pitchattitude

You, as well as any, know that the five year flow is a fantasy. I know you’re not still at Envoy so I know you haven’t been reading Ric’s propaganda and don’t believe it anyway.

If Covid hadn’t happened, there WOULD have been a VERY small group that would have flowed in five years. And after that it is a mathematical impossibility for it to continue. Hiring more than flowing leads to longer and longer flow times.

Varsity

The best chance was for the early 2016 hires to go in 2021.

Instead we will get 2013 hires going in late 2021.

Envoy hired 1,000 pilots in 2017, so anyone beyond that bubble flowing in 5-6 years is mathematically impossible. It could take 4 years just to flow the 2017 hires alone.

Cujo665

I get almost everything they send of importance, indirectly of course. Legal action can take years, so careful documentation of events and activity is important. Example, they used to get ****ed and vindictive when I'd say things like calling them stupid for closing Miami and New York and that they'd have to reopen NY within a year, and Miami within three. They used to get ****ed and vindictive when told their policies were leading the operation in an unsafe direction.... (we see how that turned out), they got ****ed over me telling guys to protect their tickets because they had wrongly suspended with pay and removed a crew over bug splatter that a ground crew had reported as them ignoring a bird strike....
Litterally 80% of the MEC at the time told Pedro when he was new in 2013 that when Winkley left VP of Flight Ops, not to put RW in that spot. We told him then that he wasn't the right guy, that he'd sacrifice safety for profit, was too egotistical and unwilling to admit and correct mistakes, that he takes things personally and is very vindictive..... yep, they ended up right where we told them he'd take them.

The flow was approaching the 5-5.5 year mark when Covid hit. If Covid had not hit, Envoy would have been flowing pilots at about 5-5.5 years time in service.... then, with the newer slower flow, those times would start climbing again.

They will do what they have to in order to keep the flow at or around 5 years. Do not forget attrition will pick up to a furious pace as the shortage worsens also, many more will jump ship to other carriers long before flowing. Regionals like Gojets will be toast and their pilots left to recycle themselves. In fact, times will get tough for all the contract/vendor companies. They have to generate a profit or go bankrupt. They can't afford to keep raising pilot pay. The WO carriers are run as cost centers more than functioning airlines meant to generate a profit. As a result, they can throw increased flow for free, and raise wages to run the WO at a loss, while still generating profits at the mainline.

The regional industry will contract more over the next several years. Pilots will be going directly from University/College straight into an LCC. Look at Frontier, they are already taking Embry Riddle graduates straight from school. It's happening already.

pitchattitude

IDK exactly what the relationship between Frontier and Riddle is but I don’t think this is going to be a major shift in the industry. All indications is this is a carrot to attend Riddle and there will only be a small number hired this way. Not like the days of old at places like Mesa Pilot development where you were pretty much guaranteed a job after you spent your money there.

KirillTheThrill

It’s most likely a response to the Sun country and UND relationship that started back in early 2018. Flight instructors who were accepted into the sunny program had to build 1,500 hours total time instructing for the University instead of the 1,000 restricted and off to a regional.

pitchattitude

That definitely sounds like a pay to play and money maker for the school! Pay for an extra 500 over priced hours to get a job at a marginally better carrier.

pitchattitude

What’s the cost of an extra 500 hours verses going to a regional six to twelve months earlier? Just like anything other than a top tier flying job, it has to be the right thing for the individual. Even then, let’s face it, FedEx and UPS are two of the highest paying career carriers, but a lot of folks don’t want to do it because it’s not a good fit for them.

Happyflyer

Yea but unless you show up with Turbine PIC time, by the time your eligible to upgrade LCC/ACMI cargo are looking at you.

8-10k a month as an RJ CA, with 2-3 years of your 7 year flow behind you. Or LCC/cargo FO with zero turbine pic and likely 0 chance of ever leaving the LCC/cargo for anything better until you upgrade there.

Decide if you want to be an FO at legacy or CA at an LCC/cargo, those can likely happen around the same time in your career.

Getting hired at a legacy is difficult with only 1,000TPIC if you started at a regional with all single engine piston civilian time. Plenty of people jump the flow or get hired at Delta, United or FedEx. Plenty start at a regional with more the 50 hours multi piston, or have an inside track, or benefit from affirmative action, or got involved in the training department.

1,500hour flight instructor who upgrades at 1,200 company time has, 2700tt and after 1,000pic has 3,700tt and really isn’t very competitive at a legacy.

It takes 5 or more years from date of hire to get 1,000TPIC if you start with 0 121, so your really only 2 years away form the flow buy that point.

No flow program can sustain 5 years from date of hire for long.

CptnDave

Not at all, guys who wanted this would just sit around and instruct for an additional 500 hours. Nobody was really interested in this and Sun Country lowered the mins to 1,000 and some people began showing interest, though its still not a super popular option I only know a hand full of people who applied. And even though Sun Country said they were ready for UND guys I don't think their training department was prepared for pilots with zero turbine experience, some folks rose to the occasion and other resigned, personally I think they'd need to adjust their expectations for programs like these to truly be successful. Regionals know they're getting hiring fresh CFI's and the success rates are much higher.

at6d

Assume that there is no flow at any airline. Apply accordingly.