The 20 a month outside of flow doesn’t mean they’re going to the majors. It could be guys unable to take the 2nd year payout, family issues, different opportunities or refusal to get a forced upgrade. I personally know of a middle aged guy that chose to go beck to his old job and refused the upgrade. Too bad we don’t have more information on these attrition guys

So ~7.5 year flow assuming these numbers are solid (which I know they won't be).

You using 314 as the attrition (including flow) for the year?

2401 / 314 = ~7.5 years.

Just one problem, 314 is for Jan-Jul (7 months), not Jan-Dec (12 months)

If you ratio it up. . .

314 x (12/7) = 538 projected attrition for the entire year.

2401 / 538 = ~4.5 years

Let me go back to elementary school and repeat some of the math classes there...
:)
Anyway, nowhere near the "12 year flow" doomsday numbers some keep repeating here.

Math
 

Don't forget to subtract the 100 or so who've declined the flow but not retiring in the next five years from the 2400 number before doing the math.

To come up with an accurate number, we'd also need to know how "top heavy" those attrition numbers are. Bottom of the seniority list leaving doesn't help you. But anyway, sounds like the advertised flow (6 years) is not THAT far from the truth.

Agreed. And don’t forget that as hiring picks up with all the majors, non-flow attrition will likely pick up a bit more.

Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.

Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.

I would go further and say pilots have never in history seen the kind of movement that's going to happen in the next 5 years. Assuming no 9/11 event obviously.

Well, at least never since the regionals were created. You can get a 4 year degree, 1500 hours and get on with a regional. By age 30 you can be sitting in the right seat with a legacy. By age 40 or 45 you can be sitting in the left seat, spending half your career in command of an aircraft the Wright Brothers could never have dreamed of.

Back in the 1950s/1960s guys got hired in their 20s directly into the majors, but had to sit sideways and wear two stripes for a few years. (Some even remember one stripe as an observer/flunked.) Course most of their CAs cut their teeth on DC-3s (and DC-2s) and were quick with the sextant to navigate by the stars at night.