Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3877970)

when did they give away 12 days off? EagleVoy had min 12 days off as far back as the 2000's IIRC.

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3875824)

I would not expect an extension of any serious length of time, and making it permanent won't happen. Once the shortage is over, they'll let the rates snap back at a timeof their choosing, while moving more flying in-house and force the other contract airlines to match the new cost structure or lose more flying. They can also simply let it expire and leave it alone until they decide to use the snap back.

Right now pilot staffing is still the currency on getting and keeping flying. Once the pilot supply isn't an issue the race to the bottom will start again. They will use the snap back to cut costs, pulling flying back into the WO's will cause hiring to slow/stop at the vendor airlines. The Shiny Jet Syndrome will keep the seats filled at the WO's as hiring slows at the vendors. The vendors will be forced to accept concessions to be cost competative and the whipsaw will be in full swing again. They've already reduced or outright stopped most bonus programs... so the cutting has already started.

Right now, the temporary glut of pilots is due to the Boeing, Airbus and P&W issues. As those iron themselves out the hiring will pick back up.... then you've got about another 4-7 years of crazy mainline hiring to go depending on carrier before things slow to a more normal pace. That will be right about the time, or within a year or two after, that your CBA becomes amendable. Once that happens, expect them to use the snap back and start the process. Oh, they'll probably threaten to divest, sell, or shut down one or two of the regionals before then too.

It's just how they roll

Originally Posted by BurnCycle (Post 3878151)

No, it was 11 before the PBS concessions. Also, I disagree on the snapback. Sure there are a lot of pilots wiling to fly for the lower rates, but that will take time to train them and get them on the line. Meanwhile, you'll have a mass exodus of pilots, especially with families, that won't sit back and take a 50% pay cut with a smile on their face, especially when, at worst, you can go to a non-affiliated regional with longevity pay, and not be blocked from being hired due to being at a WO.

Originally Posted by bonvoyage (Post 3878755)

It only takes one regional to lower pay and the rest will follow suit. Then what?

Originally Posted by BurnCycle (Post 3879970)

There's that can-do optimism that keeps this field so fulfilling.

Originally Posted by ClappedOut145 (Post 3879988)

Another AA wholly-owned carrier had a huge part in holding the industry back not too long ago. Hopefully that sort of thing never happens again.

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3877970)

when did they give away 12 days off? EagleVoy had min 12 days off as far back as the 2000's IIRC.

Originally Posted by mesteve (Post 3877499)

That seems like an earful lot to give away for PBS…. Was the line bid that bad before?

Originally Posted by BurnCycle (Post 3878151)

No, it was 11 before the PBS concessions. Also, I disagree on the snapback. Sure there are a lot of pilots wiling to fly for the lower rates, but that will take time to train them and get them on the line. Meanwhile, you'll have a mass exodus of pilots, especially with families, that won't sit back and take a 50% pay cut with a smile on their face, especially when, at worst, you can go to a non-affiliated regional with longevity pay, and not be blocked from being hired due to being at a WO.

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3880225)

you won't be going to the competing regional when they bring the flying back into Envoy, PSA & PDT. The contract companies will slow hiring as the block hours get slowly transferred. When there's a surplus of pilots the whipsaw works. It stopped working in 2014-2015 as the pilot shortage hit. Staffing became the key currency to getting block hours and planes..... that will be reverting to the regional with the flying getting the planes.
Thats just how it works.

Will they snap back fully? Nope, my guess is they'll do it piecemeal as they move the block hours.... telling you to take it or watch the flying given to somebody else, or you'll be sold, or you'll be spun off... it's the same every time. With the RLA the way it is you really can't stop it. Nobody wants to hear that, but it's the truth.