,000 from the military; that means 6,000 from civilian sources. If, as a SWAG, 1,000 come from non regionals, that means hiring at regionals will be 5,000 per year.

18,000/5,000 = 3.6 years average, say 4 years. That would mean 2 years FO and 2 years CA. Or, some amount of shrinkage of regional pilots headcount, if regionals cannot keep up bringing people in.

In crystal ball land, a disaster like a repeat 9/11, growth at majors, internationals hiring expats, etc. etc. could have an effect.

Bottom line, regionals will feel an impossible situation trying to keep up, in just a few years. The majors will have to decide how they respond to keep seats in which their customers may fly.

50s get parked, and replaced with fewer 76s per day to a destination. 76s replaced with 100-120 seat planes just now starting deliveries. Some will be replaced with 737/A320s where this can be economical.

To get pilots, some of the larger regionals flying likely will need to be brought back into the majors to fly. Current pay for these planes at the majors range from 65%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s.

My crystal ball says 65% will be too low. Pay at the majors will settle out at 80%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s. Regionals will go out of business and mergers will take place. My projection is half. Regionals will have a lot fewer than 20,000 pilots by 2025. Regionals pay, while not the amount the majors pay, will not be too far behind, even for the much fewer 50 seat planes they will fly. At that point, my crystal ball turns foggy. I am below minimums and must divert to the alternate airport.

Wild Earth Shattering idea but what kind of QOL/"future" would a senior Captain have at Envoy. Lets say he wants to remain the last man standing. Pay/QOL etc

Good point. Some elect to be a lifer. Reasons may be quality of life, domiciles, position, age, etc.

Let's take the age, for example. Someone age 60 may very well stay for quality of life. Weekends off, prime vacation times, best everything. Going to a major as a FO they will retire as a FO with only moderately good schedules.

On the other hand, say someone who flows to AA at age 30 - 35 years will get on an escalator.

In 10 years, more than half of those above them will retire. (Sliceback has done excellent analysis of this in the major AA subforum and a thread of AA vs SW outside of the subforum.) In less than 10 years they will be a CA or a senior FO with weekend off, etc. In a few years more than a decade, they can hold a CA on a Group 4 pay aircraft (767/777/etc).

Big hirings are going to go on for quite a few years. Even some of the recently hired FO are 50+, so will continue the bow wave even further.

The choice for someone at 30-35 would be to stay as a regional senior CA for qol or take a hit for a few years, make double+ as a CA on a major, and spend 20 years of their career with a great qol on a narrow body as a senior CA or flying a G4 aircraft across the small or large pond as a CA, with associated great qol.

It all depends on a person's personal situation. A lot of factors come into play. Everyone has to make their own decision. And, as is always said, you will know for sure if you made the right decision the day after you retire. :)

I appreciate the great info so far. situation:

Age 50 at time of retirement from federal job, non-mil. I will retire in 5 years from now. Hopefully this is in the middle of the "dire straights" that AA is rumored to be facing due to mandatory retirements (year 2022). Unfortunately SWA is kinda going gangbusters now. Not sure if they will taper off.

Most entire career has been flying the King Air 350. 'nuff said. Will have federal pension with federal health care benefits in retirement. Pension will be approx $60K net, annually. No major debt (yes, home mortgage) and personal financial situation is fine. Any job with $50K annual salary after taxes will result in same income or possibly slight pay raise, in total cash to the bank, over my present full-time job.

Observation: To obtain "retiree pass benefits" at AA, one must have 10 years of service. Unless I missed something. This indeed is a goal as I have family all over the freaking country and will have two kids in college possibly on different coasts.

4 year degree, partial MBA completed (1/2 way thru) from an accredited university with a physical campus, Check Airman, Safety, etc experience. "Target" is AA and SWA, both Dallas HQ since I leave in the Dallas area. Loose medical, etc I can answer phones M-F at HQ.

6500 TT, 2500 Turbine PIC presently. TT Time not higher due to numerous "staff jobs" and expected "desk duties" when you work for Uncle Sam.

Gameplan is apply to Envoy, AA, SWA, and "do time" at Envoy while my app sits at AA and SWA. Worst case, i flow to AA via Envoy at age 55ish and do the next ten at AA. Better case, I get picked up after 2 years of 121 time and then AA or SWA. Ideal, super best case is I roll from this gig direct to AA or SWA but I recognize that may not be possible.

Have about 3 Captains at AA and SWA each who advised they will submit LOR's/try to help me, once I get closer to retirement. Everybody else has this too, so....

I have some back-up skills in my pocket to include project management, IT, data analysis (those visual presentations involving scatter plots and heat maps) that I can hopefully pay the rent with in the event nobody calls me and I need to eat.

Thank you again. Comments, ideas always welcome

** AARP applicant LOL

time to flow to AA - quicker in future ?
 

Not sure where you're getting 16 years for the flow? I flew with a PP CA this week who will go into the pool next month and he's been here 10 years.

*EDIT: MEC blast states most junior pilot selected is a 7/05 hire. Putting the flow at roughly 12 years +/- 1 month.*

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Sorry but the flow is only slowing down at Envoy. The flow doesn't get faster. It gets slower. I don't get why people think the flow will increase when it is clearly designed to slow down. 7-8 years will be your flow rate. This isn't counting attrition, AA not hiring in Dec or acts of Congress or God.

I clearly understand that the regional airlines are going to go through major changes in the next 2-5 years. I'm not smart enough to predict it. I am smart enough to do some division and multiplication and find out your flow rate will be slightly more trending to slightly less than 1% each month. Don't expect to flow to AA via Envoy and get flight benefits before retirement. Unless we get stapled to the bottom of AA which is more likely to happen than five year flow for you.

I stand corrected. I looked it up. First Protected Pilot was 8/2004 hire date. The 2001 hire date I recalled was at the end of 2016, still part of the tail end of the 824 group.

So few hires during the 'lost decade' after 9/11/2001, that by the 2nd month this has advanced 11 months, the 7/2005 hire date will go into the pool.

Thanks for the correction.

Not that it's ideal but you could also get AA retirement flight benefits from envoy.

Yes this was alluding to earlier. Thanks for all the info posted so far.

Are the projected flow dates on the ALPA site of any value or BS? My number shows a flow date of 7/22. That would be 6.5 years from hire.

It seems semi-accurate. It takes into account the contractual minimum flow rate. It does not take into account attrition, nor does it take into account no classes in December or the historically slow summer hiring. So there are some inaccuracies. The further out your flow date is, the greater the possible error.

It's a lot more accurate than any salesman that tries to claim a 5 year flow still exists for someone hired today. It's based on flowing the contractual minimum number of pilots per month. It's about as accurate as anyone can be.

Any check CA Buckets date? Curious to see how far his pushed back.

Hire date of 11/7/16 and it's 5.6 years. I didn't see any at 5 years.

5.34 is the lowest I saw. March 2016. It stays low for a few months then begins to creep back up. Current new hire is looking at 7.37. Source: seniority list on ALPA site.

April 2017 hire, Dec 2023 flow according to ALPA website.

That checks out. Scroll further down and you'll see the time increase to the 7.37 years for someone hired in the last class.

I just flew with an FO who had contact with AA HR recently.

He was told in 2007, AA had 13,000 qualified applicants on file.
Now, in 2017, AA has 3,000 qualified applicants on file.

I am not drinking the koolaid or anything, but these numbers are based solely on sending 25 a month. It doesn't account for demand rising over the next few years or those leaving for other companies. I see the ALPA list as more of a worst case scenario in terms of the metering. Obviously world events and the like can change this.

I think the ALPA list does take into account normal attrition but I do agree with you to some extent. I just don't think we're going to see 'normal' in the next few years. There are a lot of guys coming into these new hire classes that are a lot older than usual for new hire regional classes and they're coming with significant aviation background beyond just CFI. I just don't see these kind of guys sitting around 6, 7, 8 years or whatever waiting on flow if United, Delta, FedEx, etc, would offer them a job at year 2 or 3 (or even American via off the street). So, yeah, they can meter. But I don't think it's really going to help them with staffing.

Two things:
1. The list does not take into account attrition, you are correct.
2. The list also does not take into account the fact that AA doesn't run classes in December and sometimes smaller classes in the summer.

I think flow will be on the shorter side of what is predicted by the union because of exactly what you said, but I also think that it's disingenuous for company mouthpieces to predict such a wildly different number when attrition is such an unknown variable.

Has American ever not slowed hiring in the summer. I'm serious. Let's look at the previous 5 years.

Have they slowed hiring this summer? At some point (very soon) the retirements at AA start happening so fast, they aren't going to be able to afford to slow down hiring, in the summer or in December.

time to flow to AA - quicker in future ?
 

+1 on disingenuous company mouthpieces /mouthing-feces / some throwing up metabolic waste.

Well, the July 11th class at AA had 41 new hires, and the upcoming July 25th class is projected to 42, for a total of 83 new hires this month. That's not a slowdown.

This is true, but they hired a lot less in June.

A year or more ago the ALPA spreadsheet had me flowing about 4 or 5 months quicker than I will actually end up going. If RW's numbers had been true each of the past 2 Januarys I would have already been at AA for a while, instead I have quite a ways to go.