ClappedOut145

I would venture to guess that all of them will be going through long term. Half didn’t finish training, a large portion was based in NYC, and they are recalled based on what is needed and they’ll have to re-bid for aircraft like new hires.

But seriously

The post this was answering was a question about AA furloughs, not ENY. You are probably correct about ENY.

Some of the furloughs from AA would be from the E190 so they’ll obviously need long term on something else. Hopefully a lot of the furloughees from the 73 and ‘bus were already on the plane they wanted. I don’t honestly know how the recall works in their contract. Does anyone know if the pilots get to pick their new aircraft or if the company assigns it? Assuming they are offering both NB aircraft.

Cyio

This seems to be what I have heard as well. How long it will take to get through 1800 or so pilots is anyones guess, I was thinking 18 months, with 100 a month going in. Obviously COVID could speed up or delay that as could efficiency at AA's training department.

ClappedOut145

thx. Regarding AA, does anyone know how many training events were caused by parking the 190/757/767 & A330 plus opening crew bases for wide bodies in CLT? The cost has to be astronomical.

But seriously

If the majority of the events are really just 5 days, I’m sure they can do it faster than that if they want to. The “if they want to” is an important caveat.

5 days is not much morethan a recurrent cycle. They already do at least 15000 of those a year. Adding 1800 shouldn’t be too hard.

Cyio

Yeah that is a fair point and one I thought of. Keep in mind they still have recurrent to compete for the active ones plus now these and also COVID concerns. Obviously the COVID issue should diminish over time.

Ultimately, like you said, it will come down to how quickly they feel the need to have them back. I don’t think they will need all 1800 back right away.

FAIPMAFIA

So would you say hiring won’t start back up till summer of 2022?

Excargodog

ALL MD80 E190 B757 B767 A330-300 pilots will pretty much require new types, but it is far worse than that. There’s a domino effect. The senior pilots tend to bid the popular bases and most lucrative equipment. Junior people get what’s left. But the PSP has stopped that domino effect - so you have senior guys not flying currently that will outbid the junior guys in the same equipment, at least for upgrades and possibly for displacements.

it will be a fustercluck for the first year or two.

uavking

I stick with my guess of Q1 '22. Upthread I mentioned the rumors around DL hiring as early as Q4 this year. While DL didn't officially furlough, they had a large number of early outs, a very large number of people sitting UNA (unassigned) for awhile, and some new hires who never made it through the initial cycle. This is in addition to fleet retirements and base closures that shuffled alot of bodies.

The point of mentioning DL is that AA has all of that as well as substantially more projected (pre-Rona, so some adjustment via early outs) retirements over the next 5-10 years. Will AA go into 2022 a smaller airline that it was in Q1 2020? Yes, but so will DL and UA. Just to maintain that smaller airline in the face of retirements, AA will have to hire. In order to fly the summer '22 schedule, grab market share, and eventually return to its previous size as the industry recovers, AA will have to hire. Take all that for what it's worth, but I also wouldn't give into the apocalyptic doom and gloom.

Cyio

Yeah AA will come out of all this, much like the other big three. What will need to happen in order to get there is anybody’s guess. Shrink, BK 11, concessions, a little of both? It really is a shot in the dark and we all have our theories, but they are best educated guesses.

I truly hope they recover quickly, lots of amazing pilots working for them that need it to happen.