View Poll Results: When does AA go bankrupt?
Q4, 2020
7
5.98%
Q1-Q2, 2021
29
24.79%
Q3-Q4, 2021
44
37.61%
2022
5
4.27%
2023 & Beyond
2
1.71%
“AA will never lose money again,” ENY flows < 5 years
11
9.40%
They won’t declare bankruptcy.
19
16.24%
Voters: 117. You may not vote on this poll
When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?
When Does AAG Declare Bankruptcy (Yet Again)?
08-29-2020, 11:28 AM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Position: CA
Posts: 191
Since we’re making predictions, anyone wanna guess at what happens with the industry? CARES 2.0, more rounds of furloughs across XYZ carriers, COVID-19 returns with a vengeance this winter, the Russian vaccine reigns in the zombie apocalypse, etc.?
My serious prediction is that the economic damage from COVID compounds through the remainder of this year and 2021 resulting in more rounds of furloughs and bankruptcies at U.S. carriers next year short of government intervention.
My less serious prediction: Elon Musk is behind the UFOs/UAPs from declassified Navy footage, we see another revolution in air travel, and due to speed and efficiency of these new aircraft, we see major disruption of the airline business model as we know it today.
My serious prediction is that the economic damage from COVID compounds through the remainder of this year and 2021 resulting in more rounds of furloughs and bankruptcies at U.S. carriers next year short of government intervention.
My less serious prediction: Elon Musk is behind the UFOs/UAPs from declassified Navy footage, we see another revolution in air travel, and due to speed and efficiency of these new aircraft, we see major disruption of the airline business model as we know it today.
08-29-2020, 12:25 PM
#5
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,480
Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot
Since we’re making predictions, anyone wanna guess at what happens with the industry? CARES 2.0, more rounds of furloughs across XYZ carriers, COVID-19 returns with a vengeance this winter, the Russian vaccine reigns in the zombie apocalypse, etc.?
Wish it were different, but that’s what my crystal ball says...
08-29-2020, 03:06 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,649
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Aircraft account for 12% of the CO2 produced in transportation, and are arguably the least efficient, especially 50 seat regionals. And pilots, who “everybody knows” are rich and arrogant 1%ers, are arguably some of the least empathetic people out there. So in the end, I don’t think the party of the GND is going to really give a damn about including pilot pay maintenance funds in CARES 2.0, even if it does pass, while the Repubs, wanting to hold down the cost of whatever is finally passed, aren’t going to fall on their swords over it either.
Wish it were different, but that’s what my crystal ball says...
Wish it were different, but that’s what my crystal ball says...
In addition, Biden doesn’t want anything to do with the GND party as it is a sure fire way to lose this November. Don’t think they will have much I influence on this one.
08-29-2020, 03:30 PM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 203
DP said during the 2Q SOTA there's enough liquidity to last at least a year at the current cash burn rate. That was before any furloughs were announced. I guarantee 100% of the people who put "1Q 2021" have never looked at AAG's balance sheet.
08-29-2020, 04:45 PM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 774
Originally Posted by flybywp
DP said during the 2Q SOTA there's enough liquidity to last at least a year at the current cash burn rate. That was before any furloughs were announced. I guarantee 100% of the people who put "1Q 2021" have never looked at AAG's balance sheet.
I’m bearish on the company, but the big bills aren’t due until ‘22. The debt we have makes us carry a certain amount of liquidity or there are penalties. From what I’ve read, ~$4bill is our red line. I think we have around 15 bill right now, so we have some time, but desperately need some good news. And yes, we will be the first to declare this time. Delta and united are in the same boat, but they will submerge well after us.
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