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Originally Posted by adspilot
(Post 2006801)
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs (ON PROPERITY) and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
Originally Posted by deadreckoning
(Post 2006809)
True if X is less than F. But if X is larger than F (which in this day and age probably won't happen) then your logic is thrown out the window.
I'm pretty sure your math classes stopped at year 1 or 2 of college. |
Originally Posted by adspilot
(Post 2006801)
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
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Originally Posted by adspilot
(Post 2006815)
Not sure what you think X, and F are but you are way off. Anyways I tried to clarify that F is the total number of FOs on property.
F = UX So by your logic the total number of FO's on property is equal to the number of upgrades multiplied by the number of new hires. Let's say we have 1000 total FO's on property, upgrade 50 months. So we need 20 new hires per month according to your math. Or if upgrade goes to 20 months we need 50 new hires per month. what am I missing? |
You guys just ruined this thread.
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That second equation just looks so wrong....
Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006445)
Don't certain recalls count as new hires for our flow purposes? I thought this is what they said recently.
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You guys are nuts. You are attempting to correlate management maneuvers with the logical, structured world of mathematics. All of us know that 2+2=4, but management will tell you it equals -1, and will operate accordingly despite any contrary analysis on our part.
You need to take your logic right on outta here. No place for it in ENY employee relations. |
Originally Posted by AdiosMikeFox
(Post 2007227)
You guys are nuts. You are attempting to correlate management maneuvers with the logical, structured world of mathematics. All of us know that 2+2=4, but management will tell you it equals -1, and will operate accordingly despite any contrary analysis on our part.
You need to take your logic right on outta here. No place for it in ENY employee relations. |
Simply put, the flow is NOT contingent on new hires. Envoy will continue to flow and will shrink to whatever size that pilot retention and attraction allows. If we get 40 new hires a month, expect to see upgrades to be 300 - 360 a year as a one to one replacement for flows and even a little growth. The more new hires we get will result in more flying and more upgrades. I believe that Doug Parker's plan for envoy has always been for it to be a 1500 pilot company. If we have more pilot than that, great, but he doesn't see a recruitment problem until we approach that target. I believe that it will be at that time that we will start to see endeavor style bonuses as a recruitment tool.
I think that contractual gains by the Republic pilots is great but if Bedford does file for bankruptcy, the pilots there could still be in a bad position. I think that as the pilot "shortage" deepens, we will see Doug Parker more apt to pay out financial incentives to the wholly owned companies before he will pay more to contractor companies like Republic. This protects AAG assets and makes it easier for him to remove those costs when he no longer feels they are necessary. |
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