DEC Base transfer times
 

So on the new handout advertising the direct entry captain program now at Envoy, they are stating reserve time in LGA will be less then 3 months. Also they are advertising base transfer times after training to ORD at 3 month, MIA 6 months, and DFW 12 months.

Curious if you all think this is possible or not. Supposedly these numbers are backed up by data at the moment.

Reserve in LGA will be a lot longer than 3 months and base transfer to DFW will be a lot longer than 12 months. Pretty sure on those two unless something drastic changes. I’m less familiar with ORD and MIA but I’d be willing bet that those two numbers are outright lies too.

DEC Base transfer times
 

If the projections of 130 lines by may is accurate. The calculation for reserve is probably not as far off as you might think.


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I'm an fo in training now, but there are 4 Direct entry captains in my class. One of the guys teaching indoc indicated that it would be 6-12 months to hold mia as a captain. They are pretty vague about projections (understandably).

I just had another look at the seniority numbers in DECS for each seat in each base. I don’t know what the date of hire is for those seniority numbers but I can say I was hired well over 12 months ago and make some comparisons. I’m not senior enough to hold CA MIA, CA ORD, or CA DFW. I am senior enough to hold CA LGA. Now, I understand that things change such that things that have happend or are happening now don’t always correlate directly to what is going to happen BUT given the large number of FOs hired over the last couple years will be reaching upgrade qualifications soon AND they will be senior to the direct entry captains, that it’s far more likely that seniority will play out worse for these direct entry captains than it would for me. THAT’s why I say something drastic needs to happen for those projections to be right.

Very good points. You could hold ORD CA. A (summer 17)1900 seniority number got ORD CA on the last bid. He just hasn't finished training yet. I think their most accurate predictions are going to be base transfer to ORD and holding a line in LGA. Three months to hold a line in LGA may be a bit of a stretch. I'd guess it's more likely to range from three to six months.

I really don't see anyone holding DFW as a DEC for more than two years. We had so many older guys coming here just to get DFW 175 and once they get the upgrade then they will be pushing for a DFW base. Unfortunately I see people getting DFW and then getting kicked out of DFW just like it has happened this last vacancy.

I have heard of Fall of 17 hires getting ORD captain. So I buy the 3 month base transfer after training at the moment.

I’m curious though how the 16 and 17 new hires upgrading will change things. Or if there will be enough attrition off the top to make up for it.

Forgot to mention that it looks like I’d still be on reserve if I was a CA in LGA right now when I look at the reseve list (perhaps the guys senior to me are bidding reserve on purpose but I don’t think so). Only way I see the direct entry captains coming off reserve in less than a year would be if there really is this sudden expansion to the number of lines in LGA such that there are more lines (or nearly more lines) than CAs there (it happened to FOs in ORD last summer so it’s possible) or perhaps a new base opening that creates the same situation. But even that would be temporary. The direct entry captains will need captains junior to them to really move off reserve and base transfer. The vast majority of the new captains over the next 2 years will be senior to them.

True. But, in regards to LGA line holding, the vast majority are also not planning to stay in NY.

They’ll be in NY until their seniority will allow them to base transfer which is also part of the discussion above. They’ll need a normal flow of captains junior to them for that to happen. Instead the normal flow of new captains will be mostly senior to them for about 2 years. They’ll gain seniorty due to other direct entry captain hires after them but movement will be much slower than it has been or will be for the rest of us for approximately the next 2 years.

Well...yeah. That’s part of the equation when taking a DEC position at any airline in the world. It just seems odd posting warnings about something that is inherently built into the position these folks are accepting. Are you worried that they might think their seniority progression will be rapid for the first couple of years??

The folks I know considering this are stagnating at their current shop (I even know pilots at corporate/fractionals that many here might like to work for seriously considering this deal since they have been there 10+ years and won’t hold captain for awhile due to the lack of mandatory retirement). They are unhappy at their current carrier (I know an Endeavor guy considering the Envoy DEC position).

These people generally aren’t stupid, or have no idea what they are getting in to. It makes sense for them and their family to make this change. Whether it’s money, flow, left seat, whatever...

Read the OP. He said he’s getting these from a company handout for direct entry captains. If the people you know think this handout is BS, then great. But I took this thread as a discussion to answer his questions. Not everyone that comes to this forum understands the dynamics of how many pilots we’ve hired the last two years and what that means.

I think the better question is how many DEC are they going to hire?? If they stop hiring DEC this would be the worse place to be. If they are planning to continue and hire DEC life wouldn’t be so bad.


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The current base and line hold times aren't going to be a predictor for NHs. Attrition, NHs, and number/quality of lines are the main factors that will determine ones progression.

The other question is will there be anymore forced upgrades in next 3-6 months as guys hired 2 yrs ago get their time. I don’t see many more dec in the future.

The company is in full force right now looking for HVA. My class of forced upgrades 5 guys have since quit. Come may, I have 30 captains below me on the reserve list.


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That’s not what the company is saying. They are saying they need 300 DEC’s or else they are in big trouble. My understanding is the majority of the 17 new hires are flying very very little thus most of them are nowhere close to hitting 1,000 hours.

For example in my previous stint at Eagle it took me 3 years and 3 months on property to fly 1,000 hours.

I flew with an FO the other day who was a DEC16 hire he only has 400 hours with the company.

Not sure if he purposely didn’t want to fly or if that’s just how the cookie crumbled.


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They very well may be in full force for HVA right now but I don’t think they’ll need to for very long. I didn’t get to talk to those 5 guys you did but I’d bet their quitting had a lot to do with being forced into a situation they didn’t want. Once this wave pilots starts reaching qualifications AND seniority in their base and equipment of preference, DECs will no longer be necessary or desired.

Primarily the bate and switch.. (not to mention the reduce in bonus and no per diem in training since we were based in DFW) we were all hired into DFW then forced to go to LGA. I personally wouldn’t have came here knowing I was going to get instantly displaced to LGA


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Now that I have a line, it’s fairly easy for me to project when I’ll hit 1000 hours and it’s less than 2 years from my hire date and that’s with a 4 month new hire training footprint. However, I know everything is different for everyone. Maybe I’ve been way more successfull than others at getting flying time. For what it’s worth, I was more aggressive at going out and getting flying than some but I do know others way more aggressive than me.

Bate and switch you say? I’d say the handout the OP mentions sounds a lot like bate and switch too.

This is true^

So on this last class with the 4 forced ca slots, do those guys incur a training freeze?


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Has there been an accurate projection yet?

Only projection is what we were told by the union in the last base visit..


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Was hired around the same time, have roughly 100 more hours. I was trying to max out OT until the combination of no critical coverage and impending forced upgrade brought that to complete halt.

In ORD at least, if you wanted to max out hours you'd be closer to 650 for a late 16/early 17 hire.

Remember lots of these guys took weeks and weeks off before finishing sims. It may be a while for the DEC program to be obsolete.

Soon the DEC song will stop playing and the bottom guy is going to be hurting.

Any FO ORD that doesn't want to fly just needs to bid reserve. Senior FOs will go MONTHS without flying. It's crazy how over staffed they are right now.

Just to be clear, they don't need that many to avoid being "in big trouble." They don't need that many to maintain the current operation. That's more of a figure to achieve their goals of growth and expanding into other parts of the country and opening/reopening bases. Plus, you've got the very beginning of the big wave of 2016 new hires approaching 1,000 hours. Sky is definitely not falling. They may not be able to expand and grow back to 3,000 pilots as quickly as they'd like, but I don't think any of us could care less.

How many FO’s are upgrading a month?

Up until this point, much more than attrition. They've been front loading CAs for awhile now on these bids in anticipation of their growth. These massive vacancies haven't been to solely replace attrition. Check back next month for the next go around. That's when the next vacancy will be run.

If they are staffing for the hope of growth (if you build it, he will come) then you are correct.

If they promised AAG that we would cover this flying/growth/base expansion, then some lucky manager will have the pleasure of telling AA that we failed and can’t make it happen. The number one rule of business: Never overpromise and under-deliver (especially not will major $$$ on the line). That type of stuff can be a career killer.

Was it 2011 when American said Envoy was going to hire 800 pilots? Didn’t they only hire 400 or so? Did they say 800 so that they wouldn’t have an issue getting 400? Is it possible that if the company says they desperately need 200 dec Pilots then they really only need say half?

Well...2011 is when AA declared bankruptcy. So obviously all plans went swiftly out the window. They went from hiring like crazy to furloughing.

Nov. 29 AMR declared. Not Envoy.
https://turnaround.org/cmaextras/Carl-Marks-Competition-American-Airlines.pdf