January Upgrades
 

Good Morning,
Assuming we follow the 3 month upgrade vacancy window, this should allow upgrades to be bid again in January.

My question is, do we think they will still be displacing FO's above 950 or you think we have enough above that number who will proffer out of the FO seat?

I know, it is foolish to proffer in this environment, but at some point we are going to hit a enough qualified FO's that have the time who either dont care about the extra money, dont know about it, or just want to secure a seat in a base.

So, do you think displacements will still occur?

Thanks

I’m not sure, I would think so if we work together. I recently got my 950 hours. Please join me in not voluntarily bidding for a captain spot.

Looking at the most recent flow plan, it seems like the displacements went pretty far down the seniority list. Several 900 seniority numbered pilots were displaced.

Does any body know if there are any senior FOs that have managed to escape the displacements so far? Or are they still displacing basically every FO that has the time?

I will join you and will be putting in for a displacement instead of the proffer for sure.

He’s talking people with 950 hours, not 950 in seniority

I completely agree with you! We should all get displaced no matter the situation.

Not that I am aware of, even the most famous one in ORD still got displaced this last vacancy. You would know him from his past YouTube adventures.

Yes, 950 hours.

I'm with you. Displace only.

Tim Martins?!😁😁

Yes, and I am talking about a few people with 900 seniority numbers that I saw displaced on the most recent flow plan. My point being that is a pretty senior number to be displaced, thus supporting the idea that everybody is being displaced, not just junior pilots with 950 hours.

We all know this is going to happen. I don't think it is too far of a stretch to say forced upgrades will likely end in the next two bids. What I predict is when it happens senior FOs that want the 175 aren't going to bid a preference and then get stuck as an FO for the next three months. This is going to allow the 175 to go artificially junior.

With that said I don't think anyone is going to get burned by getting bypassed and missing the forced upgrade. This allows you to upgrade and spend less time on reserve.

Recent information leads me to believe you are correct. I think we will be hiring DECS for at least the first half of 2019, which means we will also be force upgrading FO's. My guess is summer of 2019 to start setting a proffer if you really want to upgrade. Going to be leaving my proffer blank and going with displacements only.

I have heard that management believes we need another 120 ish DEC’s.

I had thought the next two bids, but with what I just heard I think we will see the forced upgrades through the end of next year, especially for those that have more flight time than their peers. As in you have qualifying 121.436 time when you are hired.

Not really, I opted for the standing vacancy and my training date is 3 months after the award date. So 3 months as an FO on captain pay, just counting minimum 72 hours/month and I'm almost breaking even with the seat lock bonus.

Add some more credit or OT and you're breaking even and your not risking riding out the CRJ into the sunset. Just depends on what you want and what your seniority is.

Edit: Unless you're specifically talking about proffering to displace? It was hard to tell.

I am not knocking the standing vacancy route, just that it is non traditional as isn't always available. Pretty sure if you get a forced upgrade you are sent to training after the proffers as well, also giving you pretty good time as an FO at Captain pay.

My comment was most specifically that if you want a certain base/aircraft and you know you can hold it, then making them displace you to the left seat is the smart move in this environment.

Glad your standing vacancy is working out.

Does anyone have any good info besides past precident on when the next vacancy will actually be.

They run the vacancy every three months like clockwork

Give it 3 weeks.

Do you have any good info besides past precedent that the sun will rise tomorrow?

Thats all we can go on until management tells us otherwise, however it has been running at every 3 months for a long time. I think many would be shocked if we didn't run it.

Keep in mind, DEC's are still being hired, we have fleet growth on the 175 side and the captain reserve lists, at least OCL are almost always being taken down to minimums. All of that, plus past precedent pushes the belief that we will get another one here in a few weeks.

Wait.. do you have insider info that it won't? Rumor seems plausible.

Dougie was spotted leaving Target with a new Maglite (and a huge quantity of Budweiser??), no sunrise CONFIRMED.