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15% smaller is "the best case scenario" - RW

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15% smaller is "the best case scenario" - RW

Old 06-30-2020, 11:15 AM
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Unhappy 15% smaller is "the best case scenario" - RW

"We anticipate being at minimum 15% smaller ... from where we originally planned for this year. Unfortunately, this is the best case scenario. If passenger traffic, and most importantly, business travel does not recover, there could be more negative adjustments within the industry. This means we now find ourselves with a surplus of pilots."

Furlough numbers?
Incoming concessions from the company?
Displacements with the new 60/40 "LRJ"/"SRJ" model?
More COLAs?
Increased flow to AA (lololololol)?
Return of QuickTrade?
AA wholly-owned regional consolidation?
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:30 AM
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I want to hear THKooj's spin on this.....
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:31 AM
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It's almost like everybody who warned people about the pitfalls of Flow were right.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:32 AM
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Anything is possible at this point.

The problem I see is that we're seeing another resurgence of COVID-19 this summer when it was supposed to be dying off due to the heat wave. At this point, it seems likely that it could be continue into the fall and beyond. To top it off, the novel coronavirus is mutating which could make for an interesting 'flu season' this fall/winter. Regardless of the data showing how low the fatality rate is and any way the virus is getting politicized, a good number of people are scared of the virus and it seems more likely than not that it will impact the recovery to some extent. How much? That's yet to be determined.

What does all that mean? It seems LIKELY that non-essential business travel is going to remain virtually nil for the remainder of the year. International travel is LIKELY going to remain limited to non-existent for the remainder of the year (also: see EU banning U.S. from international travel). It seems LIKELY that the economic fallout from the virus has not been fully realized both domestically and globally, thus recovery for leisure may be stunted. It seems LIKELY that AAG is in significant financial trouble since their betting the farm on domestic network recovery. It seems LIKELY that this industry has been setback years as companies shrink to profitability.

However, all of this is speculation on observations. I'm hoping for the best, but I have this sinking feeling that it's only going to get worst fo the airline industry before it gets better.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Ciceda View Post
It's almost like everybody who warned people about the pitfalls of Flow were right.

Pitfalls of flow? I’m pretty sure every airline is in this spot right now. Flow has nothing to do with it
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Freighthotdog View Post
Pitfalls of flow? I’m pretty sure every airline is in this spot right now. Flow has nothing to do with it
I am pretty sure that the main reason for shrink is that AA mainline pilots are a hard no on even temporary scope relief. Scope is going to cause the AA Regional fleet to shrink.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by pangolin View Post
I am pretty sure that the main reason for shrink is that AA mainline pilots are a hard no on even temporary scope relief. Scope is going to cause the AA Regional fleet to shrink.

Shrink as in reduction of the 140s/-200s? Or even more?
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Freighthotdog View Post
Pitfalls of flow? I’m pretty sure every airline is in this spot right now. Flow has nothing to do with it
Just saying that people accepted lower pay and QOL rules because of Flow, and now flow is no more. Not wishing ill on any pilot group. Just pointing out that all the people who used to give out advice that you absolutely need to go someplace with flow "to have that in your back pocket" was giving out horrible advice. You pick a regional based on location, movement, pay, and QOL. Career progression will come no matter where you work during the good times, you do not need flow.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Freighthotdog View Post
Pitfalls of flow? I’m pretty sure every airline is in this spot right now. Flow has nothing to do with it
To be fair, most of us bashing flow were bashing it based on the idea that people saw value in it "as a back up" and since they saw value in it we, as a group, were accepting less pay and work conditions than our peers at other regionals. Well, hiring stopped and so did the back up. Flow was never a good back up. Flow WAS a good crutch when hiring was good. That's about it... OH! it was also a good hiring tool by AAG to staff the regions too.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Freighthotdog View Post
Shrink as in reduction of the 140s/-200s? Or even more?

All the 200s are already gone at PSA. Only 7/9 now.
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