Envoy Flow at 12 Years
 

I got news that the last person select for flow was hired in 2005. That is 12 year or more flow. What about these recruiter here who say the flow is 5 or 6 years?

Lol. Seriously??? Ok. I'll explain it. I'm bored in training right now. No one is saying 5-6 year flow right now except maybe a add that is still floating around out there. And the 5-6 year flow are for the people hired between 2014-summer 2016ish. Pilots in that time frame will have the shortest flow. The recruiting department isn't even pushing a 6year flow.

I know. Projections right?

Thanks for the heads up, I won't apply in 2005 now.

That's probably about the average time it takes to get to a Major, if one is able to score a job offer at a major. The average is probably beginning to get shorter.

This guy gets it.
Rondon isn't the sharpest tool but he still is a tool.

That is good as 2005 is 12 years ago now. Do you say there is 6 year flow to American airlines now?

The 2005 flows will go to 2011 flows in about 2 years (when the Protected Pilots finish flowing). Why? How can 6 years of hires flow in 2 just years?

Simple answer. They are a part of the 'lost decade' when there were very few hires. So there are not many pilots hired in those years to flow.

As I have said on other threads, just a few years ago, pilots were flowing with 25+ years at a regional (most Envoy/Eagle, some with other regionals then Envoy). Why? Because up until a few years ago, AA was hiring few pilots. Heck, until 2016 they still had TWA pilots on furlow.

My how things have changed. That change is going to accelerate over the next few years, even more because retirements are increasing at the majors.

Yes. Projections and simple math. Both of which you apparently have no idea how to do.

For someone on the lower end of the intelligence scale like yourself, let me give you a crash course here. Simply take the amount of flows each month and divide them with the amount on the seniority list and voila, there is your projected flow date. This is where you come up where you stand in the flow, i.e. 5 years from date of hire or 5 years and 9 months from date of hire, etc.

LOL only if it was that simple!!! First off you have to find the seniority number of the person to last flow and subtract it from the number of the last protected pilot and divide that by 30 and then divide that by 11 and then you get the number of months and set it aside. Then you subtract the first non protected pilot seniority number to the last seniority number of the pilot who was on property when the new contract was signed. Take that number and divide by 15 and then divide by 11 and set that number aside with the other number you set aside. Then take the seniority number of the first pilot hired after the new contract and subtract it from your seniority number. Take that number and divide it by 20ish and divide that number by 11. Unless AA hires less than 880 pilots that year then take the number of AA pilots hired and divide by 4. Take that number and divide by 12 and then take that number and divide by the number of pilots in your group. Once you get the last number grab it and put it with the other two numbers you set aside and add them together to get the total months to flow.

NOT so simple.

Well obviously you're just trolling again.

At least we know rondon doesn't actually believe his own posts, but it seems like you do. Is this how you came up with your 40/mo promise?

Little do most dont know but the 5 year flow is in the past now. With the current state a new hire won't flow in 5. Not even 6. So why keep selling this? Fake news.


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I'd beg to differ. I'd say most know this. I would say however, is that little do the forum company salesmen acknowledge this inconvenient bit of information. It's pretty common knowledge that projected flow for someone hired today is already around the 8 year mark and rising with every large new hire class that starts.

Sorry, that was meant for any prospective pilot. Anyone who is on the seniority list already has access to this information. My statement still stands.


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Are people typically waiting it out or is there a consistent percent of guys getting hired on elsewhere like Delta or United etc? Do the numbers reflect that or do they assume every pilot will wait for the flow?

Right now, attrition to other airlines is extremely low. The numbers are based on every pilot flowing. I would expect attrition to the other 2 legacies to increase over the next few years when the retirements really start getting out of control.

Do you think attrition to other airlines is low because other airlines just aren't hiring like crazy at the moment or b/c Envoy is WO by AA and they rather go pick others for whatever reason right now?

While there was the occasional FO hired for the most part the last few years you needed a lot of PIC hours to get hired at Delta or United. By the time you reached that many Captain hours here you were close enough to flow that you stopped trying so hard for the other big two, especially since AA is in a slightly earlier stage of their hiring wave than the others. This has been my experience along with others around my seniority. Obviously some have been hired, but a lot of us didn't become really competitive until we were closer to flowing and then gave up. Of course this trend will probably change.

It's still very competitive to get on with one of the 3 legacies. I think more guys would be willing to leave to go to places like Spirit, Jet Blue, Frontier, etc. if there wasn't a flow. But I think a lot of guys would rather just wait it out for the chance to flow to a legacy instead of jumping somewhere else and giving up their flow.

United has also slowed their hiring to nearly a halt the second half of this year, so that's not helping matters.

Sorry to state it so bluntly but how long would it then take a new hire say starting today or the beginning of next month to flow then? I'd do the math myself but I don't have access to seniority numbers and who flowed when

That's really hard to predict. If nobody left and everyone waited to flow, then a new hire would flow in 8 years. Attrition should pick up once the hiring at the legacies increase over the next few years. That would obviously bring that number down from 8 years. It's hard to guess what attrition will be like though.

If you want an exact date right now, you might as well consult the psychic hotline, because you'll probably get a better answer than you will from anyone here. There are way too many factors to give you an accurate timeline. As the previous poster said, if everyone stayed, it would be 8 years. Same thing if the contractual min/max flowed every month (right now 25/month - number decreases after the Oct. 2011 hires, and decreases further down the line). The problem is, there are too many unforeseen factors, such as attrition levels, and how often AA cancels/postpones classes for whatever reason, as they did for September and October.

All the above being said, you really should heed the advice that's been repeated many times on this forum: the flow should be your plan B. Given the quick upgrade times that we have right now, getting enough PIC time to meet the minimums at a legacy carrier should take less than 4 years to achieve. Then, annoy the **** out of them enough until one of them picks you up. If you are one of the many (like myself) that get ignored by the legacies year after year, THEN use the flow to get to AA. If you do nothing but count on the flow to get you there, you're going to drive yourself to the point of insanity.

Gotcha thanks, yea I was just thrown off guard by the 12 year statement and I totally feel the plan B flow deal as well.

Yes, the guys who are currently flowing have been here 12 years. That number will continue to drop for about the next 4-5 years. Around 2021ish at the current rate, the flow time will bottom out around the 5 year mark for those guys who hit the timing perfect and got hired early summer last year. It won't be long before the flow time starts to creep back up at that point.

Think of it this way: 12 years ago, we had a 12 year flow, we just didn't know it then. We will find out what today's flow is in 7-9 years, or whenever it happens.

When guy and gals in college ask about time to majors, I say if you have your hours to get hired by a regional shortly after you graduate college, you have a good likelihood of going to a major by about age 30.

Until just a few years ago a lot of folks age 50 were still waiting to get that call.

That is about as close as I am going to say.

A couple of years one way or the other, while we debate here, is a small difference compared to where the industry has been.