Flow Dates
 

Alright so reading on another forum, I’m seeing that the Alpa projected flow date for its most junior new hire is 2029.

So that’s pretty close to 10 years.

So understanding this doesn’t count for attrition and what not let’s just say that’s 7.5 years to wait for a flow.

So with you junior guys that are on the forum, what are recruiters telling you in regards to time to flow?

All advertising materials still says 5.5 yrs, been that way for the last 3. That ship has sailed.

Again, the attrition not-included talk. Between the last ALPA update an this one, there was one... ONE, person senior to me that's left prior to flow according to same ALPA list and I have about 2.5 years left according to said list. Our attrition is extremely junior. Don't count on it reducing your flow.

I think that the truth is somewhere in between for a new hire at any of the 3 WOs. 5.5 years seems overly optimistic. But 10 years seems unrealistic, especially not accounting for outside attrition.

2020 is the first year that the doors sort of blow wide open for the retirements at the legacies. American has said they want to hire 1300 and Delta has said they want to hire over 1,000 in 2020 alone. Hiring will pickup everywhere and so will attrition. At PSA we’re seeing attrition climb back to the levels we saw before the pay raises. And this is just the first year of big retirement numbers. It accelerates from here and doesn’t even begin to slowly taper off until the late 2020s.

Moral of the story, flow won’t be 10 years. It will likely be closer to 6-7. But in the coming hiring environment no one should really be depending on the flow if the goal is any legacy. And I’ll also add that not everything is peaches and cream at AAG right now. They are vastly underperforming both DA and UA at a time of record profits and have been thus far extremely slow to respond to market trends. They are carrying a ton of debt and when the next economic downturn happens they will likely feel a lot of pain. A lot can change with the flow and AAG in the coming years.

There are a lot of lazy people at this company without apps out waiting in line for their flow number. There are a lot of people hoping attrition is going to decrease flow times but, as mentioned earlier, it's very junior.

It is amazing how much money the whole flow program saves AAG. Seems like most guys get a few hundred hours as Captain and if they don’t get hired somewhere they just give up and wait for the flow. I would be willing to bet that if you compared percentages of other companies besides the WOs they actually have MORE movement from off the top.

Meanwhile the company is paying is peanuts and not even living up to the mediocre LOA the union agreed to.

Thats because a majority of those guys will have that 5 year flow. That will change when the people hired in the past 2 years start becoming competitive.

It's different if you have 2 years left to flow, compared to 6 years left.

And if you think other regionals have 20+ pilots leaving to the majors every single month from the top...
Wanna buy a bridge?

I’d take that bet

Yea the opposite is true. If you didn’t consider the fact that the majority of WO Captains are leaving to AA due to the flow, the WOs still send the most pilots to the legacies every month of any other airlines.

Basically if you’re flowing 20 /month and another 2-3 leave for another legacy besides AA, you’re still losing 23 pilots that month. What other regional out there is sending 23 pilots /month to a legacy airline?

I said PERCENTAGE. And not necessarily to legacy I’m just talking movement. If you have to work at AA, this has been your best bet, but the PERCENTAGE of pilots that are from Envoy will be decreasing with the next flow groups.

You have confirmed what I said. Captain may have started out with several apps, but when they don’t get the call, they just figure I’ll be at AA anyway, what’s a few extra years or months.

Everyone seems to think Envoy is the only way to a better job. You guys have been drinking from the punch bowl and just confirmed Ric and Pedro’s indentured servitude plan is working.

Just saying. Something comparable would be like saying “Skywest sent 700 of the 1000 most senior pilots last year to the majors”

That obviously did not happen. I’ll bet one years worth of per diem on this.

If all the other regionals aren’t losing pilots off the top, why are they still hiring so many pilots? Has any regional grown significantly? I ran into the captain that interviewed me at another regional a year later and he said they had zero net gain of pilots. Just like Envoy, I’m sure there is some attrition the first year, but that can’t be all of it.

The majors and LCCs are hiring smaller percentage of exclusively military fixed wing pilots every year. Where do you think those pilots come from? Thin air? I’m not saying it is easy, far from it. But the entire time I flew as an FO there wasn’t more than a few captains that had updated an application anywhere in the last year.

The flow invites laziness, which is exactly what AAG wants and they are paying us less because of it.

Endeavor, Republic and Skywest are all growing rapidly from what I understand.

I agree, a lot of captains I fly with in DFW are either lifers, or guys hired 2016-2017 that hit the flow sweet spot. Can you blame them for being complacent? I mean some of them have a sub 5 year flow. A no interview flow through in 5 years to a major? Yeah I might be big chillin until I flow in that situation.

However I think this will change as guys hired late 2017 and later get competitive experience. Except a small portion, most wont want to wait another 5+ years for flow when they meet mins at other quality airlines.

Time will tell.